Tag: Information

Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 1,073.

Sumy region. Rescue teams in this northeastern region have uncovered the bodies of nine civilians from the rubble of a house hit by a Russian drone overnight on January 30. Thirteen others were wounded. The attack is one of the deadliest since mid-November, when a Russian ballistic missile struck residential areas, killing 10 and wounding more than 50 people.

Donetsk region. Russian shelling across the region killed one resident and wounded four others on January 29.

Russian forces continue to advance on eastern front. Since concentrating its attacks in the Donetsk region over the past year, Russia has captured hundreds of square miles of territory. Despite immense casualties, Russia is seeking to overrun Pokrovsk, a road and rail hub considered the key to the region. If successful, Russian forces could cut off supplies to Ukraine’s troops in the region. Russian troops yesterday reportedly seized a village just 10 miles southwest of the city. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces reportedly have recently regained several positions around Pokrovsk.

The U.S. has suspended all non-military aid to Ukraine as part of a broader 90-day review of foreign assistance programs initiated by President Donald Trump. The move aims to assess the effectiveness and alignment of U.S. foreign aid with American foreign policy. The halt affects a range of critical programs in Ukraine, including energy security initiatives, small business support and media grants, which amounted to more than $5.4 billion in 2024 alone. In 2023, the support amounted to $16 billion.

Despite the freeze, Ukraine’s government budget and macro-financial aid from the U.S., including $20 billion in loans from the World Bank, remain unaffected. Sectors such as energy and small business development, however, are now in limbo, with ongoing projects in jeopardy.

Diplomats within the U.S. State Department are already lobbying for exceptions to the suspension, particularly for programs deemed critical to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and economic recovery. While there is hope that USAID projects might be reinstated following the audit, there are concerns that certain initiatives, especially those linked to democracy promotion and social policy, might be cut.

The EU is debating whether to restart Russian pipeline gas imports as part of a peace deal for Ukraine. Proponents argue that the resumption could reduce energy costs and encourage Moscow to negotiate, while Germany, Hungary and other EU capitals see it as a way to ease pressure on European industries struggling with energy prices. Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.2% for the second consecutive year, driven in part by high energy costs. In fact, energy in Europe costs three to four times more than in the U.S., putting additional strain on its industrial sector. Before the war, Russian gas made up 40% of the EU’s supply; today, it hovers around 10%, most of which flows through Turkey’s TurkStream pipeline.

The proposal, however, faces strong opposition from Brussels, Eastern European governments and U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, who worry that it could undermine efforts to secure long-term contracts. The European Commission has rejected any link between peace talks and gas transit, reaffirming its commitment to phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

The EU’s upcoming 16th sanctions package, prepared for the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine, will not include a complete ban on Russian LNG purchases. Meanwhile, Germany receives between 3% to 9.2% of its gas from Moscow delivered from other EU countries.

Sweden will provide Ukraine its largest military aid package yet. The $1.2 billion in additional support includes $530 million to bolster Ukraine’s domestic weapons production as Western stockpiles are depleted by prolonged war, and $250 million directed to international defense funds, including $180 million under Denmark’s model to strengthen Ukraine’s defense-industrial base.

The aid package is Sweden’s 18th since Russia’s 2022 invasion, following a landmark security agreement with Kyiv in May, 2024, in which Stockholm committed $6.5 billion in military support through 2026. In March, 2024, the country became a NATO member, marking the country’s shift from historical neutrality in response to growing security threats from Moscow.

The UK is set to provide Ukraine with a new $2.5 billion aid package, focused on bolstering air defense and localizing arms production, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on Jan. 31. Under a historic 100-year partnership pact, the UK has pledged at least $3.6 billion in annual military aid for as long as it takes. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance reported Ukraine’s state budget received $3.8 billion in January, with the bulk coming from a loan funded by income derived from frozen Russian assets.

Ukraine’s demographic crisis continues to deepen, with the latest government data revealing that deaths outpaced births by nearly threefold in 2024. Ukraine’s Ministry of Justice recorded over 495,000 deaths against less than 177,000 births, a 5.7% decline in births from the previous year. While mortality fell marginally by 0.2%, the ongoing war, economic hardship, and mass emigration have exacerbated population decline. Ukraine’s Institute of Demography projections estimate the country’s population could shrink to 25 million by 2050, down from 35.8 million in mid-2024, with only 31.1 million residing in Kyiv-controlled territories.

This accelerating decline presents significant long-term challenges, from workforce shortages to economic stagnation. The birth rate has dropped to a critical 0.9 children per woman (third lowest globally), far below the 2.1 threshold needed for population replacement. Regions like Kherson and Donetsk, which are severely impacted by the war, face the starkest imbalances, with deaths surpassing births by up to 11 times.

By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks.