Tag: Lineup

This week is going to be a whirlwind between Christmas … and the onslaught of DFS slates we have in front of him.

Make sure you bookmark ChristmasFootball.com for all of your Christmas football needs.

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 16 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 3,200 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 16 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• Two of the RBs were locks: Jahmyr Gibbs and James Conner. That much was clear after over 2/3rds of the field decided to play both of the RBs in great spots.
• I also conceded Brenton Strange in my cash lineup. I’m assumed 60+ percent of the field would play him in Double-Ups so instead of trying to get cute in cash, Strange is the pierce I play and move on. The outcome sucked but he didn’t really affect outcomes of cash lineups.
• The only other lock in my lineup from the beginning of the week was D.J. Moore. His 16 targets against the Lions previously loomed large and while 14 PPR points is a fine outcome, you were left wanting moore.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

• Ok, I need to be 100% transparent. This is something I shared on the podcast and probably isn’t the most actionable advice for DFS here but I emotionally hedged this week in cash. I wish I could say I could remove myself and be above this… nope!
• I ran this poll below a few weeks back but my main home league is the elusive title for me in fantasy. Always the bridesmaid. In my semi-final matchup, I was facing (get this) James Conner, Brian Thomas Jr., Chase Brown, and Brenton Strange. Yep, four dudes who profiled as legit cash options this week.

https://t.co/WnnUQz8Q92 pic.twitter.com/rKsPJDZgvB

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 5, 2024

• With Conner and Strange already in, the hardest part was sifting through RBs. I liked Bijan Robinson the most but his price was causing me to feel uncomfortable at some of my other WR spots. Also, he is on my main league team. There was more emotional hedging than you could know. If Bijan went off, hey I’ll be happy! Chase Brown was a happy consolation prize knowing he’d been an RB1 for six straight games! And if he went off, I could feel good in DFS but bad in my main league. I know… not that complicated, perhaps a bit myopic and self-centered!
• In case you thought you were the only one, the RBs on Week 16’s slate went absolutely bonkers. In tournaments, you could’ve had two guys hit 25+ points and it probably didn’t matter. You needed three of them and there were so many different guys who hit that mark (Betz’s Slatebreaker JTT, James Cook, etc.)
• At QB, Michael Penix Jr. and Anthony Richardson were the only real options on my radar. I once again emotionally hedged here playing Richardson > Penix for my Falcons fandom. But also, I was worried that Atlanta would turn him into a game manager. You certainly played the slate right playing Penix knowing so many other stud RBs balled out. However, I did think Richardson’s rushing floor was enough to push him to my QB1 spot in the Best Plays rankings.
• The real question for this slate was what you would do in the middle range of WRs. Here were our WR Best Plays and honestly, I liked a lot of them.

• Meyers snuck in above BTJ thanks to AOC being the QB for the Raiders. Malik Washington was a late addition and probably a bit lazy of a player to throw in there at the last minute.
• At DST, I shared that paying up (above $3K) was what builds were dictating this week. I hate paying up for a defense but BUF and CIN both looked like prime spots at home to ball out. Both were excellent plays and I landed on the Bills.
• Also, something I shared with our Discord:

What Did the Field Do

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players used the most in cash style contests. You can compare the roster percentage, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they X’ed this week.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• In hindsight, the extra cash I used getting up to the Bills could’ve been used elsewhere. The Bengals were certainly in play against DTR so I probably should’ve saved that $300 and paid up at another spot: JSN for Nabers rom Jakobi? Either of those pivots would’ve definitely had me hit the cash line.

2024 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

Welp, I missed the cash line for the first time since Week 9! However, that emotional hedging was worth it as I currently will be playing for my home league title.