Tag: Juniper

[UPDATE] The recently-announced Tesla Model Y Juniper update will face pricing challenges in the U.S. reflecting a rapidly changing EV pricing landscape. The updated Model Y — already introduced in China — is expected to be introduced in the U.S. in the coming weeks. The Model Y is the best selling EV in the U.S., dwarfing all competitors.

Trump administration will complicate Model Y Juniper pricing in U.S.

President Trump said on Monday that the “EV mandate” will be revoked. “With my actions today, we will end the Green New Deal and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry and keeping my sacred pledge to our great American auto workers,” Trump said in the Capitol Rotunda.

The President also issued an executive order that considers “the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies.” But how that will be fleshed out in the coming days and weeks is not yet clear.

Guidelines set by the Biden Administration state, among other things, that more than half of all vehicle sales in the U.S. by 2032 should be zero-emission vehicles. Almost all zero emission vehicles sold in the U.S. today are electric vehicles. Trump claims that this is tantamount to an “EV mandate.” The term “EV mandate” is used loosely by the President. Its origin stems from guidelines set by the Biden Administration. “It is not a mandate,” said Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “It was an aspirational target” set by Biden, she added.

President Donald Trump’s transition team reportedly is intent on killing the $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicle purchases. This credit has been a signature measure of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, to boost EV adoption. The IRA incentives, including the $7,500 EV tax credit, promote the sale of EVs which helps car manufacturers meet the requirements of the Biden guidelines. It is unclear when the Trump administration might take concrete steps to eliminate the $7,500 credit. Notably, it would take Congressional action to eliminate the credit.

Tax credit keeps Tesla prices down

To date, the IRA incentives have been a huge factor in keeping the starting price of the Model Y, for example, down to well below $40,000. Currently, the starting price of the Y in the U.S. is around $37,500 with the credit versus $44,490 without. California, for its part, said it would restart state incentive programs if the tax credit is eliminated but these are just promises at the moment. And it’s not clear what other states would do.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated in July that removal of the federal EV tax credit would “only help Tesla” and be devastating to competitors. But there’s no way to translate that bravado into actual future pricing.

Model Y Juniper China price

But a vanishing EV mandate isn’t the only thing that prospective U.S. Tesla buyers should keep their eyes on. Initial Model Y Juniper pricing in China — where it is slated for March availability — is higher than the previous version of the Model Y. Will this translate to higher prices in the U.S.?

• China Juniper RWD: 263,500 yuan (around $36,000) for entry-level Rear Wheel Drive Model Y. That’s an increase of about 5.4% over the previous Y in China.
• China Juniper AWD: 303,500 yuan (around $42,000) for The Long Range AWD variant. That’s an increase of about 4.3% in China.
• U.S.*: $44,990 ($37,490 with $7,500 federal tax incentive) for entry-level RWD Model Y.
• U.S.: $47,990 ($40,490 with $7,500 federal tax incentive) for Long Range AWD Model Y variant.

*Price for current non-Juniper version in U.S.

Will Model Y take a sales hit or is it unassailable?

The Model Y was the by far the best selling U.S. EV in 2024, with over 370,000 vehicles sold, far exceeding sales of the next-nearest non-Tesla competitor, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, by over 320,000 vehicles, according to Kelley Blue Book. (The Model 3 was No.2 with about 190,000 vehicles sold.) But will the refresh — which is not a major design makeover — be enough to sustain its popularity? “For 2025, the Tesla Model Y is unlikely to be outsold by any other EV in the US, in part because Tesla still has more production capacity than others,” said S&P Global Mobility’s Brinley. She added, however, that the design, even with the refresh, is still dated.

What should prospective buyers do?

The obvious answer is: buy a Y while you can still get the $7,500 discount — which is essentially what the federal tax credit is for many buyers. Wait and you roll the dice. If you wait, you’ll get an improved Model Y but you may have to pay more, possibly a lot more. The current (non-Juniper) version of the Y is available both to order and on the (sometimes less expensive) inventory page in the U.S. But note that both the RWD and Performance versions — depending on the day — often have limited availability on the inventory page. The popular Long-Range AWD shows good inventory availability, however.

Update adds comments from Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility, clarifies what the “EV mandate” is, and adds a statement from the Trump executive order relating to the “EV mandate.”