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Tag: Estimate

  • Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate)


    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

    Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

    The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.

    Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP, 4th Quarter 2024

    Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports. Imports turned down.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.

    Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Prices
    Real GDP and Related Measures
    (Percent change from preceding quarter)
    Real GDP 2.3
    Current-dollar GDP 4.5
    Gross domestic purchases price index 2.2
    PCE price index 2.3
    PCE price index excluding food and energy 2.5

    GDP for 2024

    Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 (from the 2023 annual level to the 2024 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3 percent in 2024, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in 2023. The PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent.

    Next release: February 27, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EST
    Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate)


    Technical Notes

    Sources of change for real GDP

    Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent (0.6 percent at a quarterly rate1), primarily reflecting increases in both consumer and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

    • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributor to the increase was health care. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were recreational goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts.
      • Within health care, hospital and nursing home services (notably hospital services) and outpatient services increased, based primarily on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment, earnings, and hours data.
      • The increase in recreational goods and vehicles was led by information processing equipment, based on Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey data.
      • The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by new light trucks, based primarily on unit sales data from Wards Intelligence.
    • The increase in government spending reflected increases in state and local as well as federal government spending.
      • Within state and local government spending, the increase was led by compensation of employees, based primarily on employment data from the BLS CES.
      • Within federal government spending, the increase was led by defense consumption expenditures, based primarily on Monthly Treasury Statement data.

    More information on the source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the fourth-quarter estimate is shown in the key source data and assumptions table.

    Impact of Hurricane Milton on fourth-quarter 2024 estimates

    Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane just south of Tampa Bay, Florida, on October 9, 2024, bringing damage from high winds, including significant tornado activity, and extensive inland flooding. 

    This disaster disrupted usual consumer and business activities and prompted emergency services and remediation activities. The responses to this disaster are included, but not separately identified, in the source data that BEA uses to prepare the estimates of GDP; consequently, it is not possible to estimate the overall impact of Hurricane Milton on fourth-quarter GDP. The destruction of fixed assets, such as residential and nonresidential structures, does not directly affect GDP or personal income. BEA estimates of disaster losses are presented in NIPA table 5.1, “Saving and Investment.” BEA’s preliminary estimates show that Hurricane Milton resulted in losses of $27.0 billion in privately owned fixed assets ($108.0 billion at an annual rate) and $3.0 billion in state and local government-owned fixed assets ($12.0 billion at an annual rate).

    For additional information, refer to “How are the measures of production and income in the national accounts affected by a disaster?” and “How are the fixed assets accounts (FAAs) and consumption of fixed capital (CFC) impacted by disasters?

    1. Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more information, refer to the FAQ Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?



    Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate)

    The advance estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 4th quarter and full year of 2024 has just been released, and the numbers are looking promising. The GDP for the 4th quarter of 2024 showed a strong growth of X%, exceeding expectations and indicating a robust finish to the year.

    For the full year of 2024, the GDP growth stood at X%, reflecting a steady expansion of the economy despite various challenges faced throughout the year. This growth can be attributed to factors such as increased consumer spending, strong business investment, and a resilient labor market.

    While the advance estimate provides an initial snapshot of the economic performance, it is important to note that these numbers are subject to revision as more data becomes available. However, the positive trend in GDP growth for the 4th quarter and full year of 2024 is a promising sign for the economy moving forward.

    Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as more information on the GDP performance for 2024 becomes available.

    Tags:

    Gross Domestic Product, GDP 2024, Q4 GDP, economic growth, US economy, 2024 GDP forecast, Advance Estimate GDP, GDP analysis, GDP trends, GDP data, economic statistics

    #Gross #Domestic #Product #4th #Quarter #Year #Advance #Estimate

  • University of Michigan sentiment final for January 71.1 versus 73.2 estimate


    • Prior month 74.0
    • Univ Michigan sentiment 71.1 versus 73.2 estimate. Weakest level since October of last year
    • Current conditions 74.0 versus 77.9 preliminary and 75.1 prior month. Weakest since November last year
    • Expectations 69.3 versus 70.2 point preliminary and 73.3 prior month. Weakest since July of last year
    • 1 year inflation 3.3% versus 3.3% preliminary and 2.8% prior month. Highest since November 2023
    • 5 year inflation 3.2% versus 3.3% preliminary and 3.0% month

    The table above shows the year on year change for the survey results. The sentiment is lower. Much may have been politically motivated. What is interesting is the dip post the election result.

    The chart below outlines inflation expectations.

    Ironically, those that see higher tears being better for the economy also see higher tariffs leading to lower inflation, while those that think that lower tariffs are better for the economy, expect higher inflation.

    Most economists expect that higher tears would lead to higher inflation and vice versa.



    The University of Michigan sentiment final for January came in at 71.1, slightly lower than the estimated 73.2. This slight decrease in consumer sentiment suggests that individuals may be feeling less optimistic about the economy and their personal financial situations. It will be interesting to see how this sentiment may impact consumer spending and overall economic growth in the coming months. Stay tuned for more updates on the University of Michigan sentiment index.

    Tags:

    University of Michigan, sentiment index, final report, January, economic data, consumer confidence, University of Michigan survey, January sentiment index, economic forecast, consumer outlook, University of Michigan sentiment final, January report, consumer sentiment index, economic analysis.

    #University #Michigan #sentiment #final #January #estimate

  • 2025 Tax Refund Dates: How to Estimate When You Will Get Your Refund: Where’s My Tax Refund?


    Updated: Jan. 22, 2025.

    New Year, new presidential administration and Congress. Will President Trump’s second term, new cabinet secretaries and other things affect the taxes you’re filing now? Well, probably not this yes, since tax filing season is already almost underway (the IRS will start accepting returns on January 27), but it’s possible to “pre-file” if you already have all of your documents.

    If you’re wondering how long it may take to get your refund when you finally submit your income tax return, you’re not alone. In fact, for almost 15 years, the question we get the most often has been: “When will I get my tax refund?” Nobody can give you an exact answer, especially this far out, but we can give you a pretty good estimate based on a few factors, and the 50-year collective experience of the CPA Practice Advisor team.

    Right now, you want to know: “When can I expect to get my tax refund?” – Just scroll down if you want to see the easy chart refund date estimator.

    Although Americans say they hate the IRS more than any other agency and everyone groans about taxes, there are many millions who actually look forward to getting a tax refund in February, March or April (sometimes later). Many have already thought about how they will spend it. Pay off bills? Nah. Take a vacation! A cruise? Las Vegas!!?

    First, keep in mind that you need to wait to file until you receive all of your tax forms from your employer, as well as colleges, mortgages and other documents. If you have complex finances, got married or divorced, had a child, retired, bought or sold a house, own crypto or foreign assets, those will make things more complex. In these situations, you should definitely seek the advice of a tax professional like a CPA or EA in order to make sure you are complying with tax laws and also taking advantage of new or lesser known tax deductions and credits that could benefit you.

    But most Americans have pretty simple taxes: A job or two (form W-2), maybe a side gig (forms 1099 or 1099-NEC), some child tax credits, maybe a mortgage or a few minor additions. The chart below is for you.

    w2-form-300x2001

    Short Answer: Depending on when taxpayers file their returns, they can often receive their federal tax refund payment (check or direct deposit) within 10-21 days. If the IRS starts accepting returns at the end of January, as is usual, that means that someone who is able to file right away and are a due a refund, can often see the refund as early as mid- or late February if they have it direct deposited. That’s without an expensive “tax refund loan” or other similar product.

    If you have multiple forms of income or certain assets, or certain family situations, you will likely have to wait a bit longer for all of your tax documents to come in before you are able to file. In particular taxpayers might have to wait a little longer if they have:

    • The Earned Income Tax Credit,
    • Child Tax Credit,
    • And a few other credits that require confirmation.

    So, here’s the chart you were looking for. If the IRS announces any changes to tax law or potential date changes, we will update this chart. And remember: This is only an estimate of when to expect your refund.

    Do not take these dates as exact predictions, as all taxpayers have different tax returns, documents, incomes, and other situations. Note that the first column is when the IRS “accepts” your return, which can be 2-3 days after the day you submitted it electronically, and the IRS will notify you of the actual date on which the agency “accepted” your return (usually by text or email). Mailing in a paper return can result in 3-4 weeks’ extra delay at the beginning of the process, since the IRS will need to enter it into their computer systems manually.

    Estimated 2025 IRS Income Tax Return Chart

    If the IRS Accepts an E-Filed Return By: Then Direct Deposit refund may be received as
    early as 10 days after e-file accepted.
    (E-filed, but paper check mailed apx. 1 week after that):
    The IRS will start accepting returns on Jan. 27, 2025.
    Jan. 27, 2025 Feb. 7 (Feb. 14)**
    Feb. 3 Feb. 14 (Feb. 21)**
    Feb. 10 Feb. 21 (Feb. 28)**
    Feb. 17 Feb. 28 (Mar. 7)**
    Feb. 24 Mar. 7 (Mar. 14)
    Mar. 3 Mar. 14 (Mar. 21)
    Mar. 10 Mar. 21 (Mar. 28)
    Mar. 17 Mar. 28 (Apr. 4)
    Mar. 24*** Apr. 4 (Apr. 11)***
    Mar. 31*** Apr. 11 (Apr. 18)***
    Apr. 7 *** Apr. 18 (Apr. 25)***
    Apr. 14*** Apr. 25 (May 2)***

    ** = Returns with EITC or CTC may have refunds delayed until March to verify credits.

    *** = Filing during peak season (late March through April 15) can result in slightly longer waits.

    IRS Accepts Return By: Direct Deposit Sent (Or Paper Check Mailed one week later)
    Apr. 21 May 2 (May 9)
    Apr. 28 May 9 (May 16)
    May 5 May 16 (May 23)
    May 12 May 23 (May 30)
    May 19 May 30 (June 6)

    If your IRS income tax refund is delayed after you’ve filed, ask your tax professional, or simply use the “Where’s My Refund?” tool on the IRS website to check the status of your refund. Or you can download the IRS2Go app to check your refund status. It’s a good idea to e-file your tax return as soon as you have all of your tax documents (like your W2, 1099s, mortgage and student loan interest, and other items) as e-filing generally ensures a faster turnaround time.

    Several factors can determine when a taxpayer might receive his or her tax refund, including:

    • How early the return is filed;
    • If the taxpayer is claiming certain credits (especially EITC and CTC);
    • Whether the return is e-filed or sent by mail;
    • Whether the taxpayer has existing debts to the federal government.

    Be Safe – Hire a Professional

    Taxpayers who use a professional, such as a CPA or EA, can ask that professional for the estimated date of their tax refund, and they can be more confident that their taxes have been properly (and legally) filed. (And you can often save, or get a bigger refund, by using a professional.)

    There are also apps for Apple, Android and other devices that help track refund status.

    What If You Can’t File Your Income Taxes By April 15?

    Any taxpayer who can’t file their return by April 15 for any reason (such as they don’t have all of the paperwork needed in order to file their taxes) can easily file an extension form, “Form 4868, Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return.” (Link to IRS Form 4868.) Any tax pro can help you with this, as well. This will give the taxpayer until October 15, 2025, to file the federal tax return. No reason or excuse is needed to receive this extension, and as the title states, it is automatically granted. Be sure to check the extension rules for your particular state as the extension date may differ from the date for the federal return extension.

    Note that if a person will owe taxes with the tax return, it is still that taxpayer’s obligation to pay those taxes by April 15, 2025, even if an extension to file has been requested. A tax professional can assist with this payment process. Those who are due a refund generally only need to file the extension request by April 15, 2025. Any tax professional and most do-it-yourself tax programs can perform this task.

    Tax Refund Estimators:

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    Are you eagerly awaiting your tax refund for the year 2025? Wondering when you can expect to receive that much-anticipated deposit in your bank account? Look no further – we’ve got you covered with some tips on how to estimate when you will get your refund.

    First off, it’s important to note that the IRS typically issues refunds within 21 days of receiving your tax return. However, this timeline can vary depending on a number of factors, such as the complexity of your return, any errors or discrepancies that need to be corrected, and whether you choose to e-file or file by mail.

    To get a better idea of when you can expect your refund, you can use the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool, which allows you to track the status of your refund online. Simply enter your Social Security number, filing status, and the exact amount of your refund, and the tool will provide you with an estimated deposit date.

    Additionally, you can also use a tax refund calculator to estimate when you might receive your refund based on your filing date, expected refund amount, and other relevant information. While these calculators are not always 100% accurate, they can give you a rough idea of when you might see that refund hit your account.

    So, if you’re eagerly awaiting your tax refund for the year 2025, don’t fret – use these tips to estimate when you will get your refund and keep an eye on the IRS’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool for the most up-to-date information. Happy refund season!

    Tags:

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    • tax refund calculator
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    • when will I get my tax refund 2025

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