Tonight’s Forecast:

HOUSTON – Temperatures are warmer with gusty winds from the south ahead of our cold front. This will keep us more mild over the weekend.

We are tracking light rain showers across SE Texas. These showers aren’t particularly heavy but they certainly aren’t ideal if you’re out and about. Track our rainfall below:

Cold Front Saturday:

The much anticipated arctic cold front will arrive on Saturday morning. This cold front is dry, which means the only big tell that the front has passed will be a big wind shift. The cold air is slow to arrive with the coldest of the air not expected until early next week.

Houston Marathon Forecast:

Thousands of runners and walkers take to the streets of Houston this Sunday. Temperatures at the starting line will be in the mid-30s but it will feel like the upper-20s with the wind chill. Temperatures will warm to the lower-40s through the morning under sunny skies. It was actually colder last year. This year we will be dealing with pretty strong breezy coming from the north at 15 mph. This will be a stout headwind for half marathoners between miles 9-11. This will cause a headwind for full-marathon runners between miles 11 and 12 and also for miles 13-18.

Monday-Wednesday:

The Arctic air spills into the region Sunday and lasts through Wednesday. Monday afternoon we only put a high of 40° which means the majority of the day will be spent in the 30s. The most dangerous weather is expected starting Monday night and lasting through the day on Tuesday.

Monday night we will see temperatures drop below freezing. If we do not get above freezing on Tuesday (right now we have a forecast high of 32°) then we will be below freezing for 36 hours until Wednesday afternoon.

Monday afternoon we are expecting moisture to move into the area. This will allow for cold rain, sleet, and freezing rain for areas mainly north of I-10. As we head into Tuesday morning temperatures will drop into the mid-20s which will transition all precipitation to snowfall. The sleet from Monday night will be ice under the snowfall on the roads which will make it especially dangerous.

Tuesday we either stay at freezing, or we will get just above freezing in the afternoon. Regardless another hard freeze is expected Wednesday morning with temperatures dropping to the teens and lower-20s.

It isn’t until Wednesday afternoon that we will finally thaw out and be out of the woods.

The timeline for wintry weather is mainly from Monday night through Wednesday morning. Sleet and snow will start on Monday night with snowfall expected by Tuesday morning. All snowfall is expected to end by Tuesday evening. Although we will be dry Wednesday morning, we may still have ice and snow on the roads as temperatures will stay below freezing through Wednesday morning.

Through the weekend the Stormtracker 2 Weather Team will track changes as they come in and pass them along on all our platforms.

What you can do to prepare:

The best thing to do this weekend is prepare for the freeze! Get some preparations in place for your plants – bring them in or cover them. Also plan to bring in your pets. Pipes freeze when temperatures fall to the lower-20s and teens. Right now I’m forecasting mid-20s for Houston Tuesday morning and lower-20s for Wednesday morning. It’s also a good idea to drain your sprinkler system. There is no harm in winterizing your system.

Let’s talk about how we forecast winter weather, it’s a process. This past weekend, I started getting texts asking, “Is it going to snow?” I get it, the long-range data you can find online is tempting to buy in to, but here’s the thing: it’s often way off. If I had a nickel for every time the 10-day American model predicted a hurricane hitting Houston, I’d be rich!

There’s a careful process we follow when looking at what the future holds. It’s not just about glancing at one model; it’s about analyzing, comparing, and interpreting the data. I’ve put together this video to explain how it all works. Check it out.

10-day Forecast:

Thankfully our wintry weather will not last long. Once we get to Wednesday afternoon we will thaw out, and we will stay above freezing for the remainder of the upcoming week and weekend.