Tag: Locks

The NBA named the 10 “starters” for this year’s All-Star Game(s) last week, and to no one’s surprise, the league’s biggest stars made the cut. LeBron James will start for a 21st consecutive season. His aging rivals, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, will join him. The seven other spots went to a relatively predictable group of the NBA’s best and brightest: Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.

Generally speaking, the starters are easy enough to predict. Fan voting results are publicly available ahead of time, and the media tends to be pretty open about who it plans to vote for. But All-Star reserves can get a bit funkier in large part because of how opaque the process is. They are selected by the NBA’s head coaches, who do not share their ballots publicly. Their preferences, unlike those of fans or media members, are a bit harder to predict.

But we are still going to try before the reserves are announced Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET. Below are our predictions for the seven reserves in each conference who will be chosen to fill out this year’s All-Star rosters. As a reminder, this year’s All-Star Weekend will not conclude with a single game, but rather, a four-team tournament. The 24 All-Stars will be split into three teams, drafted by the cast of Inside the NBA (Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith), and they will hold a tournament that also includes the winning team from the Rising Stars Challenge. So, with that in mind, here are our predictions for the last 14 All-Star spots.

For the reserves, each conference has seven players split into two guards, three frontcourt players and two wild-card spots. Let’s get to it.

Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference front court is relatively easy because so many candidates have dropped out of the running. Jimmy Butler’s trade request and the drama that has followed has killed his candidacy. Jalen Johnson had a real shot, and was probably the best overall candidate from the Hawks a month ago, but his season-ending shoulder injury knocked him out. Bam Adebayo might have a case if he hadn’t forgotten how to shoot this season. A similar story has played out for Scottie Barnes, who made his first All-Star team a season ago but is down to around 27% on 3s this season. Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Joel Embiid have all played at an All-Star level, but just haven’t been available enough.

So this is relatively straightforward. Evan Mobley might be the Defensive Player of the Year, non-Wemby division. Cleveland recently had to play four games without him and gave up a staggering 115.4 points per 100 possessions in that stretch, which included two rare losses. His growth as a ball-handler and shooter on offense have made him an All-Star lock. Coaches value winning, so the second-best player on a No. 1 seed is usually going to make it.

How about the second-best player on a defending champion? It’s been an odd season for Jaylen Brown. His 3-point shot has regressed and he hasn’t been quite as good on defense following his run to Finals MVP a year ago. He’s made up for it by taking on a much bigger playmaking burden, putting up nearly five assists per game, and by taking advantage of his new bulk to get to the line more than ever. Is it a typical Jaylen Brown season? No, but it’s certainly been an effective one. He’s an All-Star.

The last spot drops off a bit, and on merit, a fifth guard arguably deserves a reserve slot, but the rules dictate at least three frontcourt players are chosen, so Pascal Siakam takes the last spot. He’s been by far the most reliable Pacer this season as Tyrese Haliburton has played his way back into All-Star form, and the fact that he’s making 3s this season has been a pretty pleasant surprise. He’s not quite the defender he was at his Toronto peak, but he’s been a catalyst behind Indiana’s improvement on that end of the floor. In the end, he’s an easy pick over the otherwise underwhelming frontcourt crop.

Three of our guard slots are easy. Order them however you’d like, but Darius Garland, Damian Lillard and Cade Cunningham are locks. Lillard could get in on track record alone, but fortunately for the Bucks, he’s outplaying his 2023-24 self in just about every way. The Bucks are winning at a contender’s rate since their 2-8 start, and while Lillard and Antetokounmpo haven’t fit together quite as seamlessly as we hoped upon the trade that brought them together, they have at least figured out how to work together well enough to drag the Bucks back into comfortable playoff position.

Just about every catch-all metric this season suggests that Garland, not Mitchell, has been Cleveland’s best player. Is that fair? It depends on your perspective. Defenses plan for Mitchell much more than Garland, and even in Cleveland’s relatively egalitarian offense, Mitchell is the higher-usage player of the two. But Garland is flirting with a 50-40-90 shooting season while carrying a greater playmaking burden. Any debate between the two only would have mattered on the starter front. Both are clear and obvious All-Stars for the best team in the East.

Cade Cunningham has the Pistons at .500. They went 93-289 over the five previous seasons, and while they’ve added a bit of shooting, the roster really hasn’t grown that much. Cunningham is the only player on the roster that ranks in the top 125 in the NBA in terms of VORP, for instance, or if you prefer box score stats, he leads his team in total points and assists while ranking second in rebounds and steals. He’s doing everything for a Detroit team that would still be tanking if not for him.

The last spot is where this gets hard. In truth, the “great stats, bad teams” crowd cancels each other out. LaMelo Ball’s counting stats aren’t quite as gaudy as they were earlier in the season, so guaranteeing him a slot on the basis of averaging 28 points and seven assists seems a bit unfair when Tyrese Maxey is right on his heels in terms of volume, but shoots and defends better. Zach LaVine’s efficiency laps both of theirs, though he’s far less of a playmaker. Ultimately, it’s important to remember who our selectors are here. Coaches tend not to be as enthused about stats when they don’t lead to winning. There’s an “empty calories” feel to the seasons Ball, Maxey and LaVine have had this season, and that’s probably going to cost them spots.

The real race here is between two players: Trae Young and Tyler Herro. Young is the NBA’s assists leader, but his shooting numbers across the board are down. Both are miserable defenders, but Herro has proven more capable of at least functioning within a healthy ecosystem. Herro isn’t responsible for nearly as much offensively as Young is, but the job he’s done keeping the Heat offense afloat this season has been downright inspiring. That unit dies when he goes to the bench. Nobody else on that roster is creating advantages this season. It’s been a career-best season for Herro in nearly every respect. He’s never shot better from 3. He’s never generated more shots for teammates. He’s never gotten to the line this much. He’s come much closer to matching Young’s volume than Young has to matching Herro’s efficiency on similarly limited offenses. That gives him the slimmest edge. Miami’s reputation probably doesn’t hurt where the coaches are concerned, either. The Heat are among the most-respected organizations in the NBA. The tie tends to go to the reputation.

Western Conference

The East is loaded with guards. The West has two pretty clear picks with the rest of the roster going to the frontcourt. Frankly, Anthony Edwards should probably be starting. He’s outscoring Stephen Curry significantly, and, amazingly, shooting better from 3-point range. He’s a far better defender, and he’s remained much healthier. The starting choices are, to an extent, a popularity contest. Nobody is beating Curry on that front. Edwards will have to settle for a reserve slot.

On paper, Kyrie Irving looks like he’s having a slightly worse season for Dallas than he did a year ago. He isn’t. He’s done an admirable job leading Dallas without Luka Doncic for much of the season, and his efficiency is more or less where it was a year ago despite the extra defensive attention that has come with Doncic sidelined. Just as importantly: we now have a two-year sample of Irving defending fairly well for the Mavericks. That was a problem for him earlier in his career, and it’s one that tends to exacerbate for older, small guards. It’s gone the other way for Irving. He plays his role reliably and knows when to dial up the effort in high-leverage moments. He’s been everything the Mavericks need him to be and more.

Victor Wembanyama is set to become the first player in NBA history to average three 3-pointers and three blocks per game in a single NBA season. Dig deep enough and you can find something historic about just about every game he’s played this season. The NBA has never seen anything like him. He’s going to win Defensive Player of the Year this season. He’s going to win it another dozen or so times before it’s all said and done. He’s a stone-cold lock.

So is Anthony Davis, even if his bitterness over Wembanyama surpassing him defensively is a bit ridiculous. Davis still has the offensive edge even if his jumper has never come close to matching its bubble accuracy. He’s still obliterating opponents at the basket, but he’s quietly taken on more of an offensive hub role this season with LeBron James picking his spot at age 40. JJ Redick has made a point of entrusting him with more of the offense, and he’s delivered.

Jaren Jackson Jr., not Ja Morant, has been the best Grizzly this season. He’s not quite blocking shots at the rate he was back when he won Defensive Player of the Year, but his evolution on offense has changed everything for the Grizzlies. He’s averaging more points per minute than Durant, Davis and Tatum! These aren’t free points generated by teammates, either. Over 45% of Jackson’s field goals are unassisted. For reference, only around 24% of Wembanyama’s field goals are unassisted. Jackson is creating his own points, dominating in the paint and still making 3s while anchoring one of the league’s better defenses. He absolutely has to make the team.

In the end, three players are left to fight for the last two spots: Domantas Sabonis, Jalen Williams and James Harden. Remember, we’re not picking All-Stars here, but rather, predicting who we think the coaches select. Remember when Harden led the NBA in assists in 2023, but still missed the All-Star Game? That looms large here. Harden does not seem especially popular among this particular group of selectors. His sub-40% field goal percentage isn’t helping him here either. Harden has a strong case. He and Norman Powell are really the only shot-creators the Clippers have had during this surprise season. But the Clippers are ultimately a defensive-minded team, and Harden’s numbers aren’t gaudy enough to guarantee him a selection. In a tie, well, history suggests he’s not in great shape.

Domantas Sabonis is a victim of his era. At any other point in NBA history, a center averaging 6.5 assists while shooting nearly 50% on 3-pointers would be treated as witchcraft. But today? Nobody seems to notice because Nikola Jokic is, well, Nikola Jokic. Sabonis is just quietly leading the NBA in rebounding while scoring a remarkably efficient 21 points every night and setting up his teammates as Sacramento’s offensive hub. The fans may not notice, but the coaches hopefully do.

Once again, we defer to winning for our final pick. Jalen Williams isn’t shooting as well as he did a season ago, but he is a quintessential winner for the NBA’s best team. When all three Thunder centers were hurt, he casually slid over to a position he’d never played in the NBA and held down the fort. It’s easy for any single defender to get lost in Oklahoma City’s historic unit, but Williams is the biggest of the Thunder stoppers and quietly among the best of them. Lu Dort gets all of the press, but Williams has a real shot at an All-Defense selection while serving as the No. 2 scorer on a team that’s going to win 65 games. Good luck keeping that résumé off an All-Star roster.