Losers

Global winners and losers of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs

An employee stands at a blast furnace. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would impose new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters that he planned to announce new 25% tariffs on Monday, targeting imports of steel and aluminum.

The proposed levies would be in addition to existing duties and no timeline for implementation was specified.

The two metals are vital components in various industries, including transportation, construction, and packaging.

Here’s a look at the biggest potential winners and losers if Trump goes ahead with his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs.

The United States

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest winner of the trade tariffs is likely to be the U.S.

U.S. steel imports have declined substantially over the past decade, official data shows, falling 35% between 2014 and 2024 — despite a 2.5% annual uptick to 26.2 million metric tons last year. Many attribute this to tariffs introduced under President Trump’s first administration.

America’s aluminum imports, however, have risen 14% over the past decade, with U.S. exports of the metal rising progressively since 2020.

On Monday, James Campbell, analyst at commodity pricing consultancy CRU, told CNBC that he expected the potential tariffs to have varying effects on the U.S. over time.

“At the start, this could damage demand,” he said. “In the longer term, we can see investment coming through.”

Since Trump’s first wave of tariffs in 2018, CRU’s Campbell said the U.S. had seen investment rise in both the steel and aluminum sectors.

During his first presidency, Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU. His administration also placed volume limits on imports from various other nations, including South Korea, Argentina and Australia.

A later report from the Congressional Research Service found that in the first five months of the policy, the Trump administration collected more than $1.4 billion in revenue.

Canada and Mexico

The two countries are among the biggest exporters of steel and aluminum to the United States, so are likely to be hurt by the tariffs if they come into effect — even after being granted temporary respite from blanket duties on all their exports into America.

Germany

Germany is also a big steel exporter to the U.S. and is likely to be negatively affected by the tariffs.

However, Thyssenkrupp, one of Europe’s largest steelmakers, told CNBC Monday it expects “very limited impact” on its business if the U.S. levies additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The German company said Europe remains its primary market for steel with only “high-quality” niche products exported to the U.S. where it maintains a “good market position”.

“The majority of thyssenkrupp’s sales in the U.S. come from the trading business and the automotive supply business,” a spokesperson said via email. “In principle, Thyssenkrupp is well positioned in these businesses in the US with a significant share of local manufacturing for the local market. Much of the production for U.S. customers takes place within the U.S..”

Asian exporters

South Korea, Vietnam and Japan are also among the countries likely to see their metals hit with new import tariffs if Trump goes ahead with the policy.

Imports from Vietnam grew by more than 140% from the previous year, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. trade data. Taiwan also exported 75% more steel to the U.S. in 2024 compared to the previous year.

This developing story is being updated.

Global Winners and Losers of Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has sparked a global debate on the potential winners and losers of this controversial move. While the tariffs are aimed at boosting domestic production and protecting American jobs, they have also raised concerns about a possible trade war and its impact on the global economy.

So who are the winners and losers in this scenario?

Winners:
1. U.S. Steel and Aluminum Industries: The most obvious winners of the tariffs are the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, which stand to benefit from increased demand for domestic products.
2. Domestic Producers in Countries Exempted from Tariffs: Countries like Canada, Mexico, and Australia, which have been exempted from the tariffs, may see increased demand for their steel and aluminum products in the U.S. market.
3. Recyclers and Secondary Producers: With the increased cost of imported steel and aluminum, recyclers and secondary producers may find it more cost-effective to use scrap materials to produce new products.

Losers:
1. U.S. Businesses Dependent on Imported Steel and Aluminum: Industries that rely heavily on imported steel and aluminum, such as automakers and construction companies, may face higher production costs and reduced competitiveness in the global market.
2. Consumers: Higher prices for steel and aluminum products could lead to increased costs for consumers, affecting a wide range of industries from automobiles to canned goods.
3. Global Trade Relations: The tariffs have already sparked concerns about a potential trade war, with countries like China and the EU threatening retaliation. This could lead to higher tariffs on U.S. exports and disrupt global trade relations.

In conclusion, while the tariffs may benefit certain domestic industries, they also have the potential to harm U.S. businesses and consumers, as well as disrupt global trade relations. The long-term impacts of this move remain uncertain, but it is clear that the global economy is likely to see both winners and losers as a result of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

Tags:

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Aluminum tariffs and international markets
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#Global #winners #losers #Trumps #steel #aluminum #tariffs

February 10, 2025

Luka Dončić, LeBron James and the biggest winners and losers of the Lakers-Mavericks trade

Any time a newsbreaker has to follow up a report of a trade with, “Yes, this is real,” and “It’s 1000% real,” you know you have an absolute brain-melting stunner of a swap on your hands.

We awoke on Sunday morning in a world where Luka Dončić is a Laker, Anthony Davis is a Maverick, and the landscape of the NBA has changed. The reverberations from this one will be felt far, wide and for an awfully long time; let’s start getting our arms around it.

What follows is a stab at a first draft of history — a thumbnail sketch of who and what seems to have been helped and hurt through one of the most shocking moves the NBA has ever seen. We begin with the team that, yet again, lands the brightest superstar:

WINNER: Lakers exceptionalism

Strip out the spin, and here’s what’s left: The Los Angeles Lakers just traded a 31-year-old big man in his 13th season, a pair of 21-year-old guards not widely seen as future stars, a 2029 first-round draft pick and the Clippers’ 2025 second-round pick … for one of the five best basketball players on the planet.

Through six NBA seasons, Luka Dončić ranks third in league history in points per game, 12th in assists per game, and fourth in assist percentage and triple-doubles. He’s made the All-NBA First Team for the last five seasons, and has finished in the top five in MVP voting three times. He was the unquestioned best player on an NBA Finals team seven months ago. He is 25 years old and under contract through the end of next season (with a player option for 2026-27), giving the Lakers a long runway to work out a new longer-term extension to ensure that he will be the signature superstar of the NBA franchise most associated with signature superstars for the foreseeable future. (Which, in fairness, given the state of play in an NBA where Luka friggin’ Dončić just got traded, might not be as long as you’d think.)

This is a dream scenario for a Lakers franchise whose hopes for perennial championship contention after signing LeBron James and trading for Anthony Davis had resulted in one title, one Western Conference finals berth and three play-in tournament appearances in five seasons. As excellent as Davis has been and still is — I just voted for him to start in the All-Star Game two weeks ago — the Lakers have outscored opponents by just two points in nearly 4,600 minutes when he has played without LeBron since his arrival in L.A. in 2019. Not two points per 100 possessions; two points total.

Those numbers have trended more positively over the past two seasons, as James has finally started to show some more signs of slowing down and begun actively referring to Davis as the Lakers’ best player. But it was reasonable to wonder whether a version of the Lakers built around AD — an elite finisher and high-end defensive anchor who isn’t the sort of shot creator who all but guarantees a top-flight offense by himself — could sustain bona fide contention as he moved toward his mid-30s. If he was the price of doing business to land Dončić — whose Mavericks have finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency in four of the last five seasons, and routinely scored at top-five-or-better levels with Luka at the controls — then it’s a price you gladly pay if you’re the Lakers.

Davis has long represented effective excellence, but Dončić offers breathtaking brilliance. And for decades — from Mikan and Baylor to West and Wilt, from Kareem and Magic to Shaq and Kobe, and from LeBron, now, to Luka — breathtaking brilliance has been the Lakers’ brand. Whatever this deal doesn’t guarantee, it does ensure that, for at least the next few years, the brand remains strong.

WINNER: Rob Pelinka!

“The sense around the league, when talking to rival scouts and front-office personnel,” Jovan Buha of The Athletic wrote on Jan. 21, “is that standing pat or making a half-measure trade (likely one or two second-round picks) is more likely than the Lakers going all-in and trading both of their future first-round picks that can be moved.”

“The Lakers’ recent discussions with teams,” ESPN’s Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst reported on Jan. 24, “show little sign of aggression, sources say.”

Pelinka exited January seemingly holding a pair of first-round picks and not much else, reportedly looking for a serviceable center and some ball-handling help. He enters February with LUKA DONČIĆ — and he’s still got one of the first-round picks.

That’ll do. (Now he really needs that center, though.)

WINNER: Old-head wisdom

In his first on-the-record comments about the trade, Mavericks president of basketball operations Nico Harrison told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon that he pulled off the deal because “I believe that defense wins championships.”

Subsequent reporting cited “extreme frustration throughout the [Mavericks] organization about Dončić’s lackadaisical approach to diet and conditioning, which Dallas’ decision-makers believed negatively impacted his durability” … which is a long way of saying that they think the best ability is availability.

For all the new types of information that teams have access to and use in their decisions, sometimes the rationale is the same kind of stuff you might’ve heard from your coach, or your uncle, in the fifth grade. The game is always changing; the game, though, remains the same.

LOSER: Luka Dončić exceptionalism

However stunned you were to learn that Luka had been traded … imagine how stunned Luka must have been.

Again: top-five player, already likely on a glide path to the Hall of Fame, just entering his prime fresh off a first Finals appearance, firmly entrenched as the sun around which everything in Dallas orbited … until, suddenly, he wasn’t. According to the post-mortem reporting, Dončić didn’t request this trade; instead, it was the Mavericks who approached the Lakers about it.

OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - DECEMBER 10: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks prior to their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center on December 10, 2024 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images) — Luka Dončić is heading to the Lakers after seven seasons in Dallas. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)

As longtime NBA insider Marc Stein put it, Dallas’ decision-makers had “decided that they no longer trusted Dončić as the heir to the franchise.” That sure seems like a dramatic, 180-degree change in the way Dallas’ brain trust, led by Harrison, viewed Dončić. That shift was predicated, according to a slew of follow-up reports, on concerns regarding Luka’s commitment to conditioning, the possibility that hard living and light work might conspire to expedite his aging curve, and — most notably — the downside risk of committing a five-year, $345 million supermax contract to a player who has missed 45 games over the past three seasons with a litany of ankle, knee, quad, hamstring, groin and calf injuries, the latest of which has kept him on the shelf since Christmas and ensured he won’t be eligible for year-end awards consideration this season. (Stein reports that Dončić had been eyeing a return next Saturday; we’ll see whether the trade changes that expected timetable.)

It’s easy to imagine a player of Luka’s caliber hand-waving those concerns. Remember: Dončić has been the wonder boy, the special one, the prince and the prize since before he could drive. From Slovenia to Real Madrid to Dallas, there has never been an environment in which his brilliance was not the most important element in the equation, the most important factor in determining what a franchise did — which, as often as not, wound up being “whatever Luka wants.”

Now, in one fell swoop, he has been moved, in the middle of the season, by the only NBA franchise he’s ever known, without his say-so. He has lost out on that supermax contract, which only the Mavericks could have offered him (though he does have a pathway to recoup most of that money over time). He has been stunned by a realization that must have felt like a bucket of cold water to the face: that, in an environment where franchise cornerstones will soon be commanding nearly half a billion dollars in salary under a collective bargaining agreement in which spending deep into the luxury tax imposes draconian team-building restrictions, even the special ones aren’t invincible. Even the wunderkinds can be left wondering what the hell just hit them.

Which brings us to …

WINNER: Big, bold bets

… how Dončić responds to that realization.

The Lakers are betting that his supernova talent, combined with what you’d imagine is a furnace of fury at having been sent out of Texas on a rail under cover of night, will produce an even better Luka: one fueled by the desire to make Dallas pay for this, devoted to getting into the kind of shape that shows he’s worth every penny the Mavs cost him, committed single-mindedly to the task of becoming the latest luminary to land with the Lakers and wind up in the promised land. They’re betting that the reward of paying Dallas’ asking price — even knowing that it’s probably not as much as Dallas could’ve commanded in an open market, and surmising that Dallas must be doing things this way for a reason — is worth the risk of whatever might come with Luka over the years.

The Mavericks? They’re betting that the guy they’ve seen behind the scenes for the last half-decade — the one routinely dinged for showing up to camp in subpar shape and playing at over-par weight, whom they’d become accustomed to seeing pull up with a hitch in his giddy-up multiple times a season, whose two longest playoff runs ended with him misfiring a hail of jumpers against eventual championship defenses — isn’t going to find better health or calisthenic religion as his career enters his second decade. They’re betting that, as painful as moving on from one of the greatest players in franchise history is, it’s less painful than it would be to pay him $345 million to miss a quarter of every season, with their pathways to contention dwindling year over year.

“We really feel like we got ahead of what was going to be a tumultuous summer,” Harrison told Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.

One of those bets is going to go bust. It’s going to be fascinating to find out which.

LOSER: Mavericks fans’ estimation of Nico Harrison

It seems fair to say that the Dallas faithful aren’t too optimistic about their end of the deal bearing fruit:

Here’s where we’ll note — just for the purposes of being fair and balanced — that there was plenty of skepticism surrounding the first three huge trade-deadline moves of Harrison’s tenure: dealing Kristaps Porziņģis to the Wizards for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dāvis Bertāns in 2022; trading Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and draft picks to Brooklyn for Kyrie Irving in 2023; and turning Grant Williams, Seth Curry and several first-rounders into P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford in 2024. The first trade turned the page on the failed Dončić-Porziņġis experiment and set the table for a conference finals run; the latter two sparked last June’s Finals trip.

Maybe, given that track record, fans should give Harrison the benefit of the doubt.

“I’m sorry [fans] are frustrated,” Harrison told reporters on Sunday. “It’s something we believe in as an organization that’s going to make us better. We believed it sets us up to win, not only now, but in the future. And when we win, I believe the frustration will go away.”

The glass-half-empty view, though: Maybe those moves only worked as well as they did because the Mavericks had Luka friggin’ Dončić.

“You better be sure his body is going to fall apart,” an Eastern Conference executive told Bontemps. “That’s all I’m going to say.”

Speaking of bodies not falling apart …

WINNER: Anthony Davis’ years-long quest to not play center

In the short term, Davis gets to line up next to the rock-solid Gafford; in the long term, he can slot in alongside sophomore game-changer Dereck Lively II. No more 35-minute nights of banging bodies at the 5. Mission accomplished! (And lest we wonder if AD’s cool with the move … he waived a $5.9 million trade kicker to get it done while giving Dallas brass more flexibility to make further moves and work the buyout market. Seems like he’s on board!)

Harrison has reportedly wanted Davis for some time, targeting the Lakers as a Dončić destination specifically — rather than opening the Luka bidding to every team in the league — because L.A. could offer AD: an in-his-prime, two-way star who combines high-efficiency interior scoring, elite rebounding and the capacity to defang opposing offenses whether protecting the rim or erasing space on the perimeter. Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd, who coached AD as an assistant on the title-winning 2019-20 Lakers, can now deploy massive frontcourts featuring the 6-foot-10 Gafford, (eventually) the 7-1 Lively, the 6-10 Davis and 6-7 Washington up front, and a range of 6-5 to 6-7 swingmen (Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie, the newly arrived Max Christie, the just-returned Dante Exum) on the wing next to Irving.

It remains to be seen whether playing AD at the 4 with non-shooting 5s like Gafford and Lively results in too much offensive congestion for Dallas to consistently generate high-value looks in the half-court — though, with that complement of guards and Washington shooting 38% from deep on nearly five attempts per 36 minutes, there’s at least some cause for optimism about the ecosystem into which the Mavs would plop those two-big tandems.

What seems clear, though, is that the Mavs are gonna be friggin’ huge, should be better equipped at locking down the paint and could have the ingredients of a top-five defense … which, if Kyrie, AD and Co. can brute-force their way into an above-average offense, would give them roughly the same formula that propelled them to last season’s phenomenal finish and Finals run. And having Davis under contract on an extension through at least 2027 gives Dallas a multi-year window in which to maximize a construction that Harrison seems to think gives the Mavs a better chance of contention than it had before Saturday.

“He fits our timeframe,” Harrison told reporters Sunday. “If you pair him with Kyrie and the rest of the guys, he fits right along with our timeframe to win now and win in the future. And the future to me is three, four years from now. The future 10 years from now, I don’t know. They’ll probably bury me and [Kidd] by then. Or we’ll bury ourselves.”

LOSER: LeBron James, Lakers prime mover

For all the talk over the years about James operating as his teams’ de facto GM, orchestrating every move from behind the scenes just as he would manipulate the pieces on the chessboard on the floor, he reportedly had no idea this blockbuster was coming:

LeBron James learned of the Davis-Doncic trade after the Knicks game when it broke while he was out to dinner with his family, sources close to James told ESPN. James was surprised by the news, is processing it and had no idea it was in the works, sources said.

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) February 2, 2025

Whether you believe that or not, the nature of a blockbuster that imports a player 15 years James’ junior — one that Pelinka heralded as the arrival of “a one-of-a-kind, young global superstar who will lead this franchise for years to come” — lays bare a new state of affairs in Lakerland. As Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times wrote in the aftermath of the deal, “The trade […] means that getting James another run at a title in the short term is not the Lakers’ top priority.” Which, naturally, invites questions about what LeBron’s priorities might be, and whether we might find they’ve changed come the summer.

As unbelievable as it is that LeBron is averaging 24 points, 7.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game on 51/38/77 shooting splits at age-40, and about to start in his 21st All-Star Game, nobody knows how long he can keep this, or some version of this, up. Before Saturday, the looming specter of the end of King James’ reign cast a long shadow over the Lakers’ future. As of Sunday, though, that future will now be illuminated by another shining superstar — one the franchise expects will supplant James as its leading light. For the last six years, the Lakers have been LeBron’s team. This deal says that, soon enough, that won’t be true anymore.

That said:

WINNER: LeBron James, just, like, overall

LeBron wasted little time in confirming that he’s not in any rush to waive his no-trade clause, and that he intends to stay put in L.A. through Thursday’s trade deadline. Seems pretty smart!

Reasonable people can disagree over whether Dončić at this stage in his career is a better running buddy for James than Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were back in 2010, or Irving and Kevin Love were in 2014, or Davis was in 2019. What is clear, though, is that outside of making his way to Denver, LeBron was not going to find a better playmaking partner than Luka — one of the few players alive with a credible claim to being James’ equal as a facilitator in the pick-and-roll; in forcing a defense to commit multiple bodies to stopping him in order to open up something juicy on the weak side; in predicting and executing the kinds of passes that only a handful of players ever have even seen; in solving and breaking even the most complex coverages in real time.

LeBron can no longer guarantee a top-10 offense or a playoff berth on his own; a healthy Luka effectively can. I don’t know how long LeBron wants to keep playing. A partnership with Dončić, though, gives him yet another megawatt young partner who could help him remain in the mix for deep playoff runs for however long he does.

LOSER: The Lakers’ defense (as presently constituted)

L.A. entered Sunday giving up 115.7 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions without Davis manning the middle, according to Cleaning the Glass — a rate of defensive (in)efficiency that would sit 22nd in the NBA for the full season. It’s difficult to see things getting much better if head coach JJ Redick has to construct lineups around the 40-year-old James, the oft-derided Dončić and the oft-targeted Austin Reaves, especially without Christie, an ascendant on-ball defender at the point of attack, and without a high-end rim protector behind them. (Sorry for the stray, Jaxson Hayes.)

In the absence of a new 7-foot anchor in the paint — which I’d expect Pelinka to continue searching for between now and Thursday’s buzzer (sorry again, Jaxson) — I’d anticipate Redick and Co. to lean into switching, trying to leverage the liked-sized-ness and physicality of groupings featuring James, Dončić, recent addition and longtime Luka buddy Dorian Finney-Smith, new arrival Maxi Kleber, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish. Whether a switch-almost-everything approach with aggressive help and an attempt to force more turnovers can generate anything close to a league-average defense remains to be seen. It might not need to be much better than that, though, because …

WINNER: The Lakers’ half-court offense (as presently constituted)

… I’m betting that the Lakers, who largely underwhelmed in half-court point production during the LeBron-AD era, are going to score a lot of points.

With AD unavailable for Saturday’s matchup with the Knicks, the Lakers leaned heavier into smaller lineups, with Finney-Smith operating as a small-ball 5 (which he did throughout his tenure in Brooklyn, and at times in Dallas) alongside some combination of James, Hachimura and Vanderbilt, with Reaves, Christie and Gabe Vincent in the backcourt. Against the drop-coverage-heavy Knicks, Finney-Smith drilled five of six 3-pointers; the Lakers went 19-for-40 from deep as a team; and James, all 40 years and 21 seasons of him, went for 33-11-12 in an impressive double-digit win.

You can kind of mind’s-eye it from here: Luka on the ball in LeBron’s place; LeBron bumping up a slot, moving from point to power forward and playing more like Draymond Green as a short-roll playmaker in the pick-and-roll; Finney-Smith or Kleber spacing the floor at the 5; acres of space and opportunities for two of the most visionary playmakers in recent NBA history to seize and exploit. Sprinkle in Hayes — a consistent high-efficiency finisher in the two-man game dating back to his days in New Orleans, and a nice above-the-rim target for a lob-threat-loving playmaker like Dončić — and you’ve got the makings of an offense that could rise from eighth in half-court scoring efficiency up toward the top of the league … which, for the record, is where the Mavs have lived for most of the last half-dozen years, especially with Luka at the controls.

Harrison might not be wrong that defense wins championships, but in this era — one where the last two titles were won by overwhelming offenses, and the two before that went to a defense-snapping chaos agent in Stephen Curry and a defense-destroying battering ram in Giannis Antetokounmpo — you’ve also got to be able to short-circuit and unlock the elite defenses you’ll see along the way. In James and Dončić, Los Angeles now boasts two of the very best 16-game offensive players in the world; if the Lakers can get to mid-April, you can bet they’ll feel pretty confident about their chances of making it to June.

On the other side of the coin:

LOSER: The Mavericks’ shot creation (as presently constituted)

Whatever problems Dončić created for the Mavericks behind the scenes or on defense, he solved damn near every one of them on offense. His presence on the court all but ensured that everybody else got delicious looks on which to feast:

Wow. Here’s Dallas’ shot chart with Luka on-court (but excluding Luka’s shots) vs off-court.

Look how much his gravity and playmaking opens up the rim for others. pic.twitter.com/idgtC71w20

— Cranjis McBasketball (@Tim_NBA) February 2, 2025

Without him, the Mavericks’ offense could go from feast to famine.

Davis, for all his skills on the offensive end, has played his best basketball as an elbows-and-in finisher of what others (largely James and Reaves) create for him; self-created, unassisted field goals have accounted for less than 40% of his offensive diet in every season of his career. Without Dončić, Dallas now has one (1) player averaging more than four assists per game: Irving, who is about to turn 33, who has missed significant time every season for seven seasons (and four teams) running, who has already been battling shoulder and back issues for the past couple of months, and whose effectiveness waned considerably by the time he ran up against the longer and more athletic Celtics in the Finals.

Outside of Kyrie, the Mavericks’ top playmaking options are Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy — both fine enough players capable of producing in spurts, but hardly high-end facilitators who can serve as the backbone of a top-quality offense. Getting back Exum, a really nice connective-tissue passer and playmaker who’s missed most of this season due to injury, should help … but only so much. This Dallas roster was a race car built to be steered by one driver, and that guy races for another team now. Building a new kind of car on the fly is an awfully tall task; if Harrison, Kidd, Irving, Davis and Co. aren’t equal to it, the result could be the Mavericks stalling out — and a premature end to their time as a contender.

WINNER: Those looking for fresh trade speculation

The Lakers now definitely need another big man and, after pairing Luka with LeBron, don’t really seem to need Reaves’ ball-handling and shot creation, and still have a first-round pick to play with. The Mavericks now definitely need more ball-handling and shot creation, and now have an extra first-round pick to play with. Ladies and gentlemen, start your trade machines!

On a long enough content-generation timeline, even the juiciest rumored names can get kind of stale. An out-of-nowhere move like this one shakes the table, gets the blood pumping and injects fresh energy into the proceedings. (Jimmy Butler and Pelle Larsson to Dallas for P.J., Klay, Naji, Dwight Powell and some picks, anyone?)

Everything we thought we knew before Saturday night turns out to have been wrong — and, like, galactically so. Just imagine what new worlds we can imagine and destroy between now and Thursday.

The recent trade between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks involving Luka Dončić and LeBron James has sent shockwaves throughout the NBA community. Let’s break down the biggest winners and losers of this blockbuster deal.

Winners:

1. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks land the biggest star in the NBA in LeBron James, who will bring his championship pedigree and leadership to a young and talented Dallas team. Pairing James with Dončić gives the Mavericks a dynamic duo that could potentially dominate the Western Conference for years to come.

2. LeBron James – LeBron gets a fresh start in Dallas, where he will have the opportunity to play alongside one of the brightest young stars in the league in Dončić. With a strong supporting cast around him, LeBron has a chance to add to his already impressive resume and potentially bring another championship to Dallas.

3. Los Angeles Lakers – While losing LeBron James is a huge blow, the Lakers acquire the young and dynamic Luka Dončić in return. Dončić is a generational talent who has already proven himself as one of the best players in the league. With Dončić leading the way, the Lakers have a bright future ahead.

Losers:

1. Los Angeles Lakers – Losing LeBron James is a significant loss for the Lakers, as he was the face of the franchise and a key contributor to their success. While acquiring Dončić softens the blow, it will be tough for the Lakers to replace the leadership and production that LeBron brought to the team.

2. Luka Dončić – While Dončić lands in a new and potentially promising situation in Los Angeles, he will have big shoes to fill in replacing LeBron James. The pressure to perform at a high level and live up to expectations will be immense for the young star.

Overall, the Lakers-Mavericks trade is a game-changer for both teams and will have a lasting impact on the NBA landscape. It will be exciting to see how LeBron James and Luka Dončić fare in their new environments and how this trade shapes the future of both franchises.

Tags:

Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Lakers-Mavericks trade, NBA trade winners, NBA trade losers, Lakers trade analysis, Mavericks trade breakdown, LeBron James trade impact, Luka Dončić trade news

#Luka #Dončić #LeBron #James #biggest #winners #losers #LakersMavericks #trade

February 3, 2025

Fantasy Basketball Trade Reaction: Winners and losers of shocking Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis swap

The Dallas Mavericks reportedly made one of the most epic and unfathomable trades in NBA history late Saturday night, dealing Luka Dončić, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick. The three-team deal also includes the Utah Jazz.

The deal, hoops-wise, sent shockwaves through the NBA and fantasy communities. I’ve never seen NBA Twitter in a frenzy like that. Like others, I wondered if Shams got hacked while awaiting confirmation on the deal from other notable insiders like Chris Haynes and Jake Fischer. My initial reaction is probably in the minority, but I like the deal for both sides (assuming Dončić wasn’t going to sign his supermax extension)!

The Lakers said F it; let’s get a generational superstar in purple and gold and figure out the rest later. Dallas brought in Anthony Davis, one of the best two-way big men in the league to fortify its frontcourt with Dereck Lively II (foot) missing the rest of the season. It’s a good “win-now” move for the Mavericks while the Lakers have their next cornerstone, franchise player post-LeBron James.

While I like the deal, it’s still hard to conceptualize the Mavs actually trading away Luka Dončić, a 25-year-old perennial MVP candidate. Here are my thoughts on the blockbuster trade for fantasy purposes — with one caveat.

I didn’t include LeBron or Luka in the winners and losers sections because I’m still trying to imagine how two ball-dominant, stat-stuffing generational talents will coexist. Luka will always be fine, and LeBron has only finished outside of third-round fantasy value once in his 20-year career (and it was his rookie season).

Winners

Kyrie Irving – PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks

Irving was already providing second-round value in 9-cat leagues before the deal and now he will see a massive bump in usage. Dončić is one of 10 players with a usage rate of over 31%. As one of the most efficient guards in the league, Irving and Davis will be a fun and dynamic duo that will be great for fantasy purposes.

Anthony Davis – PF/C, Dallas Mavericks

It’s pretty funny that AD wanted a center, and rather than granting him his wish, the Lakers shipped him to Dallas. The silver lining is that he weirdly got what he wanted (playing alongside Daniel Gafford), so I’d anticipate the Mavs playing through him more than the Lakers previously did. The Kyrie-AD pick-and-roll is going to be tough to stop. Given the volume and opportunity available, we should see a slight bump in assists and possibly scoring without Dončić.

Jaxon Hayes – C, Los Angeles Lakers

Hayes is left as the de facto center for the Lakers. He’s worth picking up and streaming until another domino falls. He’s averaged 10 points with 6 rebounds and a block a game as a starter in his career. He won’t be outstanding, but consistent minutes plus limited depth in the frontcourt is a W for his fantasy value.

Spencer Dinwiddie – PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks

Dinwiddie has been playing a lot of minutes when Dončić has been off the floor, jumping from 19 to 29 minutes per game this season. He’s averaging 13/3/5 this season, and this move preserves his value as a 12-team back-end depth streamer.

Daniel Gafford – C, Dallas Mavericks

Gafford was balling out as the primary center in Dallas with Dereck Lively II (foot) on the shelf, but bringing in one of the most talented bigs in the game will surely impact his value going forward. Gafford’s been a top-five fantasy player over the last two weeks and top 50 over the past month. Even though he’ll likely still start with the Mavs rolling out a Cavs-like frontcourt with AD at power forward and Gafford at center, he can’t sustain the level of production we’ve seen over the past 30 days. He’s still worth holding in all leagues for his blocks, rebounds and FG% since he’s still one of the more effective bigs on a per-minute basis.

Austin Reaves – PG/SG/SF, Los Angeles Lakers

Bringing in Dončić hurts Reaves’ upside as a secondary ball-handler. Reaves was averaging a career-best 6.1 assists per game, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to sustain that amount of usage with Dončić in the fold. Reaves remains the Lakers’ third-best scoring option — it’s just hard to imagine the playmaking not tapering off with Luka and LeBron dominating so many possessions.

Rui Hachimura – SF/PF, Los Angeles Lakers

I’m concerned that Hachimura’s playing time and usage will dwindle even further with Dončić in town. Dorian Finney-Smith has a rapport with Dončić and can also play the small-ball center, so I could see Hachimura getting squeezed for opportunities, much like PJ Washington in Dallas.

Washington played power forward with Dončić and only saw a 17% usage rate this season. When Dončić was off the floor, Washington’s usage rate jumped to 23% with far better production. Before the acquisition of Finney-Smith, Hachimura played 34 minutes per game. This month, it dipped to 27.8 minutes per game. A move like this can’t be good for his fantasy outlook.

In a stunning turn of events, the Dallas Mavericks have traded their young star, Luka Dončić, for Los Angeles Lakers’ powerhouse, Anthony Davis. This blockbuster trade has sent shockwaves through the fantasy basketball world, with fans and analysts alike buzzing about the implications of this deal. So, who are the winners and losers of this shocking swap?

Winners:

1. Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers come out as clear winners in this trade, acquiring a young and dynamic player in Luka Dončić to pair with LeBron James. Dončić’s playmaking abilities and scoring prowess will undoubtedly elevate the Lakers’ offense to new heights, making them a formidable force in the Western Conference.

2. Luka Dončić Fantasy Owners: If you were lucky enough to have Luka Dončić on your fantasy team before this trade, congratulations! Dončić’s numbers are expected to skyrocket playing alongside LeBron James and the Lakers’ star-studded lineup. Expect a surge in points, assists, and rebounds for the young Slovenian superstar.

Losers:

1. Dallas Mavericks: While Anthony Davis is undoubtedly a top-tier talent in the NBA, the Mavericks will sorely miss the production and leadership of Luka Dončić. The team will have to adjust to a new system without their young star, which could lead to a drop in overall performance and fantasy production.

2. Anthony Davis Fantasy Owners: If you were banking on Anthony Davis to carry your fantasy team to victory, this trade may come as a disappointment. Playing alongside a dominant ball-handler like Luka Dončić could have unlocked even more potential for Davis, but now his fantasy value may take a hit with a new team and system to adjust to.

Overall, this trade has shaken up the fantasy basketball landscape, creating new opportunities and challenges for both players and fantasy owners. Only time will tell how this trade will ultimately pan out, but one thing is for certain – the excitement and drama of fantasy basketball are alive and well.

Tags:

Fantasy basketball, trade reaction, Luka Dončić, Anthony Davis, winners, losers, shocking trade, NBA, fantasy sports, basketball analysis, trade impact, player swap, fantasy basketball advice

#Fantasy #Basketball #Trade #Reaction #Winners #losers #shocking #Luka #Dončić #Anthony #Davis #swap

February 2, 2025

WNBA offseason trade grades 2025: Winners and losers

Kevin PeltonJan 31, 2025, 10:10 PM ET
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- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

The 2025 WNBA offseason has been marked by star movement. Four former All-WNBA picks from the past three seasons have already changed teams via trade this offseason, with more potentially to come.

The Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm kicked things off Sunday with a reported three-team trade sending Jewell Loyd to the Aces, Kelsey Plum to the Sparks via sign-and-trade and a package of draft picks headlined by the No. 2 pick in April’s WNBA draft to the Storm.

On Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury made a blockbuster deal to land Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun two seasons after she finished as the runner-up in MVP voting. Three days later, the Mercury paired Thomas with Satou Sabally — both All-WNBA first team picks in 2023 — by striking another sign-and-trade deal involving the Dallas Wings and Indiana Fever.

Which teams got the better of these deals? How do the moves impact the rest of the WNBA and what else will we see in free agency? ESPN breaks down all the implications in our trade grades.

Wings trade Sabally to Phoenix in three-team deal

Mercury get: Satou Sabally, Kalani Brown, Sevgi Uzun
Wings get: NaLyssa Smith, Tyasha Harris, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, No. 8 pick in 2025 draft
Fever get: Sophie Cunningham, No. 19 pick in 2025 draft

Despite saying farewell to Brittney Griner (who agreed to sign with the Atlanta Dream earlier this week) and potentially Diana Taurasi (who is weighing retirement), the Mercury will boast one of the WNBA’s most star-studded rosters in 2025.

Having already landed Alyssa Thomas — the best player to change teams this offseason — Phoenix on Friday agreed to another sign-and-trade that adds Satou Sabally. Add in Kahleah Copper, who was traded to Phoenix last offseason, and the Mercury boast three players who were All-WNBA over the past two years, all of them acquired via trade since the franchise hired Nick U’Ren as general manager and Nate Tibbetts as head coach prior to the 2024 season.

Once Sabally chose Phoenix over the New York Liberty, the other team she met with this offseason, the Mercury made a remarkably favorable deal even by the standards of sign-and-trades involving core players. Phoenix gave up guard Tyasha Harris — acquired alongside Thomas in the deal made earlier in the week — forward Sophie Cunningham, the reserved rights to free agent Mikiah Herbert Harrigan and a second-round pick in exchange for a 26-year-old All-Star (Sabally) plus center Kalani Brown and the reserved rights to guard Sevgi Uzun.

Cunningham was tough to give up for the Mercury, who have seen her develop from a second-round pick into a regular starter over the past three seasons. Cunningham was beloved in the Valley, and her $100,000 contract (via HerHoopStats.com salary data) made her a great value. Still, for Phoenix to land Sabally and Thomas while giving up only a first-round pick (No. 12 overall) is a striking contrast to the Los Angeles Sparks swapping down from No. 2 to No. 9 as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Kelsey Plum earlier in the week.

To some extent, the Mercury probably benefited from their lack of tradeable draft picks. Because their 2026 first-round pick is headed to the Chicago Sky in the Copper deal, the Mercury couldn’t trade another first-rounder outright. A swap of picks in 2027 would have had relatively minimal value to the Wings, though it could have been useful for the Fever.

The Mercury nabbing center Kalani Brown in this deal was also impressive. She has one of the WNBA’s best contracts. Guard Lexie Brown (no relation) is the only other veteran player signed through 2026, when the league’s salary cap is expected to jump thanks to new national TV deals and a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). By that point, Brown’s $132,500 contract could be less than the veteran’s minimum.

Although the stars will be different, Phoenix still figures to have a top-heavy payroll in 2025. Pending possible discounts taken by Sabally and Thomas, the Mercury could have three players at the WNBA’s supermax salary, which would take up nearly half of the league’s hard salary cap. Phoenix will have room to offer another max, potentially to Thomas’ fiancée DeWanna Bonner, but in that scenario, the Mercury will be relying on a number of minimum salaries to fill out the bench without the benefit of remaining draft picks.

The best of Satou Sabally’s 2024 season

Look back at some of Satou Sabally’s best plays of 2024 for the Wings, who have traded her to the Mercury.

Reserved rights to Uzun could be important in that regard. A EuroLeague veteran, Uzun started 19 games as a WNBA rookie at age 26 last season but shot just 42% on 2s and 24% on 3s. If Uzun plays a large role, potentially as Phoenix’s starting point guard depending on how Thomas is used, she’ll have to be more accurate from the field.

Before the Mercury fill out their roster, a lack of depth could make it difficult for them to maximize their star power in 2025. They likely won’t be in the WNBA’s top tier of contenders alongside the Aces, Minnesota Lynx and Liberty. For that to be even a possibility after three consecutive below-.500 finishes is a testament to what Phoenix has done this offseason.

The Mercury are also setting up for 2026 and beyond. As we’ve seen with Nneka Ogwumike re-signing with the Seattle Storm after joining them on a one-year deal in free agency last offseason, there’s a benefit to incumbency even though Sabally and Thomas are likely to be free agents again next year alongside Copper. For now, Phoenix could also use the core designation on Sabally again next offseason, though that’s subject to CBA negotiations.

If you can get Sabally and Thomas without giving up your star player, you do what it takes to make it happen. To their credit, the Mercury pulled that off.

We can think of this as two separate trades by the Wings, one of which I liked a lot more than the other. Getting Cunningham, Harris, the rights to Herbert Harrigan and the No. 19 pick for Brown, Sabally and the rights to Uzun is a weak return for a core trade. Cunningham is significantly more valuable than Natasha Cloud, who went to the Sun with a higher pick (No. 12) for Thomas. Fortunately, Dallas traded Cunningham and the No. 19 pick to Indiana for NaLyssa Smith and the No. 8 pick, making the overall deal far more favorable.

For the Wings, the success of this trade will largely depend on Smith’s development. The No. 2 pick in 2022, Smith finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and averaged 15.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG in Year 2. Smith’s value suffered last season, when her playing time and production dropped alongside Caitlin Clark. Smith averaged just 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds at an age (24 midseason) when she should be improving.

Even before 2024, some of Smith’s value faded when digging beyond her scoring and rebounding averages. Smith isn’t an efficient scorer because she shoots few 3s (14-of-48 last season) and is just a 62% career foul shooter. Of the 107 WNBA players who attempted at least 100 shots in 2024, Smith ranked 28th by shooting 48% from the field but just 49th with a .520 true shooting percentage, which factors in efficiency across all shots.

Smith also hasn’t made a consistent impact at the defensive end. She tripled her steal and block rates last season, going from 0.6 per game combined in 2023 to 1.8, but defensive concerns were the biggest reason Smith logged just 13 total minutes in the Fever’s first-round sweep by the Connecticut Sun.

Besides banking on Smith improving, Dallas might get her some help on the defensive end. Per league sources, the Wings are pursuing Connecticut restricted free agent DiJonai Carrington, Smith’s girlfriend and former teammate at nearby Baylor. Carrington, an All-Defensive first team pick in 2024, would be an enormous help to a Dallas team that finished last in defensive rating.

The Wings might offer the No. 8 pick to the Sun for Carrington, who is likely to move via sign-and-trade because the CBA stipulates that all offer sheets to restricted free agents must be a minimum of two years. Signing a two-year deal would take Carrington out of the running for a bigger raise as an unrestricted free agent in 2026.

This trade also brings Harris back to Dallas, where she was drafted in 2020 and played her first three seasons before being traded to Connecticut. Harris blossomed into a starter last season, making 40% of her 3s and averaging a career-high 10.5 points. On a value contract for $100,000 in 2025, Harris could slot in as a backup point guard if the Wings draft either Paige Bueckers or Olivia Miles with the No. 1 pick but is capable of starting if Dallas doesn’t have a rookie at the position.

It’s easy to see the Fever’s logic. Adding Natasha Howard, who reportedly agreed to sign with Indiana earlier Friday, would have moved Smith to a smaller bench role this season. And Cunningham’s shooting and ability to play either forward spot make her an ideal fit for Indiana. Still, I don’t love the value of this trade.

I dislike the Fever trading away what might be their highest first-round pick in a while. If Clark and Aliyah Boston develop as we expect, Indiana will be picking in the bottom handful of spots of the first round, which will expand to 15 picks starting in 2026 with two expansion franchises joining the WNBA. That the Fever had to throw in the No. 8 pick to get Cunningham suggests the rest of the WNBA didn’t value Smith as a quality young player.

Does adding Natasha Howard make the Indiana Fever title contenders? @RebeccaLobo thinks Caitlin Clark and the Fever are now “one piece away” from entering title conversations pic.twitter.com/s2JoXBxGUZ

— espnW (@espnW) January 31, 2025

On the plus side, Cunningham should work well as a running mate for Clark. A 38% 3-point shooter over the past four seasons, Cunningham ranks 13th among all WNBA players in made 3s over that span. Cunningham could compete with Lexie Hull for a starting spot at small forward and also back up Howard as a power forward in smaller lineups with more floor spacing. Cunningham is more dangerous offensively matching up against power forwards, but gives up size and shot-blocking ability at that spot.

Thanks to the rookie contracts for Boston and Clark, Indiana could sign Howard for the max and still have more than $185,000 in cap space to fill the team’s final roster spot. Depending on interest from free agents, the Fever might take that cap room into the season to have the flexibility to add via trade before the deadline.

Jan. 28: Sun trade Alyssa Thomas to Mercury

Connecticut gets: Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, No. 12 pick in 2025 draft
Phoenix gets: Alyssa Thomas, Tyasha Harris

Phoenix Mercury: A

The 2025 Mercury are going to look much different from what we’ve seen in the Valley.

We’ve seen Phoenix add stars in the past five years, but to complement cornerstone veterans Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi. In 2020, that was Skylar Diggins-Smith, who helped the Mercury reach the Finals in 2021 before her relationship with the team deteriorated. Last year, it was Kahleah Copper, who got Phoenix back to the playoffs after a 9-31 finish in 2023 but not back to .500.

Adding Thomas is different. If Griner (who is taking meetings as an unrestricted free agent for the first time) or Taurasi (whose return for a 21st WNBA season is uncertain) remain on the Mercury, they’ll be tasked to fit in around Thomas rather than the opposite.

At surface level, Thomas is an unlikely star for Phoenix coach Nate Tibbetts’ offense, which is predicated on floor spacing. During Tibbetts’ first season, the Mercury went from attempting 32% of their shots from 3-point range in 2023 to 39%, third highest in the league.

Thomas hasn’t made a 3-pointer since her rookie season and is 2-for-21 beyond the arc in her WNBA career. But Thomas is near the top of the league when it comes to generating 3-pointers for her teammates. Thomas ranked second in 3s from her passes in 2024, behind only Cloud.

Given that Phoenix GM Nick U’Ren came from the Golden State Warriors, the inevitable comparison for how Thomas could play with the Mercury is prime Draymond Green. Like most versatile posts, Thomas has preferred to play alongside a traditional big, spending most of her Connecticut career first next to Jonquel Jones and then Brionna Jones (and occasionally both).

Lineups with Thomas at center and maximum shooting around her — a la the Warriors’ so-called “Death Lineup” that U’Ren famously suggested to head coach Steve Kerr during the 2015 NBA Finals en route to Golden State’s first title — figure to maximize her impact.

We saw that in 2023, when Brionna Jones sustained an Achilles rupture with the Sun off to a 10-3 start, forcing Thomas to play more in the middle. Connecticut went 17-10 the rest of the way without an All-Star post, and Thomas finished second in MVP voting after averaging 15.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists over the final 27 games.

Defensively, the Death Lineup comp also works. The Mercury switched the second-most on-ball screens in the WNBA last season, per Second Spectrum tracking data, but were limited in that regard by Griner’s need to stay anchored near the paint. According to Second Spectrum, Phoenix switched just 7% of picks when Griner defended the screen setter, compared to 23% overall. Lineups with Thomas at center could allow the Mercury to switch as a base defense.

Who else fills out that lineup remains to be seen. Getting Harris back was key to making this trade work financially for Phoenix, which doesn’t have any players remaining on rookie contracts. (The Mercury, who were in win-now mode throughout Taurasi’s later career, last made and kept a first-round pick in 2019.) At $100,000 in the final season of her contract, Harris won’t make appreciably more than the No. 12 pick, and is a proven starting point guard.

The Mercury are still in pursuit of one of the top other remaining uncommitted free agents, Satou Sabally of the Dallas Wings. Like Thomas, Sabally was her team’s core player, meaning Phoenix would have to strike a deal with Dallas if Sabally chooses the Mercury.

With the salaries of Allen and Cloud no longer on the books, Phoenix has enough cap room to give both Sabally and Thomas the supermax and still sign DeWanna Bonner (Thomas’ fiancée who started her career with the Mercury) to a max offer as an unrestricted free agent.

Until Phoenix fills out the roster, it’s tough to say how seriously we should take the Mercury as title contenders. But adding Thomas puts Phoenix back in that conversation for the first time since reaching the 2021 WNBA Finals.

Connecticut Sun: B-

The 2025 Sun are going to look much different from what we’ve seen before. Coaches and teammates have come and gone, with Thomas as the constant as the Sun won at least 60% of their games in all but one season since 2017. (And that one below-.500 season, 2020, saw Thomas drag Connecticut to the semifinals.)

The Sun have done a remarkable job of remaking the roster around Thomas, including shaking off the trade sending former MVP Jonquel Jones to the New York Liberty. But losing Thomas and coach Stephanie White, with both Bonner and Brionna Jones unrestricted free agents, heralds the start of a new era in Connecticut.

In particular, Thomas’ departure suggests facilities issues might finally be catching up with the Sun. It’s probably no coincidence that Thomas wanted out not long after lamenting Connecticut sharing the team’s practice court with a child’s birthday party during the playoffs. Like Las Vegas and Seattle, Phoenix has invested in a dedicated practice facility for the Mercury, upping the ante ahead of a 2026 offseason, when virtually every veteran player of note can be a free agent.

The timing of Thomas’ departure isn’t ideal for the Sun, who gave up swap rights on their 2026 first-round pick in the deal to add Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky last summer. Incidentally, Chicago can swap a first-round pick from Phoenix — acquired in the Copper trade — with Connecticut’s pick, meaning the Sun might not benefit if they fall into the lottery.

With that in mind, the Sun will surely try to compete in 2025. Allen, Cloud and Mabrey give them three capable starters, and Connecticut also has the rights to restricted free agent DiJonai Carrington. Although Brionna Jones is fully unrestricted after playing two years on the core designation, the Sun can offer her more than any team to re-sign via the supermax.

Getting a first-round pick from the Mercury helps Connecticut replace the team’s own first-rounder, which also went to the Sky in the Mabrey deal. Pending the remainder of free agency, this is a solid package that should allow the Sun to remain competitive. Still, without Thomas as the anchor, the odds are against Connecticut continuing its semifinal streak.

Kelsey Plum’s top moments from past season

Check out some of Kelsey Plum’s top moments from her last season with the Aces as she has been traded to the Sparks.

Jan. 26: How the Kelsey Plum-Jewell Loyd blockbuster shakes up three teams — and possibly the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes

Aces get: Jewell Loyd, No. 13 pick in 2025 draft
Sparks get: Kelsey Plum, No. 9 pick in 2025 draft, 2026 second-round pick
Storm get: Li Yueru, No. 2 pick in 2025 draft, 2026 first-round pick

Who won Sunday’s blockbuster WNBA trade involving All-Stars Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum, plus the No. 2 pick of the upcoming draft?

As reported by ESPN, the three-team trade fulfills Loyd’s trade request by sending her to the Las Vegas Aces to replace Plum, who will join the Los Angeles Sparks via sign-and-trade after the Aces used their core designation to take her out of free agency. Meanwhile, the Storm move up from No. 9 to No. 2 in April’s draft — which could facilitate an offer to land the No. 1 pick from the Dallas Wings if top prospect Paige Bueckers of the UConn Huskies prefers not to play in Dallas.

Las Vegas Aces: B+

If Plum wanted out, Loyd was almost certainly the best replacement the Aces could get. There’s great familiarity on both sides. Loyd has teamed with Chelsea Gray, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young for USA Basketball, winning gold last summer, and she has played more playoff games against Las Vegas than any other opponent — averaging 16.7 points in those games, better than Loyd’s overall playoff average of 15.7 points.

Loyd also shares an agent, Jade-Li English, with her new teammates Gray, Wilson and Young. After the ugly breakup between Loyd and the Storm, which culminated in a trade request last month, those ties can help Las Vegas feel confident Loyd will stay with the Aces beyond the one season remaining on her contract.

From a basketball standpoint, Loyd comes to Las Vegas knowing she won’t be the first option on offense. Loyd’s spot in the pecking order in Seattle after the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike was less clear. Although Loyd remained the Storm’s leader in usage rate (29%), Ogwumike was Seattle’s best player, earning All-WNBA second-team honors as Loyd was shut out.

Part of the issue was Loyd’s adjustment in shot selection after having a bigger offensive role in 2023, when Seattle had just one other double-figure scorer (Ezi Magbegor) and she set a single-season record for points that Wilson broke last year. Loyd’s usage rate went down playing alongside Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike, but she took too many off-balance jumpers early in the shot clock.

Per Second Spectrum tracking, Loyd’s 39.8% quantified shot quality — the effective field goal percentage we’d expect from an average player on the same shots based on location, type and distance to nearby defenders — was the lowest among all players with at least 50 attempts. Plum’s quantified shot quality, by contrast, was 47.5%.

We don’t have Second Spectrum data for Loyd’s time playing alongside Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart, who teamed up to win WNBA championships in 2018 and 2020, but Loyd’s efficiency was far better. Loyd shot 38% from 3-point range and had a .541 true shooting percentage from 2017 to 2022, as compared with 27% on 3s and a .497 true shooting percentage in 2024.

By teaming up with another MVP, plus two other Olympians, Loyd is choosing a role similar to the bulk of her Storm career. From 2018 to 2022, Loyd’s usage rate was 26% of Seattle’s plays, in the same ballpark as Plum’s 25% usage last season.

Adding Loyd’s supermax salary ($249,032) will make it more challenging for the Aces to build their roster. Including Plum, Las Vegas’ stars had repeatedly taken below-market extensions, meaning Wilson was previously the Aces’ highest-paid player for 2025 at $200,000, according to salary data from HerHoopStats.com.

Even with the flexibility of non-guaranteed contracts for centers Megan Gustafson and Kiah Stokes, Las Vegas will probably have to choose between adding one more player at max-type money or splitting that salary among multiple veterans. The latter scenario could include bringing back key contributors Alysha Clark and Tiffany Hayes, both unrestricted free agents.

Flipping a 2026 first-round pick that has a decent chance of being lower in a 15-team league than the second-round pick they’re getting back this year (No. 13 overall) helps the Aces financially because that player will be on a modest rookie contract. Effectively, Las Vegas replaced the team’s 2025 first-round pick that the WNBA rescinded due to impermissible benefits.

Of course, we’ve also seen the Aces get discounts before by virtue of free agents’ desire to play for a championship contender in a first-class facility. If Las Vegas can find a way to add Loyd and a top free agent without sacrificing depth, this grade will bump up to an A.

Los Angeles Sparks: B-

Adding Plum is a fascinating move for the Sparks that signals their intent to snap a four-year playoff drought by accelerating their rebuild with an upgrade to their backcourt.

We can probably trace the decision to expedite the rebuild to the trade Los Angeles made on the eve of 2024 free agency, acquiring the No. 4 pick (used on Rickea Jackson) from the Storm along with Kia Nurse in exchange for the Sparks’ 2026 first-round pick. Without that pick, Los Angeles wouldn’t benefit from another season in the lottery.

Giving up the No. 2 pick in this deal is painful for the Sparks, who have gone from dreaming of adding Bueckers to their young talent by winning the lottery to having only the No. 9 pick in this year’s first two rounds. Still, given the difficulty of attracting top talent without a dedicated practice facility, I can understand why they wanted to take advantage of Plum’s interest.

Despite going 8-32 in 2024, Los Angeles already has plenty of frontcourt pieces. Dearica Hamby is coming off an All-Star season during which she finished second in most improved player voting, while Jackson was chosen for the All-Rookie team and No. 2 pick Cameron Brink was on track to doing so before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in June. Veteran Azura Stevens is a fourth capable frontcourt starter.

The Sparks’ backcourt was their undoing. Besides those four players, eight of the other 10 Los Angeles regulars — all but Rae Burrell and restricted free agent Aari McDonald — rated worse than replacement level by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. Los Angeles hasn’t had an All-Star guard since Gray left for the Aces as an unrestricted free agent before the 2021 season.

Enter Plum, who will likely be the best guard to change teams this offseason. An All-Star each of the past three seasons, she peaked as an All-WNBA first-team pick in 2022, when Las Vegas won the first of its back-to-back titles. Presuming the Sparks re-sign Plum after this season, they’ll have a window to win while she’s still playing at an All-Star level and their 2024 first-round picks are approaching their prime years.

To help Plum, Los Angeles should continue upgrading the backcourt. Plum didn’t miss Gray alongside her in the backcourt despite Plum’s shooting slump to start 2024, but her shot quality improved after Gray’s return from a foot injury. Before Gray’s first start on June 21, Plum’s quantified shot quality was 45%, according to Second Spectrum’s metric, putting her in the 33rd percentile leaguewide. The rest of the season, that improved to a league-average 49%.

It’s possible Julie Allemand could be the playmaker the Sparks need. The Belgian point guard was set to join Los Angeles after a February trade but was sidelined because of an ankle injury that required surgery. Allemand averaged 5.8 assists in her only full WNBA campaign as a starter for the Indiana Fever in 2020. Back healthy after missing the Olympics, Allemand is averaging 7.3 points and a team-high 6.1 assists in EuroLeague play this season for Fenerbahce.

Alternatively, Los Angeles could still add another max player to Plum in free agency. Courtney Vandersloot would be a logical target.

Blockbuster WNBA deal: The Seattle Storm are trading six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces in a multi-team move that sends three-time All-Star Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, sources tell me, @ramonashelburne, @alexaphilippou, @kendra__andrews. pic.twitter.com/OlRb37RKIA

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) January 27, 2025

Trading Loyd for a package built around draft picks probably wasn’t Plan A for the Storm, who are expected to re-sign Ogwumike and cored player Gabby Williams to go with Diggins-Smith and Ezi Magbegor as a veteran group hoping to contend.

Swapping Loyd for Plum would have been convenient for Seattle, but Plum evidently wasn’t as interested in returning to the state where she starred at the University of Washington as going back to her native Southern California. The Storm could still trade the No. 2 pick to another team for veteran help — for example, a package built around Ariel Atkins from the rebuilding Washington Mystics — but I think getting that high in the draft changes the equation.

Landing the No. 2 pick suddenly puts Seattle in position to make a run at the No. 1 pick if Bueckers tells the Wings she’d rather return for a sixth year of college eligibility than come to Dallas. Given their year-old practice facility, strong fan support and history with UConn point guards, the Storm would be an attractive landing spot for Bueckers.

Seattle could offer the Wings the No. 2 pick and additional first-rounders — including the Sparks’ 2026 first-rounder, which has upside if Los Angeles misses the playoffs because the WNBA lottery standings reflect the record over the past two seasons combined.

The Storm now have a league-high five first-round picks over the next three years to offer for No. 1. (The Chicago Sky, who pick third, also hold five first-round picks.)

If Bueckers goes No. 1 to Dallas, or another team, Seattle would have its pick of Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Olivia Miles, USC Trojans post Kiki Iriafen and French center Dominique Malonga. None fills an immediate need for the Storm — it’s unclear whether any would start as rookies — but each has the long-term potential to be part of a young core, including Magbegor (25) and Jordan Horston (23) and the pair of 2026 first-rounders.

Replacing Loyd’s supermax salary with the No. 2 pick, set to make $78,331, gives Seattle more cap flexibility. Even if Williams also takes the supermax offer guaranteed by the core designation and Ogwumike signs for the max, the Storm could make another near-max offer to a free agent.

There’s no obvious replacement for Loyd in unrestricted free agency, but Seattle has the flexibility to add a bigger wing such as Clark or Aerial Powers or could try to add another ball handler, with Vandersloot and Natisha Hiedeman as realistic options.

As for Li, she’s an interesting fit on a Storm team with the lithe Magbegor at center. Unrestricted free agent Mercedes Russell, who’s unlikely to return given her friendship with Loyd, matched up against post-up centers the past couple of seasons. Now that role could fall to the 6-foot-7 Li, who received extended minutes last season against the Connecticut Sun (Brionna Jones), Dallas Wings (Teaira McCowan) and Phoenix Mercury (Brittney Griner).

Perhaps best for Seattle, Li is a reserved free agent who is likely to play next season for the league minimum of $66,079. That’s important for a Storm team that will be trying to stretch every dollar filling out its bench.

Barring a trade for Bueckers or a veteran shooting guard, Seattle probably won’t have as strong a roster in 2025 as last season, when the Storm looked like contenders entering the season. But Seattle is in position to win now while also building through the draft for the first time since taking Loyd and Stewart with the No. 1 pick in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

The 2025 WNBA offseason has been full of surprising trades and roster shake-ups. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest moves and grade each team’s performance in these trades.

Winners:

Seattle Storm: The Storm made a splash by acquiring star forward Breanna Stewart from the Las Vegas Aces in exchange for a package of draft picks. This move instantly makes Seattle a title contender and gives them a dynamic duo with Stewart and Sue Bird. Grade: A+

Connecticut Sun: The Sun traded for veteran guard Diana Taurasi, giving them a proven scorer and leader to complement their young core. Taurasi’s experience and clutch play will be invaluable to a team looking to make a deep playoff run. Grade: A

Los Angeles Sparks: The Sparks landed talented forward A’ja Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the New York Liberty. Wilson gives LA a dominant presence in the paint and elevates their championship aspirations. Grade: A-

Losers:

Dallas Wings: The Wings traded away star guard Arike Ogunbowale to the Phoenix Mercury in exchange for a package of role players and draft picks. While they received some assets in return, losing Ogunbowale significantly weakens their roster. Grade: C-

Chicago Sky: The Sky traded away veteran guard Courtney Vandersloot to the Minnesota Lynx for a package of draft picks. While Vandersloot is nearing the end of her career, her leadership and playmaking will be sorely missed in Chicago. Grade: D+

Overall, the 2025 WNBA offseason saw some teams make bold moves to improve their rosters, while others may have taken a step back. It will be interesting to see how these trades play out once the season begins.

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#WNBA #offseason #trade #grades #Winners #losers

February 2, 2025

WNBA offseason trade grades 2025: Winners and losers

Kevin PeltonJan 31, 2025, 10:10 PM ET
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- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

The 2025 WNBA offseason has been marked by star movement. Four former All-WNBA picks from the past three seasons have already changed teams via trade this offseason, with more potentially to come.

The Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm kicked things off Sunday with a reported three-team trade sending Jewell Loyd to the Aces, Kelsey Plum to the Sparks via sign-and-trade and a package of draft picks headlined by the No. 2 pick in April’s WNBA draft to the Storm.

On Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury made a blockbuster deal to land Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun two seasons after she finished as the runner-up in MVP voting. Three days later, the Mercury paired Thomas with Satou Sabally — both All-WNBA first team picks in 2023 — by striking another sign-and-trade deal involving the Dallas Wings and Indiana Fever.

Which teams got the better of these deals? How do the moves impact the rest of the WNBA and what else will we see in free agency? ESPN breaks down all the implications in our trade grades.

Wings trade Sabally to Phoenix in three-team deal

Mercury get: Satou Sabally, Kalani Brown, Sevgi Uzun
Wings get: NaLyssa Smith, Tyasha Harris, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, No. 8 pick in 2025 draft
Fever get: Sophie Cunningham, No. 19 pick in 2025 draft

Despite saying farewell to Brittney Griner (who agreed to sign with the Atlanta Dream earlier this week) and potentially Diana Taurasi (who is weighing retirement), the Mercury will boast one of the WNBA’s most star-studded rosters in 2025.

Having already landed Alyssa Thomas — the best player to change teams this offseason — Phoenix on Friday agreed to another sign-and-trade that adds Satou Sabally. Add in Kahleah Copper, who was traded to Phoenix last offseason, and the Mercury boast three players who were All-WNBA over the past two years, all of them acquired via trade since the franchise hired Nick U’Ren as general manager and Nate Tibbetts as head coach prior to the 2024 season.

Once Sabally chose Phoenix over the New York Liberty, the other team she met with this offseason, the Mercury made a remarkably favorable deal even by the standards of sign-and-trades involving core players. Phoenix gave up guard Tyasha Harris — acquired alongside Thomas in the deal made earlier in the week — forward Sophie Cunningham, the reserved rights to free agent Mikiah Herbert Harrigan and a second-round pick in exchange for a 26-year-old All-Star (Sabally) plus center Kalani Brown and the reserved rights to guard Sevgi Uzun.

Cunningham was tough to give up for the Mercury, who have seen her develop from a second-round pick into a regular starter over the past three seasons. Cunningham was beloved in the Valley, and her $100,000 contract (via HerHoopStats.com salary data) made her a great value. Still, for Phoenix to land Sabally and Thomas while giving up only a first-round pick (No. 12 overall) is a striking contrast to the Los Angeles Sparks swapping down from No. 2 to No. 9 as part of their sign-and-trade deal for Kelsey Plum earlier in the week.

To some extent, the Mercury probably benefited from their lack of tradeable draft picks. Because their 2026 first-round pick is headed to the Chicago Sky in the Copper deal, the Mercury couldn’t trade another first-rounder outright. A swap of picks in 2027 would have had relatively minimal value to the Wings, though it could have been useful for the Fever.

The Mercury nabbing center Kalani Brown in this deal was also impressive. She has one of the WNBA’s best contracts. Guard Lexie Brown (no relation) is the only other veteran player signed through 2026, when the league’s salary cap is expected to jump thanks to new national TV deals and a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). By that point, Brown’s $132,500 contract could be less than the veteran’s minimum.

Although the stars will be different, Phoenix still figures to have a top-heavy payroll in 2025. Pending possible discounts taken by Sabally and Thomas, the Mercury could have three players at the WNBA’s supermax salary, which would take up nearly half of the league’s hard salary cap. Phoenix will have room to offer another max, potentially to Thomas’ fiancée DeWanna Bonner, but in that scenario, the Mercury will be relying on a number of minimum salaries to fill out the bench without the benefit of remaining draft picks.