Tag: Involve

On the face of it, US President Donald Trump’s latest message to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin appears to be a threat.

“We can do it the easy way or the hard way,” Trump thundered in a social media post Wednesday, in which he demanded Putin do a “deal” on Ukraine.

If the “ridiculous war” did not end soon, Trump warned, he would “have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States.”

But after years of international financial pressure, designed to punish Moscow for its various malign activities, it is unclear what further measures being considered by Trump could make a difference.

Remember: Russia is already one of the world’s most sanctioned countries, with minimal trade with the United States, and has hitherto refused to change its course.

After years of failed American efforts to curb Moscow’s destructive actions overseas – from wars to poisonings, to election interference – the latest Trump ultimatum seems more like a sop to Russia hawks in his new administration than a genuine threat of decisive action.

Much more significant is Trump’s very public offer to broker a peace deal – albeit an offer wrapped inside a back-handed insult.

“I’m going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR,” Trump wrote.

On a war footing, Russia’s economy is indeed under enormous strain and Russian opinion polls consistently suggest there is little real public enthusiasm for Putin’s relentless fight to entirely dominate their Ukrainian neighbors.

True, Putin is increasingly autocratic and barely accountable to his electorate, but the Kremlin still keeps a close eye on public opinion, and Trump’s off-ramp may well be something Putin privately welcomes.

More likely, though, the Kremlin will see any ceasefire as a valuable opportunity to lock in territorial gains and rebuild its battered military. For Putin that would be a “very big FAVOR” indeed.