Groundhog Day is on its way and if Punxsutawney Phil or Michigan’s Woody the Woodchuck don’t see their shadows this year, we could see an early spring, the folk tale says.
Since the 1800s, Groundhog Day has been observed on Feb. 2. The longstanding tradition calls for the fur-bearing weather forecaster to tell us if spring is coming.
According to the lore, if the groundhogs — known as woodchucks in Michigan — emerge from their burrows and:
- see their shadow: They will retreat and there will be six more weeks of wintry weather.
- don’t see their shadows: Early spring weather is right around the corner, and we can expect warm temperatures in the coming weeks.
A look at the holiday and what it means:
When is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day is Monday, Feb. 2.
The celebrations revolving around Groundhog Day will go on for multiple days, but Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil will make his prediction early in the morning.
What is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day is rooted in the Christian holiday Candlemas, the midway point between the winter solstice and spring equinox. During Candlemas, Christians would light candles to predict how long winter would last. The holiday stems from a centuries-old pagan and Christian tradition, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. It is also known as St. Brigid’s Day.
The first official Groundhog Day took place Feb. 2, 1887, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. According to History.com, we can thank newspaper editor Clymer Freas for the special day, as he and a group of hunters declared a groundhog from the town as the official predictor.
Today, the ceremony is organized by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which also cares for the groundhog year-round.
What is a groundhog?
Groundhogs are rodents — related to such things as squirrels and other small animals.
In Michigan, we call them woodchucks. They also are known as marmots and whistle pigs.
How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?
Sadly, the groundhog is often wrong when it comes to his predictions.
Last year, 2024, was the third straight year the groundhog was reported to have spotted his shadow, something he has done 107 times since his first prediction in 1887. Though he has apparently seen his shadow in 84% of his predictions, Phil has been right only about 39% of the time, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac.
Phil’s track record in a recent 10-year span has kept up with that historical trend, with the groundhog being right just 40% of the time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The agency compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts to arrive at its conclusion.
The Library of Congress agrees that groundhogs have no power in predicting the weather, but adds “seeing wild groundhogs out and about during winter months might indicate that the season is almost over.”
From the real experts:When does winter end in Michigan? Here’s how long snow could fall
Punxsutawney Phil’s recent predictions and Groundhog Day results
Here are the past 10 predictions made by Punxsutawney Phil:
- 2014: Shadow
- 2015: Shadow
- 2016: No Shadow
- 2017: Shadow
- 2018: Shadow
- 2019: No Shadow
- 2020: No Shadow
- 2021: Shadow
- 2022: Shadow
- 2023: Shadow
- 2024: Shadow
Michigan’s own groundhog
Michigan’s official groundhog Woody the Woodchuck resides at the Howell Nature Center. He began forecasting in 1999 and has a 67% accuracy rate, according to the center.
Last year, Woody predicted a longer winter, conflicting with the report from Punxsutawney Phil.
How to celebrate Groundhog Day in Michigan
Michiganders who want to see Woody make her live prediction can join The Howell Nature Center for their annual Groundhog Day event. The wildlife staff will offer free continental breakfast at the Pineview Lodge, starting at 7:30 a.m., followed by holiday-theme games and information sessions, and then the all-important prediction.
Where else do groundhogs predict the weather?
Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, hosts a Groundhog Day celebration featuring Jimmy the Groundhog.
The 77th annual Sun Prairie Groundhog Prognostication organizers claim Jimmy has an “extremely high accuracy rate on his annual predictions, making him an outstanding leader in meteorological circles.”
Woodstock, Illinois, hosts Groundhog Days from Jan. 30 to Feb. 2.
The city, 51 miles northwest of Chicago, is the site of actor Bill Murray’s “Groundhog Day” movie, filmed in the town in 1992.
In addition to movie screenings and various other events, the annual prognostication takes place at 6:30 a.m. Feb. 2.
In West Virginia, Freddywill offer his take on the winter weather on Feb. 2.
The 45th annual event is free; gates open at 8:30 a.m. Groundhog Day activities will officially start at the amphitheater at 9:30 a.m. There will be music, free hot chocolate and cookies, activities and opportunities to tour the Wildlife Center. The Center’s ninth annual Woodchuckin’ Contest will start at 10:30 a.m.
In case you’ve lost confidence in groundhogs to tell the weather, the Milwaukee County Zoo has asked its dwarf goats to step in.
Nigerian dwarf goats will take over for the weather prediction duties at 9 a.m. (CST) Feb. 2 at the zoo’s Northwestern Mutual Family Farm Goat Yard before it opens to the public for the day.
USA Today reporters contributed.
Woody the Woodchuck, who resides at the Howell Nature Center, will now be predicting the weather on Groundhog Day, just like Punxsutawney Phil and other famous groundhogs. This lovable woodchuck will be using his keen instincts to determine whether we will have an early spring or six more weeks of winter.
Stay tuned to see if Woody agrees with his fellow furry forecasters or if he has a unique prediction of his own. Either way, we can’t wait to see what this adorable woodchuck has in store for us this Groundhog Day!
Tags:
Michigan, Woody the Woodchuck, fur-bearing forecasters, weather prediction, Groundhog Day, Michigan wildlife, rodent weather predictions, animal weather forecasting
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