Tag: Goodison

So far, what appeared on paper to be a daunting December run of games has been navigated ably by Everton. First, the Goodison derby was postponed due to adverse weather conditions (unfortunately, it still has to be played) and then the Blues held the fearsome trio of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City to battling draws — the first two being goalless stalemates.

On Boxing Day, the Toffees conceded first at the Etihad Stadium — normally signalling a shellacking; but these are strange times in Manchester. The once-imperious hosts took their foot off the gas, which allowed the visitors back in the game, via Iliman Ndiaye’s cleanly-struck effort. Everton still had to rely on some stalwart defending, the post and a Jordan Pickford penalty save to earn a point.

If the team’s defence is holding up well, then they unfortunately still continue to frustrate in spurning the rare good opportunities they manage to fashion. A late four-on-two break, spearheaded by impressive substitute Armando Broja, came to nought, courtesy of more poor decision-making. But still, a haul of six points from four outings this month is nothing to be sniffed at.

Next up, in what will be the club’s final game of the year, Everton welcome high-flying Nottingham Forest to Goodison.

Form

The hapless Steve Cooper was dismissed a little over a year ago, having garnered just 14 points from 18 games, with former Wolverhampton Wanderers favourite Nuno Espirito Santo his replacement. The Portuguese guided the East Midlanders to safety, finishing one place above the drop, on 32 points, offering an uptick in performance, despite the club being penalized four points for breaches of the league’s financial regulations — though it didn’t require much to stay up last term, given how bad the newly promoted sides were,

Forest had spent big in their first season back in the top flight, in 2022/23 — effectively building an entirely new squad from scratch and had continued buying players the following year, mitigated somewhat by the sale of homegrown star Brennan Johnson, for PSR reasons. Last summer, no doubt with one eye on PSR considerations, Forest were careful to balance their player trading activities, limiting their spend to a net of €19m. The club still managed to bring in eleven new players – nine on permanent deals – continuing an impressive squad churn.

Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images

The only genuinely big-money signing was Newcastle United midfielder Elliot Anderson (€41.2m), but others also having an impact this season have been centre half Nikola Milenković (€12m, Fiorentina), left back Álex Moreno (loan, Aston Villa) and winger Jota Silva (€7m, Vitória Guimarães). Heading out the door were central defender Moussa Niakhaté (€31.9m, Olympique Lyon), goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos (€23.6m, Newcastle United) and also to Lyon (€23.4m), but now on loan at Everton, Orel Mangala.

Despite exiting the EFL Cup on penalties back in August, it’s fair to say that Forest have been one of the genuine surprise packages of the campaign to date. Unbeaten in their opening five Premier League fixtures, which included inflicting Liverpool’s sole loss this season (in all competitions), the Midlanders finally tasted defeat to Fulham. A draw with Chelsea was followed by a trio of wins, before they hit a rough patch, losing three from four — to the Magpies, Gunners and City.

However, they’ve responded magnificently, with a run of four straight victories, taking the scalps of Manchester United, Aston Villa, Brentford (a first home defeat for the Bees) and, last time out, Tottenham. They arrive at Goodison sitting in an improbable, but deserved, fourth place. Amazingly, they have already eclipsed last season’s points haul.

Style of Play

Nuno has been a 4-2-3-1 man since arriving at Forest, with the very occasional switch to a back three — as at Brentford last weekend. Given Everton’s orthodox system, it’s highly probable we’ll see him retain the 4-2-3-1 he reverted back to in midweek’s 1-0 win over Spurs. The 50-year-old is fundamentally a defensive head coach, who sets up in a compact structure and looks to invite pressure, looking to use the team’s pace on the counter.

Today’s visitors are happy to concede possession, as shown by their 39.7% share, which ranks only marginally ahead of the league’s least ball-hungry side — Everton. Their passing accuracy of 79.0% ranks 18th and with 13.6% of their passes going long, they are a side who aren’t committed to slow buildup play, but will look to spray the ball out wide and over the top to runners, when possible. Forest heavily favour attacking down the flanks and in particular, their left side (44%).

Photo by Jon Hobley | MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Reds have been efficient in taking their chances, having scored 24 times from an xG (Expected Goals) of 21.7. They generate 13.1 efforts on goal per 90 minutes, which ranks 13th in the division. Forest are one of the better users of set-pieces in the league, having scored seven times from this route (ranking joint-second). Defensively, they’ve been beaten on 19 occasions this term, from an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 18.9, which ranks third. They don’t concede many from open play, but have the joint second-best defence against dead balls, having shipped just two goals.

Player Assessment

Chris Wood has been Forest’s primary goalscorer this term and has netted ten already. Now 33, the ex-Burnley man has been consistent since Nuno arrived, hitting 21 in 34 league games. An old-school front man, the savvy veteran is an aerial presence, winning 2.99 of his duels per game (42.0%), and focuses on getting into dangerous positions, in order to convert chances. He only takes 1.85 efforts at goal per 90 minutes, but hits the target with 58.6% of his efforts.

Mats Sels isn’t tearing up any trees, but has been very solid, allowing almost exactly the amount of goals that could be expected, from the shots he’s faced. Given Forest’s sturdy defence, that’s proven more than enough.

The visitors’ central defensive pairing of Murillo and Milenković have been key to their success. The former is undersized, but is a fast, athletic, modern centre half, who likes to carry the ball out of defence, but is also tenacious, leading the team with 6.33 clearances per 90. The latter is a towering presence, who wins 2.59 aerial duels (67.7%) per 90 and complements Murillo perfectly.

Solutions

Even a couple of months ago, this game looked like one Everton should be targeting as a home win, but Forest’s impressive form has caused a rethink. Whilst it’s true that the Blues have lost only once in their last seven matches, they’ve only actually won one game over the same period —the 4-0 romp over a ramshackle Wolves side.

Despite their resilience, today’s hosts sit just three points above the drop. Immediately below, Crystal Palace have improved after failing to win any of their opening eight and Wolves have picked up six points from two games under their new boss, Vítor Pereira. It’s looking like Everton may be relying on the promoted sides, who all currently occupy the relegation places, being as terrible as those last season, which may well happen, but which is nevertheless not guaranteed.

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The defence has improved considerably after a poor opening to the season, but goals are needed to win games and the team has to start showing more at the other end of the pitch. Can the team find that elusive victory this afternoon? It’s hard to imagine either side being eager to claim the initiative today, though as hosts Everton may be forced into that uncomfortable position.

I imagine a proactive, energetic start from the home side, with lots of pressing in the centre of the pitch, a high tempo and direct passing. I’m sure Nuno will anticipate this, so expect Forest to go long quite a bit early on to avoid coughing up the ball in disadvantageous areas. From there, it could be a cagey affair, with both teams looking for mistakes to capitalize on. One area Forest may look to target is Everton’s ongoing susceptibility to giving up breaks off their own set-pieces.

As for the Toffees, open-play creation is in short supply these days and unfortunately, the visitors defend corners and free kicks very well. They aren’t going to try to play out of defence under pressure, so opportunities from transitional situations will be few. I can see this game coming down to an individual error, should a goal be scored, which is by no means certain.

Prediction: Everton 0-0 Forest

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com