Tag: Divisional

  • Who will turn heads in divisional round?




    As the NFL playoffs continue into the divisional round, all eyes will be on the top teams and star players. But who will be the unexpected standout that turns heads and steals the spotlight?

    From breakout rookies to under-the-radar veterans, there are several players who have the potential to make a big impact in the divisional round. Keep an eye on these players who could be the talk of the weekend:

    1. Rookie sensation Joe Burrow, quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals, has been making waves all season with his impressive play. Can he continue his success and lead the Bengals to a playoff upset?

    2. Deebo Samuel, wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers, has been a dual threat on offense and could be the X-factor in their matchup against the Green Bay Packers.

    3. Defensive lineman Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams is a force to be reckoned with and could wreak havoc on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense.

    4. Titans running back Derrick Henry is known for his physical running style and could dominate the field against the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense.

    5. Buffalo Bills’ wide receiver Gabriel Davis has been stepping up in the absence of injured star receiver Stefon Diggs and could have a breakout performance against the tough Kansas City Chiefs.

    These are just a few of the players who have the potential to make a big impact in the divisional round. Keep an eye on these players as they look to turn heads and make a name for themselves in the playoffs.

    Tags:

    • NFL divisional round predictions
    • Divisional round standout players
    • Divisional round impact players
    • Key players to watch in divisional round
    • Divisional round game changers
    • Divisional round breakout stars
    • Divisional round top performers
    • Divisional round players to keep an eye on
    • Divisional round potential MVPs
    • Divisional round game-changing players

    #turn #heads #divisional

  • NFL playoffs divisional round: Picks, schedule, odds, injuries


    The divisional playoff round for the 2024 NFL season has four great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know. On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs take on C.J. Stroud and the Texans to get things started. Then the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels tries to stay hot against the Lions. On Sunday, the Rams travel to Philadelphia to face Saquon Barkley and his Eagles. And finally, it’s Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in Buffalo — a showdown of MVP candidates for a chance to go to the AFC Championship Game.

    Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to all four games, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X factor to watch, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. The ESPN Research team also provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Finally, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.

    Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full divisional slate.

    Jump to a matchup:
    HOU-KC | WSH-DET
    LAR-PHI | BAL-BUF

    Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: KC -8 (41.5 O/U)

    Texans storyline to watch: The Texans’ defense sacked quarterback Patrick Mahomes only once in a Week 16 loss, even though Houston was tied for fourth in sacks this season (49). This week, the pass rush must come alive to give the Texans a chance for the upset. On the flip side, Houston’s offense must flow through running back Joe Mixon — if he plays. Mixon is listed as questionable because of an ankle injury. But the Texans are 7-3 when he averages more than 4.0 yards per carry and 2-3 when he doesn’t. — DJ Bien-Aime

    Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs made their living on third downs during the regular season, extending drives 48.5% of the time, which was the second-best rate in the league. But the Texans had one of the best third-down defenses, giving up conversions only 35.9% of the time. The Chiefs converted seven of 13 tries (54%) against the Texans in Week 16, which is a reason they won 27-19. They’ll need that same success again. — Adam Teicher

    Stat to know: Houston’s C.J. Stroud (23) will be the youngest starting quarterback to face a defending Super Bowl champion in the postseason. The youngest to win in that situation was Kerry Collins (24) against the Cowboys in the 1996 NFC divisional round. — ESPN Research

    Bold prediction: Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis will record at least 1.5 sacks. Karlaftis, who had 8.0 sacks this season, will be up against rookie tackle Blake Fisher, who has a below-average pass block win rate (85.6%). And he’ll be trying to chase down Stroud, who has a higher than average 8% sack rate. — Walder

    Matchup X factor: Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. To upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Texans must disrupt the pocket and speed up Mahomes’ internal clock. Anderson, who had 11 sacks and 30 pressures this season, will have opportunities to win off the edge in a matchup against right tackle Jawaan Taylor. — Bowen

    Injuries: Texans | Chiefs

    Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 15-2 this season but are just 7-10 against the spread (ATS). The only other playoff team with a losing record against the spread is the Texans, who are 8-10 ATS after covering in the wild-card round. Read more. — ESPN Research

    Officiating nugget: Referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for most in the NFL. That trend should be of particular note to the Chiefs, who were flagged the second-most times (29) for offensive holding. The Texans had 22, tied for 14th most. — Seifert

    Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 26, Texans 24
    Moody’s pick: Chiefs 24, Texans 17
    Walder’s pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 13
    FPI prediction: KC, 62.7% (by an average of 4.6 points)


    Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -9 (55.5 O/U)

    Commanders storyline to watch: If Washington wants to beat top-seeded Detroit, it must continue to have success on key downs offensively and keep the Lions’ offense on the sidelines. The good news for the Commanders is rookie Jayden Daniels has the NFL’s best QBR on third and fourth downs (93.5) with 12 touchdowns to two interceptions. He has a perfect 100.0 QBR on fourth down, completing eight of eight throws for two touchdowns and seven first downs. — John Keim

    Lions storyline to watch: Lions running back David Montgomery says he is excited to return for the divisional round after sitting out Detroit’s final three regular-season games because of an MCL injury. Montgomery says he is confident in the knee and “wouldn’t be out there if I wasn’t ready.” In his absence, Detroit’s other RB Jahmyr Gibbs has carried the load, with a career-best four touchdowns in the regular season finale versus Minnesota. But Gibbs told ESPN that he has “missed [Montgomery] for a long time” and he’s “real excited” for Montgomery’s return. — Eric Woodyard

    Stat to know: No team was better at racking up yards after the catch (YAC) than the Lions, who led the league in total YAC (2,669) and on a per reception (6.7) basis during the regular season. The Commanders were excellent at limiting YAC, giving up a league-low in total YAC (1,551) and ranking 10th per reception (5.1). — ESPN Research

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    1:44

    McCourty: Commanders facing ‘different level of pressure’ vs. Lions

    Jason McCourty and the “Get Up” crew discuss how Jayden Daniels can live up to the moment in a tough road battle against the Lions in the NFC divisional round.

    Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for at least 100 yards — which will be only the second time he hits that mark — in a losing effort. If the Lions continue their blitz-heavy approach, as they have since losing Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula), Daniels is going to put up numbers on the ground with some long scrambles. — Walder

    Matchup X factor: Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards this season, and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can set him up to flip the field. Look for the schemed shot plays over the top, plus the in-breaking concepts that create catch-and-run targets for Williams. — Bowen

    Injuries: Commanders | Lions

    Betting nugget: The Commanders-Lions over/under (55.5) is the highest in a playoff game since Super Bowl LV between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56). Read more. — ESPN Research

    Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert’s regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per game, third most in the NFL. That includes 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (16th most). — Seifert

    Kahler’s pick: Lions 38, Commanders 30
    Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Commanders 24
    Walder’s pick: Lions 42, Commanders 28
    FPI prediction: DET, 73.0% (by an average of 9.0 points)


    Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (43.5 O/U)

    Rams storyline to watch: The Rams’ defense gave up 314 rushing yards to the Eagles in Week 12, including 255 to running back Saquon Barkley, something that has stuck with the unit. Of the previous eight players to record 200 or more rushing yards against a team in the regular season and meet that team again in the playoffs, none ran for more than 200 yards in the second meeting, per ESPN Research. — Sarah Barshop

    Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles led all teams in the wild-card round with four takeaways in their stifling 22-10 win over the Packers. Philadelphia ranked 30th in turnover margin (minus-6) over the first five weeks of the season. Since returning from their Week 6 bye, the Eagles are tied for first with the Bills in turnover margin (plus-17). — Tim McManus

    Stat to know: The Rams had eight different players with at least half a sack in their wild-card win over the Vikings, which was the most by any team in a playoff game since individual sacks became official in 1982. — ESPN Research

    Bold prediction: Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown will record 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown after his quiet wild-card weekend (pages read: TBD). Brown’s season has almost gone under the radar. He recorded 3.3 yards per route run in the regular season, the fourth-highest mark by any receiver since 2007 (minimum 200 routes). — Walder

    Matchup X factor: Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. I see matchup advantages for Smith as a multilevel target in Philadelphia’s pass game. Smith can be schemed as an underneath option for quarterback Jalen Hurts from slot alignments, while also testing the perimeter on vertical throws against a Rams defense that gave up 57 receptions of 20 or more yards in the regular season, tied for fourth most in the league. — Bowen

    Injuries: Rams | Eagles

    Betting nugget: The Rams are 4-1 ATS (3-2 straight up) in road playoff games under coach Sean McVay (since 2018). Los Angeles has averaged 25.4 points per game in those contests. Read more. — ESPN Research

    Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Smith threw only three flags for roughing the passer in the regular season, tied for the second fewest. His crew was also relatively light on offensive holding, throwing the sixth fewest flags (33) in the league. The Eagles drew only 14 offensive holding flags from their opponents, tied for third fewest. — Seifert

    Kahler’s pick: Rams 24, Eagles 22
    Moody’s pick: Eagles 20, Rams 18
    Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Rams 17
    FPI prediction: PHI, 65.4% (by an average of 6.0 points)


    Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BAL -1 (51.5 O/U)

    Ravens storyline to watch: With the cold and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen might have to rely on their legs — and they’re the best at doing that at this point in the season. Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason history (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). But it could be difficult to run against the Ravens’ defense, which has given up 239 yards rushing to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Bills, who have given up 306 yards rushing to QBs (11th fewest). — Jamison Hensley

    Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills get out of the divisional round for the first time since the 2020 season? Though much of the focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting running back Derrick Henry will be key. The Bills will have to put up a better performance than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, the most by any player against the Bills since Sean McDermott became Buffalo’s coach in 2017. This is a much healthier team this time around, with starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel corner Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the previous meeting. But as defensive tackle DaQuan Jones described Henry, “He’s just a freak of nature.” — Alaina Getzenberg

    Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens had the exact same point differential in the regular season (plus-157), which was tied for first in the AFC. This is the seventh matchup in postseason history between teams that had the same regular-season point differential, and the first since Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. — ESPN Research

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    1:29

    Why Orlovsky is ‘fired up’ for Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen

    Dan Orlovsky says both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are at the top of their games heading into the showdown between the Ravens and Bills.

    Bold prediction: Jackson will rush at least 12 times for at least 70 yards. Baltimore showed a willingness last week against Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as much as needed in tandem with Henry. I think that will be their game plan for the entire postseason. And the Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, higher than the league average. — Walder

    Matchup X factor: Bills safety Taylor Rapp. His ability to run the alleys and tackle in space is critical to limiting the explosive play ability of Henry. Including the playoffs, Henry’s 49 rushes of 10 or more yards are tied for the most in the league with Saquon Barkley. The Bills have to get Henry on the ground when he breaks past the second level. — Bowen

    Injuries: Ravens | Bills

    Betting nugget: The Bills have been favored in 42 straight home games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The last time the Bills closed as home underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 against the Dolphins (+3). Read more. — ESPN Research

    Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the past four Super Bowl crews and is among a small group of candidates to reprise that role this year in New Orleans. Of note for this game: Cheffers threw only two flags during the regular season for roughing the passer, the fewest in the NFL. — Seifert

    Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Bills 25
    Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Bills 23
    Walder’s pick: Ravens 31, Bills 27
    FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.3 points)


    The NFL playoffs divisional round is here and the matchups are set to be thrilling. Here are our picks, the schedule, odds, and any key injuries to watch out for:

    Picks:

    • Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers: The Packers are playing at home and have been impressive all season. We predict a close game, but the Packers will come out on top.
    • Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: The Titans have been dominant, but the Bengals have been on a hot streak. This game could go either way, but we’re leaning towards the Titans pulling out a win.
    • Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Rams have a strong defense, but the Buccaneers have Tom Brady. This will be a close game, but we believe the Buccaneers will edge out a victory.
    • Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: This is a rematch from last year’s AFC Championship game. The Bills have been playing exceptionally well, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. We predict the Chiefs will come out on top in a high-scoring game.

      Schedule:

    • Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers: Saturday, January 22 at 8:15 PM ET
    • Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Saturday, January 22 at 4:30 PM ET
    • Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sunday, January 23 at 3:00 PM ET
    • Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday, January 23 at 6:30 PM ET

      Odds:

    • Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
    • Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
    • Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    • Buffalo Bills (+1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

      Injuries to watch:

    • Green Bay Packers: WR Davante Adams (shoulder) is questionable
    • San Francisco 49ers: RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) is questionable
    • Tennessee Titans: RB Derrick Henry (foot) is expected to play
    • Cincinnati Bengals: CB Trae Waynes (hamstring) is questionable
    • Los Angeles Rams: QB Matthew Stafford (ankle) is expected to play
    • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Chris Godwin (knee) is out for the season
    • Buffalo Bills: WR Stefon Diggs (ribs) is expected to play
    • Kansas City Chiefs: TE Travis Kelce (hamstring) is questionable

      Stay tuned for an exciting weekend of NFL playoff action!

    Tags:

    1. NFL playoffs
    2. Divisional round
    3. Picks
    4. Schedule
    5. Odds
    6. Injuries
    7. NFL playoffs picks
    8. Divisional round schedule
    9. Playoff odds
    10. Injury updates

    #NFL #playoffs #divisional #Picks #schedule #odds #injuries

  • Darnold Shreds Green Bay in Divisional Rivalry

    Darnold Shreds Green Bay in Divisional Rivalry


    Sam Darnold has completely resurrected his career in Minnesota, and we expect the former top pick to continue his strong play in Sunday’s NFC North showdown.

    Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com

    Dec 28, 2024 • 18:40 ET

    • 4 min read

    Photo By – Imagn Images. Pictured: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold looks to pass.

    The marquee matchup of the NFL Week 17 slate sees the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings clashing on Sunday afternoon.

    These two teams put on an entertaining performance in their first meeting, and this game has major playoff implications for both teams. As such, players on both sides will be stepping up to make big plays.

    Find out more as Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold headlines our favorite Packers vs Vikings player props and NFL picks for December 29.

    Packers vs Vikings props

    Read full analysis of each pick.

    Packers vs Vikings props

    Prop bet #1: Tucker Kraft Over 34.5 receiving yards

    -115 at BetMGM

    Tucker Kraft is becoming a very reliable piece to this Green Bay Packers offense, as Jordan Love has been getting him more involved over the past month. He’s averaged at least 13 yards a catch in five consecutive games, with 34 or more receiving yards in four straight.

    Wide receiver Christian Watson is doubtful for this game, which means more targets to go around, and I like the tight end to be one of the primary benefactors of those extra looks. Kraft has been targeted 60 times this season, but 18 of those have come in the last four weeks and he’s caught all but four of them.

    Tight ends are averaging better than 50 yards per game against the Minnesota Vikings, a defense that ranks third-worst in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Kraft also caught six of nine targets for 53 yards in the first matchup between these teams in September.

    Minnesota is very strong against the run and they will be without safety Harrison Smith. Those two factors should lead to Kraft getting at least five targets and eclipsing a modest total of 34.5. 

    Prop bet #2: Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 receiving yards

    -115 at BetMGM

    The Vikings are playing exceptionally well against the run this season. Minnesota ranks second in the NFL allowing just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt, and has allowed the second-fewest yards and fewest rushing touchdowns of any team. 

    Josh Jacobs should flash his dual-threat talent as a receiver out of the backfield. The former first-round pick has notched four passes in three of his last four games, with at least 38 receiving yards in each of those outings. 

    In the last head-to-head meeting, Love targeted Jacobs six times for 27 yards through the air. Seattle running back Kenneth Walker also caught eight passes out of the backfield last week against Minnesota for 28 yards, as the Vikings kept giving up easy check-downs. 

    The Packers will want to get the ball into Jacobs’ hands in ways where he can make plays, and throwing him the football is probably a more effective way to achieve that goal. 17 yards is a low floor and one he should reach with ease.

    Prop bet #3: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

    -130 at BetMGM

    There have been only four games this season in which Sam Darnold has not thrown multiple touchdown passes, as the 27-year-old quarterback has completely reinvented his career in Minneapolis. 

    When these teams met at Lambeau earlier this season, Darnold completed 20-of-28 passing attempts for 275 yards and three TDs. He posted his third-best QBR of the season against the Packers, and he should fare well against a Packers defense that still has Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander playing at less than 100%. 

    Green Bay allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry of any team in the NFL, along with the 10th-fewest rushing scores per game. The Vikings will need to utilize the passing game against a defense that ranks 22nd in opponent passing completion rate. 

    Darnold has thrown 15 touchdowns in his last six games, and it’s hard to see him not getting a pair here.

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    In a highly anticipated divisional rivalry matchup, Sam Darnold put on a show as he shredded the Green Bay Packers defense. The young quarterback showcased his talent and potential as he led his team to a dominant victory.

    Darnold was in complete control of the game, making precise throws and smart decisions throughout the contest. He consistently found his receivers downfield and made big plays when it mattered most. His poise under pressure and ability to read the defense were on full display as he dissected the Packers secondary with ease.

    The performance left fans and analysts alike in awe of Darnold’s abilities, solidifying his status as a rising star in the league. With games like this, it’s clear that the young quarterback has a bright future ahead of him and is poised to become a true franchise player for his team.

    As the season progresses, all eyes will be on Darnold to see if he can continue to shine and lead his team to even greater heights. If this game is any indication, the future looks incredibly bright for this talented quarterback.

    Tags:

    Darnold, Shreds, Green Bay, Divisional Rivalry, NFL, Football, New York Jets, Aaron Rodgers, Touchdowns, Interceptions, Game Recap, Matchup Analysis

    #Darnold #Shreds #Green #Bay #Divisional #Rivalry

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