Counties across Southern California are off to a near record dry start this rainy season, with Los Angeles only having received about 5% of the rain it normally would. It’s been 276 days since downtown L.A. experienced significant rainfall.
Why it matters: Dry conditions and the peak of Santa Ana wind season mean that large, unstoppable fires are still possible. Dry winters can have detrimental affects on native vegetation, which rely on just a few months of rain to sustain themselves through an eight-month dry period. The latest report from the Drought Monitor shows that abnormally dry conditions (which precede drought conditions) are growing across the central and southern parts of the state.
The weather ahead: The NWS is saying there’s a 50% to 60% chance that there’ll be below normal precipitation over the next 8-14 days. Any strong wind event will likely bring fire weather conditions.
The good news: The snowpack across the Sierra Nevada is at 115% of normal, which is a good sign for water availability later in the year.
As Southern California residents eagerly anticipated the start of the rainy season to help alleviate the ongoing drought conditions, they were met with disappointment as the season got off to a dismal start. Despite initial hopes for significant rainfall, the region has only seen sparse showers and below-average precipitation levels.
The lack of substantial rainfall has raised concerns about water shortages, wildfire risks, and overall environmental impact. Many are worried about the impact on agriculture, wildlife, and water resources in the region.
As Californians continue to hope for much-needed rain, it serves as a reminder of the importance of water conservation and sustainable practices. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for more precipitation in the coming months to help alleviate these dry conditions.
The year 2024 has been a dismal one for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio Inc. (NIO), with its stock plunging about 51% year-to-date. Macro pressures in China, price wars triggered by intense competition, and concerns over the company’s profitability weighed on Nio stock. Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Nio, with analysts’ average price target indicating a rebound in the stock from current levels based on optimism about the launch of the company’s mass models and the possibility of improvement in financials.
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Nio’s Recent Performance
Nio’s third-quarter performance was a mixed bag. The company’s revenue declined 2.1% year-over-year to RMB 18.7 billion ($2.7 billion) but was up 7% sequentially. The year-over-year fall in the topline reflected lower average selling prices, which more than offset a 12% rise in Q3 deliveries to 61,855 units.
On the positive side, Nio’s gross margin expanded to 10.7% from 8% in Q3 2024, driven by the company’s cost optimization efforts and higher sales volume. Moreover, the company’s free cash flow turned positive in the third quarter of 2024.
Looking ahead, Nio expects Q4 deliveries to grow in the range of 43.9% to 49.9% year-over-year and revenue growth between 15.0% and 19.2%. The company aims to double its sales in 2025, with estimated sales of around 240,000 from the models under its Onvo sub-brand. Additionally, it is optimistic about its Firefly sub-brand contributing to the topline growth when its deliveries commence in the first half of 2025. The company is also upbeat about its ET9 model under the Nio brand.
Analysts Are Divided on Nio Stock
Amid the ongoing challenges, Wall Street is divided on Nio stock. Earlier this month, Citi analyst Jeff Chung reiterated a Buy rating on Nio stock with a price target of $8.9 (nearly 99% upside potential). The analyst noted that management is targeting group-level breakeven in 2026, driven by Nio brand’s monthly sales of 25,000 units with an average selling price (ASP) of RMB 350,000 and a gross margin of 20% and ONVO brand’s monthly sales of 35,000 to 45,000 units with an ASP of RMB 220,000 -250,000 and a gross margin of 15%.
Chung added that Nio’s breakeven target is also based on limiting its research & development (R&D) expense growth to less than 10% and controlling selling, general, and administrative expenses.
Meanwhile, in a research note on Chinese autos, Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee reiterated a Hold rating on NIO stock. Based on first-time auto insurance volumes, the analyst noted that November retail auto volumes in China grew 23.1% year-over-year, with mass-market brand sales seeing a significant surge of 28.7%. Despite encouraging month-to-date December sales, Lee expects China’s overall auto demand to decline 5% in 2025 due to the potential end of supportive policies and challenging macro conditions.
Is Nio a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, Nio scores a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks based on six Buys, four Holds, and two Sells. The average Nio stock price target of $5.99 implies 34% upside potential.
Conclusion
While Nio bulls are optimistic about the company’s future prospects, other analysts are concerned about the fact that it remains unprofitable. Moreover, macro uncertainty in China and intense competition in the EV space continue to be concerning. Nonetheless, the Street’s average price target indicates a rebound in the stock from current levels based on expectations of improvement in financials and optimism about new models.
As we near the end of 2025, many investors are wondering if Nio stock will rebound after a dismal year. The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer has faced numerous challenges in the past year, including supply chain disruptions, chip shortages, and increased competition in the EV market.
Despite these obstacles, Nio remains a strong player in the EV industry, with a loyal customer base and innovative technology. The company’s focus on sustainable mobility and cutting-edge design has garnered a strong following among consumers.
While Nio’s stock price may have suffered in 2025, many analysts believe that the company has the potential to rebound in the coming years. With the global shift towards electric vehicles and increased government support for clean energy initiatives, Nio is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends.
Investors who believe in Nio’s long-term potential may see this as an opportunity to buy low and hold onto their shares for the long term. While there are no guarantees in the stock market, Nio’s track record of innovation and growth suggests that the company has the potential to bounce back from a challenging year and deliver strong returns for investors in the future.
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