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Tag: ISW
Putin is creating conditions to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine – ISW
Vladimir Putin. Photo: Getty Images
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s statements about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and a possible future peace deal could become a tool to justify violating any agreements with Ukraine.
Source: ISW
Quote: “Putin claimed that any peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine conclude before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rescinds his 2022 decree will be invalid. However, even if the Ukrainian side agrees to cancel this decree, Putin is likely to find new reasons to violate the agreements.”
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Details: ISW notes that the Kremlin is creating a legal basis for ignoring future agreements by manipulating false interpretations of Ukrainian law.
Putin has already stated that Zelenskyy has lost legitimacy by not holding elections in 2024 during martial law and that the Verkhovna Rada is allegedly the only legitimate branch of government. At the same time, he calls for unconstitutional actions that can be used to declare this body “illegitimate” to justify his demands for a complete regime change in Kyiv and his unwillingness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities.
Such statements give Putin room for manipulation, analysts say. Even if agreements are reached, Russia could quickly violate them, citing false accusations of invalid agreements or the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin has used similar tactics before, violating the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.
Quote: “Even if Zelenskyy or other parts of the Ukrainian government agreed to lift the decree banning negotiations with Putin, Putin would likely violate any peace or other agreement that he reaches with Ukraine under the false justification that such agreements are ‘invalid’ as long as he believes that he can achieve his maximalist war aims through military operations.”
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 January:
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defence against Russian aggression.
- Putin’s long-standing theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
- Putin indicated that he will not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin.
- Putin’s statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and of a possible future peace agreement set conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
- Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiations framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in Tver Oblast on the night of 28-29 January.
- The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed in a post on 29 January that Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik is the commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Robotyne, and Dnipro fronts.
- Volunteer recruitment rates in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine.
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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently released a report detailing how Russian President Vladimir Putin is creating conditions that would allow him to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine.According to the report, Putin has been ramping up military activities in eastern Ukraine and deploying additional troops to the region. This includes the recent buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, as well as ongoing military exercises in Crimea.
ISW warns that these actions are a clear indication that Putin is not interested in achieving a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Instead, he is laying the groundwork to potentially launch further military aggression in the future.
The report also highlights how Putin’s actions are undermining diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. By creating conditions that could lead to a breakdown of any future peace agreements, he is effectively sabotaging international efforts to bring about a lasting solution to the crisis.
In light of these developments, ISW is calling for increased international pressure on Russia to cease its aggressive actions in Ukraine and to uphold its commitments to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Failure to do so, the report warns, could have serious consequences for regional stability and security.
Tags:
- Putin
- Ukraine
- Peace agreements
- International security
- Conflict resolution
- Geopolitical tensions
- Russia-Ukraine relations
- Military aggression
- Diplomatic negotiations
- Security risks
#Putin #creating #conditions #violate #future #peace #agreements #Ukraine #ISW
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, January 29, 2025
Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on January 20 that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 — 150,000 of which were personnel killed in action.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on January 20 that the Kremlin is willing to negotiate with the United States about the war in Ukraine but indicated that he maintains his demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an aircraft production plant in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on January 20 as a part of an ongoing series of strikes aimed at degrading Russian military capacity.
- Ukrainian strikes against Russian defense industrial base (DIB) targets are reportedly affecting Russian forces’ combat capabilities.
- Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities continue efforts to supply Transnistria with European gas.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
- A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor repeated on January 20 complaints that Russian milbloggers first issued in May 2024 about insufficient quality controls on Russian artillery shells.
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Authors: Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and George Barros.
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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, January 29, 2025The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released a new assessment of the ongoing Russian offensive campaign, along with an updated map to provide a visual representation of the current situation on the ground.
According to the latest report from ISW, Russian forces continue to make significant gains in their offensive campaign, with key advances being made in several strategic locations. The assessment highlights the continued use of airpower and artillery by Russian forces, which have been instrumental in their successes thus far.
The updated map provided by ISW shows the current front lines and key areas of conflict, giving an overview of the evolving situation in real-time. It also highlights areas where intense fighting is taking place and where Russian forces are consolidating their positions.
ISW’s analysis also points to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region, with reports of civilian casualties and displacement increasing as the conflict escalates. The report underscores the need for a swift resolution to the conflict to prevent further suffering and instability in the region.
As the situation continues to unfold, ISW will be closely monitoring developments on the ground and providing regular updates to keep the international community informed. Stay tuned for more updates on the Russian offensive campaign as the situation continues to evolve.
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ISW Russian Offensive, Russian Campaign Assessment, Map Update, January 29 2025, ISW assessment, Russian military campaign, Russia offensive update, military map analysis, Russian military strategy, Ukraine conflict update, ISW report on Russian offensive
#ISW #Russian #Offensive #Campaign #Assessment #Map #Update #JanuaryRussia exploiting energy crisis in Moldova to justify future aggression – ISW
Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against that country.
That is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as cited by Ukrinform.
The analysts note that both Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities are working to address Moldova’s gas crisis. However, the pro-Russian self-proclaimed Transnistrian authorities have consistently rejected assistance from either Ukraine or Moldova. For instance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 12 that Ukraine was ready to supply coal to Transnistria, but the offer went unanswered. Similarly, Transnistria recently declined Moldova’s proposal to receive gas via European platforms.
“Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova,” the ISW analysts believe.
They also noted that Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihail Popșoi stated that Russia is using its artificially created energy crisis to try to destabilize the Moldovan economy in order to influence the upcoming elections.
The analysts also refer to the comments by Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on January 14. He claimed that that Moldovan authorities are to blame for the current energy crisis even though the crisis began on January 1 when Gazprom cut gas supplies to Transnistria while making false allegations about Moldova’s debt to Gazprom. Patrushev emphasized that Russia’s priority in Moldova is to “protect Russia’s compatriots” from “discrimination.” He drew a parallel between Moldova and Ukraine, suggesting that Moldova’s “anti-Russian policy” might “lead to Moldova either becoming part of another state [likely in reference to Romania] or ceasing to exist altogether.”
Read also: Chisinau responds as Kremlin claims Moldova “may cease to exist“ “Russia has long claimed its need to protect its “compatriots abroad” in Ukraine as a justification for its aggression against Ukraine, and Patrushev’s statements suggest that the Kremlin is setting conditions to exploit the artificially created gas crisis in Moldova to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova as a necessary response to Moldova’s policies that threaten Russian “compatriots” in Moldova,” the reports says.
As reported by Ukrinform, on December 28, Gazprom announced it would halt gas supplies to Moldova, citing alleged debts by Moldovagaz. In response, Transnistrian authorities declared a state of emergency. After the gas supply was cut on January 1, central heating was shut off in Transnistrian cities, with gas only available for cooking. The region’s reserves are projected to last 20 days. To cope, Moldova’s Power Plant (Moldavskaya GRES) has switched to coal-based electricity generation.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently released a report detailing how Russia is exploiting the energy crisis in Moldova to justify potential future aggression in the region.According to the report, Russia has been using its control over energy supplies to Moldova as a means of exerting political pressure on the country. This has allowed Russia to gain influence and leverage over Moldova’s government, potentially setting the stage for future aggression in the region.
ISW warns that Russia’s actions in Moldova are part of a broader strategy to expand its influence and control in Eastern Europe. By exploiting the energy crisis in Moldova, Russia is able to further its own geopolitical goals and potentially set the stage for future aggression in the region.
The report serves as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by Russia’s aggressive tactics in Eastern Europe and highlights the need for vigilance and cooperation among Western allies to counter Russian aggression in the region.
Tags:
- Russia
- Energy crisis
- Moldova
- Aggression
- ISW
- Geopolitics
- Eastern Europe
- Foreign policy
- Security threats
- Regional tensions
#Russia #exploiting #energy #crisis #Moldova #justify #future #aggression #ISW
Russia postpones seizure of major cities to advance through open territories – ISW
A Russian soldier stands near the ruins of houses. Stock photo: Getty Images
Russia’s military commanders may have likely been given new tasks by Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, focusing their efforts on securing territorial gains rather than seizing major cities.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Analysts of the ISW note in their report that Putin, during his annual Direct Line press conference on 19 December, highlighted the achievements of Russian troops, which he said were advancing “square kilometres” along the line of contact. This approach contrasts with the previous emphasis on the capture of important settlements.
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Analysts say Putin may have instructed military commanders to postpone the capture of the strategic city of Pokrovsk, focusing instead on advancing through open fields and small towns. Russian troops are now 10 kilometres from the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
The capture of the whole of Donetsk Oblast remains one of the Kremlin’s key goals. This advance is likely to be used as an element of propaganda to demonstrate the success of the Russian army both domestically and internationally.
Analysts add that an organised operation against well-fortified cities could slow down the pace of the advance, which is critical to the Kremlin’s attempts to demonstrate Russian superiority on the world stage.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 December:
- Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear whether they will be able to exploit these gains to encircle the town or if their aim is to reach the administrative boundary of Donetsk Oblast.
- It remains uncertain which objective the Russian military command will prioritise, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin may have tasked the military with securing territorial gains rather than capturing major settlements.
- The Russian military command appears to have divided responsibility for the Pokrovsk front between the Central Military District’s 2nd and 41st combined arms armies (CAAs), and ISW has yet to observe significant Russian activity in the 41st CAA’s area of responsibility (AoR).
- Decreased combat effectiveness among Russian forces may be slowing their rate of advance on the Pokrovsk front.
- Increased losses of Russian armoured vehicles over the past year, particularly among units and formations engaged in frontline combat for most of 2024, may be impacting Russia’s rate of advance in specific sectors of the frontline.
- North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy additional troops and weapons to Russia, amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin used his meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to further Russia’s campaign to undermine Western unity in its support for Ukraine.
- The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag operation in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, likely in a continued effort to destabilise Moldova and hinder its integration into the European Union (EU).
- Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. (NOTE: A version of this text also appears in ISW-CTP’s 23 December Iran Update.)
- Russian forces have recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin’s Time of Heroes programme, which aims to appoint Russian veterans to government positions, is already causing conflicts between veterans and corrupt regional officials.
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Russia has decided to postpone its plans to seize major cities in Ukraine and instead focus on advancing through open territories, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).The decision comes as Russian forces face stiff resistance in urban areas, with Ukrainian troops putting up a fierce fight to defend their cities. By shifting their strategy to focus on advancing through open territories, Russian forces hope to avoid heavy casualties and make quicker progress in their invasion of Ukraine.
The move highlights the challenges that Russian forces are facing in their efforts to conquer Ukraine, as they encounter unexpected resistance and logistical difficulties. It also underscores the strategic flexibility of the Ukrainian military, which has been able to adapt to the changing battlefield conditions and put up a strong defense against the Russian invaders.
The postponement of the seizure of major cities by Russia could also be a sign that the Kremlin is reevaluating its initial invasion plans and considering alternative strategies to achieve its objectives in Ukraine. As the conflict continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how these shifting dynamics will impact the course of the war and the ultimate outcome for both sides.
Tags:
- Russia military strategy
- ISW analysis
- Seizure of major cities
- Russia military advancements
- Open territories tactics
- International relations
- Geopolitical developments
- Russia military operations
- ISW report
- Strategic military planning
#Russia #postpones #seizure #major #cities #advance #open #territories #ISW
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, December, 30, 2024
Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations.
- The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia’s force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025.
- US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.5 billion on December 30.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs – some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs – some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
- Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak border checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on December 30 after controlling the checkpoint for over 30 years.
- Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.
- A Russian milblogger who focuses on Russian veteran issues claimed that Russian forces have significantly strengthened the Russian international border with Ukraine since 2022 and no longer overwhelmingly rely on conscripts and alleged deserters as border security.
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Authors: Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan.
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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released its latest assessment of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine. As of December 30, 2024, the situation on the ground remains fluid, with both sides engaging in fierce fighting across multiple fronts.According to ISW’s latest map, Russian forces have made significant advances in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, including the capture of several key cities and strategic points. Ukrainian forces, however, have managed to hold their ground in some areas and have launched counteroffensives to push back the Russian forces.
ISW’s assessment highlights the continued use of heavy artillery, airstrikes, and ground forces by both sides, resulting in significant civilian casualties and displacement. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, with reports of shortages of food, water, and medical supplies in many areas.
ISW warns that the conflict is likely to escalate further in the coming weeks, with the potential for more intense fighting and a higher number of casualties. The international community has called for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to the conflict, but so far, both Russia and Ukraine have shown no signs of backing down.
Stay tuned for more updates on the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine as the situation continues to develop.
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ISW Russian Offensive, Russian Offensive Campaign, Russian Offensive Assessment, Russian Offensive Map, Russian Offensive Update, ISW Russian Offensive December 2024, Russian Offensive Campaign Update, ISW Russian Offensive Assessment 2024, Russian Offensive Map Update, ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
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