Tag: MARYLAND

How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Thursday, 1/2/25

Tip-Off Time: 6:30 pm PT

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +8

Maryland Terrapins 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 11-2 (1-1)

Points For per Game: 87.2 ppg (10th)

Points Against per Game: 61.1 ppg (10th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.0 (39th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 3.7 (8th)

Strength of Schedule: 347th

Maryland Key Players:

G- Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Jr. 6’1, 186: 13.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 50.8% FG, 42.9% 3pt, 95.2% FT

Gillespie came over from Belmont where he was their star point guard and while his scoring totals are down due to fewer shot attempts, he is averaging more assists and half as many turnovers. He does everything you want from your point guard shooting 60%+ on 2’s, 40%+ on 3’s, 95%+ on FTs and a nearly 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Stud.

G- Rodney Rice, So. 6’4, 198: 11.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 43.2% FG, 35.1% 3pt, 82.6% FT

It has been a breakout season for Rice who missed last season after transferring from a bench role at Virginia Tech but has become an instant starter and put up good efficiency numbers as a 4th/5th option. He normally takes 6+ three-point attempts per game and has been making 2-3 of them for the most part. The rebounding and steals numbers aren’t great but he also doesn’t turn it over to compensate.

G- Selton Miguel, Sr. 6’4, 217: 12.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 48.0% FG, 41.5% 3pt, 80.0% FT

Last year Miguel averaged nearly 15 points per game at South Florida but has been thriving in a less demanding role with Maryland. His three-point progression has been something to watch going from 21% to 33% to 39% to 42% in his career. He and Rice have been largely interchangeable so far and are comfortable being in a supporting position knocking down open shots.

F- Julian Reese, So. 6’9, 252: 12.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 59.4% FG, 76.2% FT

Reese was basically the Big Ten’s version of Great Osobor last year when he averaged a nearly double-double on 13.7 points per game. He’s ostensibly a 6’9 center with a range that doesn’t extend outside the paint and is a solid shot blocker but not an amazing one. This year his rebounding has gone to another level and he’s 10th in the country in offensive rebound rate while shooting 60% from the field.

C- Derik Queen, Fr. 6’10, 246: 16.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.0 bpg, 59.2% FG, 12.5% 3pt, 79.0% FT

The reason that Maryland has ascended to looking like a Big Ten title contender is the addition of Queen who has been in the conversation for best Freshman in the country despite an absolutely loaded freshman class. Queen is basically just Isaiah Stewart if he settled for three-pointers more often but was a legitimately good passer, averaging 2.2 assists per game. Except Queen to dominate in the paint all night.

The Outlook

You could certainly argue that Maryland is maybe a tad overrated despite essentially ranking 26th in the AP Poll (they were 6 points behind #25 Baylor 139 to 133). Maryland is 10th in both scoring offense and defense but have gone up against one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’re just 2-2 against teams ranked 109th or better at KenPom and 3 of those games were decided by 7 or fewer points. That doesn’t scream Big Ten title contender.

But that 4th game was a 34-point victory over a good Ohio State team and they have bludgeoned every other team they’ve played to death. Maryland is 9-0 with all of the wins coming by 15+ points against teams ranked 55th or worse at KenPom.

A look at the KenPom scouting report shows a team with basically no flaws. They rank in the top-75 nationally in almost every major statistical category with the only exceptions being free throw rate and free throw percentage. For a team with two dominant big men you’d expect them to draw more fouls but other than that this team has no weaknesses.

If there was one game this season the Huskies wanted to have Franck Kepnang healthy and available, it was this one to counter the front line of Queen and Reese. Either would be among the top-5 centers in the conference and they play for the same team often at the same time. Expect Washington to go with a starting lineup of Harris, Breidenbach, and Osobor to counter the size of their front line. Also maybe expect to see some KC Ibekwe emergency minutes due to foul trouble inside.

Even if you happen to catch Maryland on a day when they’re missing shots, you’re probably not going to have a good chance. Why? They don’t lose the possessions battle. Maryland ranks top-20 in turnover rate on both offense and defense and are top-55 in rebounding rates on both sides of the ball. If they miss a shot, they’ll probably get the rebound. They’re not going to turn it over. They’re not going to get their shots blocked (1st in the country at 4.1%). They’re going to play fast and beat you in transition.

Is there any good news?

Washington did get back Wilhelm Breidenbach after losing without him against Seattle U so their front line is slightly better equipped to face this Maryland team. Obviously though it would help a lot to have Kepnang healthy. The Huskies are 6-0 when they shoot just 32% from the 3-point line. Washington has had 4 games where they make at least 10 threes in a game and have scored at least 73 points in all of them. That’s the minimum they’ll need to stay in it against Maryland but it is possible even if not likely.

It feels like this is the start to Big Ten play for the Huskies since their earlier two conference games were against former Pac-12 opponents with UCLA and USC. But this is what life is going to be like in the league this year. There are almost no easy games. Only one other team besides Washington (Minnesota) ranks outside the top-80 at Torvik. Every game is against at least an NIT-quality squad and the Huskies will have to find a way to win the occasional game like this one to not be the league’s doormat this season. I’m not optimistic that tonight is the night they get it done.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 68, Maryland Terrapins- 81