Tag: January

This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.

Like other Tuesdays this time of year, we once again have many notable teams taking the court. Coming off a scorching hot week, making profitable picks in all five of my articles, I present my predictions for three select games on Tuesday evening.

St. John’s at Georgetown

The Johnnies have won eight of nine conference games, while the Hoyas have lost five of six. It’s easy to kick a team when it’s down, especially given the opposite directions of each team, but there’s more to it when breaking down this game.

Specifically, St. John’s presents the worst possible matchup for Georgetown. The Hoyas struggle significantly with ball security, ranking last in the conference for turnovers and steals allowed. As fate would have it, in addition to having the best defensive efficiency rating among Big East teams, the Johnnies boast the second-best percentages for defensive turnovers and steals. Furthermore, Georgetown excels in one particular area offensively: rebounding. However, this strength may not hold much weight in this matchup, as both the Hoyas and the Red Storm’s defense rank the same in rebounding.

At the other end of the court, we again have a worst-case scenario. The Hoyas are terrible at securing the glass, ranking last in the conference in defensive rebounding. As it turns out, the Johnnies boast the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big East, again the last thing that Georgetown wants to see on the scouting report. The Hoyas are decent at causing turnovers, fourth among Big East teams, but the Red Storm is also fourth in offensive turnovers, again negating one of Georgetown’s few strengths. 

An observant hoops fan might notice that Georgetown only lost by five points when it visited St. John’s at Madison Square Garden; however, a closer look at the box score reveals that St. John’s shot abnormally awful from the floor. The Red Storm had its second-worst shooting night of the season, making just 23-of-66 (.348) field goal attempts for the entire game.

Overall, it’s hard to imagine a better matchup on paper. Anything can happen on any given day in the college hoops world, but given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I’m betting the Johnnies will cover on Tuesday.

College Basketball Best Bet: St. John’s -4.5

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

The Tar Heels have looked incredibly shaky in recent games. First, they needed overtime at home to survive against Boston College, a team that has lost seven of eight conference games and ranks 211th in overall efficiency. Before that, they lost at Wake Forest and lost at home to Stanford. These results are concerning all the way around. It was easy to give North Carolina the benefit of the doubt with its early season losses, considering it played the seventh-most difficult non-conference schedule in the nation, per KenPom, but it’s hard to understand playing an overtime period at Chapel Hill against arguably the worst team in the conference.

On paper, the Panthers are in a similar boat, having lost four of their last five games. The difference here, however, is that Pittsburgh is coming off its toughest stretch of the season, playing consecutive games against Duke, Louisville, Florida State, and Clemson. The Panthers didn’t have much of a chance at Duke, but they had a late lead against both Louisville and Clemson before ultimately losing, the latter ending in overtime. Earlier in the year, they defeated West Virginia and Ohio State, giving them a pair of quality wins.

The key in this matchup is Pittsburgh’s defense. It doesn’t look great at first glance, ranking 71st in the nation in efficiency, but it’s doing one thing exceptionally well during the conference season: causing chaos. The Panthers have the third-highest defensive turnover percentage among all ACC teams during league play, and it’s going against an offense that has floundered in the same area in the same period. Against ACC opponents, North Carolina ranks 10th in the league in offensive turnovers, which is not ideal for a team that needs to start winning games. This is also a concern because data provided by KenPom suggests that turnovers negatively hurt North Carolina’s offensive production the most out of any category other than effective field goal percentage. 

Turnovers aside, scoring has not come as easily for this group of Tar Heels compared to those from the past. North Carolina has the eighth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the ACC since conference play began, so this has been an issue for a while now, and there aren’t many positive indicators to suggest it’s improving.

At the other end of the court, the Tar Heels have performed better while playing defense against ACC opponents, but its defensive efficiency ranking for the whole season stands at 48th, which is not bad but not outstanding, either. The Panthers, in contrast, have played well on offense for most of the season, recording the 21st-best offensive efficiency rating. They are playing well in several other areas, too, ranking 20th in turnover percentage and 53rd in effective goal percentage. 

North Carolina’s certainly capable of pulling off a road win, but I’m betting Pittsburgh’s defensive style and home-court advantage will make all the difference. I’m taking the Panthers in this one. 

College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3.5

Oklahoma at Texas A&M

The Sooners haven’t been awful offensively, ranking ninth in efficiency among SEC teams, but they’ve been miserable in two key categories during conference play. Namely, they’ve had the fourth-worst turnover percentage in the league and second-worst defensive rebounding percentage. In the same period, the Aggies rank third in defensive turnovers and second in defensive rebounding. The latter means the road team likely won’t get many second-chance opportunities, but the former is far more concerning if you’re a Sooner. It’s hard to score if you have a turnover problem.

Oklahoma hasn’t played nearly as well at the other end of the court. During conference play, it sports the third-worst defensive efficiency rating among SEC teams, and it’s taking on a Texas A&M team with the seventh-best offensive efficiency rating in the league. The real problem, however, is on the glass. The Aggies boast the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, an impressive feat considering it finished last season in the same position. This is terrible news for the Sooners, which rank 285th in defensive rebounding percentage. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Texas A&M doesn’t clean up the glass at both ends of the court.

These two teams already clashed in Norman back on Jan. 8, with Oklahoma narrowly losing by two. The margin was close, but it’s worth noting that Oklahoma had its best three-point shooting game of the season, drilling 14-of-24 (.583) from beyond the arc. This performance was so out of character that you’d have to go back to 2023 (Jan. 28) to find the last time Oklahoma made at least 50 percent from three-point range. The Aggies dominated the other categories as expected, tallying 17 offensive boards and causing 18 turnovers, both doubling the other side of the equation.

Strengths and weaknesses aside, Texas A&M is simply the better team. It ranks eighth in defensive efficiency among all D-1 teams, and it ranks 39th in offensive efficiency, substantially higher than Oklahoma’s defense rating, which comes in at No. 76. I don’t usually weigh motivational angles too heavily, but in this case, I can imagine the Aggies are eager to redeem themselves after suffering a gut-wrenching loss in their last game at Austin. Either way, given the significant matchup advantages, I’m laying the points with Texas A&M in this spot.

College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -8

Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:

Here’s a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:

• St. John’s -4.5
• Pittsburgh -3.5
• Texas A&M -8

For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.