Tag: FOOTBALL

If you have one takeaway from the earliest possible mock draft among fantasy football sickos who never stop pondering player valuations, let it be this: If you want Brock Bowers on your fantasy squad in 2025, you better be emotionally, psychologically, and physically prepared to burn a first-round pick on the Raiders tight end.

I joined 11 fellow fantasy analysts from NBC Sports and Fantasy Life in late January to run through a 12-round mock draft for the 2025 season. We did not include incoming rookies, and of course NFL free agency is going to make some of these picks look much worse (or better), but what follows are some of my thoughts on how fantasy drafters might value players in positions eight months from now, when the real seasonal drafting begins for well-adjusted humans.

Bowers was the 12th player off the board, taken by Rivers McCown. It harkens back to a bygone era in which tight ends — names Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham — were treated in fantasy circles like high-end receivers. Bowers’ 263 PPR points in 2024 would have made him the eighth highest scoring wideout in fantasy, ahead of guys like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and Mike Evans.

It’s not as if Bowers’ outrageous rookie campaign was fueled by unsustainable touchdown production. He scored five touchdowns over 17 games, and the less-than-competent Raiders targeted Bowers just eight times inside the ten yard line; Diontae Johnson and Wan’Dale Robinson were among the pass catchers who had more green zone looks in 2024. Truly tragic stuff.

The only tight end Bowers did not lap in production last season was Trey McBride, who also ran ice cold on touchdowns thanks mostly to Kyler Murray’s red zone deficiencies. McBride, taken with the 16th pick in this mock draft by Rotoworld’s Zach Krueger, fell just short of Bowers’ catch and yardage totals, but bested him in yards per route run. I could see both Bowers and McBride being drafted among the first 12 or 14 picks come summertime. If you want these guys, you gotta go get them.

2025 Fantasy Football mock draft board

–Anthony Richardson, drafted by Producer Adam Wise, lingered on the board until the 12th round, about eight rounds later than he was taken last summer on average. I’m no A-Rich defender — we talked recently on the Rotoworld Football Show about the prospect of a quarterback competition in Indianapolis — but a QB with that kind of rushing upside should be taken in all fantasy formats. Richardson in 2024 averaged almost eight rushing attempts per game, including 14 inside-the-ten rushes. He can remain a miserably poor passer and still get there for fantasy purposes.

2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft – RB Takeaways

Saquon Barkley being the only player who mattered in 2024 fantasy leagues will surely create a massive overcorrection in how fantasy players value top-end running backs next summer. Many drafts — among both savvy fantasy veterans and more casual folks — will be little more than a race to see who can get a pair of elite backs. We’ve seen this happen with wideouts and quarterbacks after positional outlier seasons. It rarely works well for those who chase trends harder than I chase my dog when he sees a squirrel dash across the backyard.

-Eleven of the first 24 picks in this mock draft were running backs, including four of the first seven. Probably this won’t be reflective of more casual leagues, where we might see 14 or 15 running backs go in the first two rounds of 12-teams drafts. The running back hunger will be real, and it will create ludicrous values for the game’s best receivers.

-Davis Mattek took Christian McCaffrey with the 19th overall pick, an incomprehensible valuation as recently as six months ago. Entering his age-29 season and coming off an injury-riddled 2024 campaign, CMC might not have the juice he had two or three seasons ago, but should prove a value as a second rounder in Kyle Shanahan’s ultra-efficient EPA Machine. McCaffrey wasn’t exactly bad in 2024. His 2.7 yards after contact per rush — a decent measure of running back ability — was well south of his 2022 and 2023 rates, but in line with what he averaged as a Panther. CMC’s 2024 yards after the catch per reception, a career-low 6.7, is perhaps cause for concern, though this was with a small sample (15 catches on 19 targets).

-As a tried and true Zero RB zealot, I (think) I took advantage of falling receiver ADPs and started the draft with A.J. Brown, Drake London — who cooked with Michael Penix under center — and Davante Adams, who hopefully — like Kurt Russell in 1981 — escapes New York. I then took Ken Walker as my RB1, and two rounds later took Isiah Pacheco as my RB2 (I piled up some contingency backs like Ray Davis, Rachaad White, and MarShawn Lloyd later in the draft).

Pacheco, who has been horrific in his return from a broken leg in September, could be a disastrous sixth round selection if the Chiefs invest significant draft capital in another backfield option or bring back 30-year-old Kareem Hunt as a lead back. There’s also the matter of recovery. It took almost 18 months for Tony Pollard to fully recover from his leg break. Pacheco returned to the Kansas City lineup within three months of his leg injury. The hope would be Pacheco is close to full health by next fall.

The Chiefs seem to like Pacheco (when healthy) and appeared open to Pacheco as something close to an every-down back before his Week 2 leg injury. He ran a route on 23 of 31 Mahomes drop backs in Week 1 against the Ravens and saw five targets in Week 2 against the Bengals before his second half leg break. Pacheco had 34 of KC’s 42 running back rushes over those two games. A return to fantasy RB2 status for Pacheco — the team’s primary goal line back in 2023 — is in his 2025 range of outcomes, a phrase I like to use when I don’t actually know anything.

–Bucky Irving, who finished 2024 as the 12th highest scoring back in fantasy, was taken here as the 12th running back (by Damian, who ended up with one of the mock’s stronger teams). Tampa’s late-season commitment to Irving as the team’s lead back and Irving’s stunning efficiency — he led all running backs in yards after contact per rush — should probably make him one of the first five or six RBs taken in 2025. I would happily draft Irving over Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams, to name a few.

–Tyrone Tracy in the seventh round is a pretty sweet value for Producer Pete Damilatis. Tracy, unless the Giants do something idiotic (imagine that) and spend a bunch of draft capital at running back, would seem to be the favorite to be New York’s lead back in 2025. Hopefully Tracy — a wide receiver for much of his college career — can improve as a pass catcher next season. Pro Football Focus in 2024 graded him as the league’s third worst pass catching back, as he logged a drop on 14 percent of his targets. Only three backs had a higher drop rate.

2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft – WR Takeaways

-I took Drake London with the 15th overall pick, just ahead of Malik Nabers. It was an excruciating decision, or as excruciating as a decision can be in a make-believe draft in January. London’s 490 air yards over Michael Penix’s three 2024 starts led the NFL, as did his 39 targets over that span. He saw fully half of Atlanta’s air yards and 41 percent of the team’s targets in those Penix starts. It could portend big things for the big-bodied London in 2025.

-Pat Daugherty sniped me on Brian Thomas in the second round. It’s not the worst thing that’s ever happened to me, but it’s close. Maybe top five. Thomas popped in every conceivable metric in 2024 despite horrific quarterback play and new Jaguars head coach is already talking up Thomas as a dominant slot guy. Coen is on to something, as only Marvin Mims and Puka Nacua had a higher rate of yards per route than Thomas last season. If you don’t think Thomas has overall WR1 in his range of 2025 outcomes, you haven’t been paying adequate attention. Snap to it.

-Kyle Dvorchak, that sneaky zoomer, took Ladd McConkey in the third round ahead of wideouts like Xavier Worthy, DJ Moore, and Rashee Rice. You might not have to be quite so aggressive to acquire McConkey in your league — depending on your league mates’ experience and scoring settings and whatnot — but I like the pick. LA’s offense leaned hard into the pass over the season’s second half and McConkey, after battling some injuries earlier in the season, took command as the team’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. McConkey profiles as a superb WR2 or WR3 option with plenty of upside if the Chargers continue establishing the pass in 2025.

–Ricky Pearsall going ahead of Chris Godwin and Josh Downs is probably a reach. Unless the 49ers part ways with Deebo Samuel after his miserable 2024 season, Pearsall will be, at best, the team’s fourth option in the pass game. The typically low volume (and efficient) Niners passing attack isn’t designed to support more than two or three pass catchers from a fantasy perspective. Pearsall’s yards per route run ranked 73rd out of 100 qualifying receivers in 2024, alongside Ray-Ray McCloud, Allen Lazard, and Xavier Worthy, who had the league’s worst open score, per ESPN.

-The fantasy outlook for Michael Pittman and the aforementioned Downs will hinge entirely on whether the Colts stick with Richardson as their starting quarterback. The lack of passing volume and Richardson’s inaccuracy — an issue he’s addressing this offseason with Josh Allen’s biometrics coach — make the Colts wideouts top-40 options rather than locked-in top-24 plays.

-Adam Wise had one of the better picks of the draft in nabbing Marvin Mims as his WR5. Sean Payton in the 2024 season’s final month and a half discovered Mims’ existence and used him as a short-area playmaker. Finishing ninth among all receivers in yards per route run, the speedy Mims was targeted on 29 percent of his routes over Denver’s final five games. That’s quite high. Mims will be a must-have for those who go RB-heavy in the early rounds. He’ll be an embarrassment of riches for Zero RB truthers.

2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft – TE Takeaways

-Beyond McBride and Bowers (see above for my thoughts on those two elite tight ends), David Njoku struck me as the best tight end selection in this draft. Taken by Ian Hartitz in the eighth round — three rounds after Sam LaPorta — Njoku appears to be a screaming value as the eighth tight end off the board. Some are asking why I didn’t take Njoku instead of the dad-running Travis Kelce. My interns are crafting a statement on the matter. Back to Njoku: He was targeted on 24 percent of his pass routes last season, a strong rate for a tight end. Any time he has a halfway viable quarterback, Njoku cooks. He should be the target for those who fade Bowers and McBride.

-The horror movie that was Mark Andrews’ season-ending Divisional Round performance against the Bills could be enough to suppress his ADP in 2025. I couldn’t blame fantasy managers for that. We are only human, and can never forget what we saw from Andrews against Buffalo. It is tattooed onto our brains. Anyway, Andrews went way too late here (Chris Allen took him in the eighth round). Andrews finished 2024 with the sixth highest yards per route run among tight ends. His yards per route run ranked third among all tight ends over the season’s second half. The Ravens used Andrews from the slot more often (65 percent) in the season’s final couple months. That should be a boon for his fantasy prospects headed into 2025 if one can forget about Andrews’ playoff performance through hypnosis or something.

-Producer Pete snagged Jonnu Smith in the tenth round. Somehow Dalton Kincaid went before Smith, who scored the fourth most tight end fantasy points last year as the Dolphins abandoned their wideout-heavy offensive approach in favor of check downs to Smith and De’Von Achane. No tight end saw as many inside-the-ten targets (13) as Smith, who scored seven of his eight touchdowns on those looks. Only Kelce, Bowers, and McBride had more receptions than Smith from Week 5 (when Smith was finally given a full complement of routes) to Week 18. Mike McDaniel let Jonnu cook. He could very well be forgotten in the elite tight end shuffle this summer.