Tag: Matchday

• Jake’s Predictions: Staked 294.75pts | Returned 324.06pts | P/L +29.31pts | ROI 10%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 15:00

1pt Tyler Adams to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 33/10 (BetVictor)

0.5pt Tyler Adams and Gibbs-White to be carded in Bournemouth vs Forest at 17/1 (BetVictor)

1pt Jesper Lindstrum 3+ tackles in Brighton vs Everton at 23/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

2pts Alexander Isak to score anytime at 10/11 in Southampton vs Newcastle at 10/11 (bet365)

1.5pts Kyle Walker-Peters 1+ total shot in Southampton vs Newcastle at 13/10 (Unibet)

2pts Gabriel Magalhaes 1+ headed shot in Wolves vs Arsenal at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime in Wolves vs Arsenal at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Saturday 17:30

1.5pts Chelsea to score 2+ goals vs Man City at 11/10 (Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Cole Palmer to score anytime in Chelsea vs Man City at 7/4 (bet365, Boylesports)

Sunday

1pt Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in C Palace vs Brentford (14:00) at 19/10 (Unibet)

1pt Leicester to score first vs Spurs (14:00) at 2/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Vladamir Coufal to win 2+ fouls in Aston Villa vs West Ham (16:30) at 10/3 (Betfair)

2pts Alex Iwobi 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs Man Utd (19:00) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Another solid weekend for the column last time out, mainly thanks to Ryan Christie getting carded (5/1), but although I feel like I say this every week it really could have been so much better.

Somehow Lewis Cook avoided a card in the same game despite making three fouls including one cynical one on Anthony Gordon. Cheers ref. Aston Villa got a result at Arsenal but Emi Martinez avoided a card despite taking an age over every goal kick. Cheers ref. And Nikola Milenkovic had a goal dubiously ruled out in Forest’s win over Southampton. Cheers VAR.

Anyhow, we move onto this weekend, with plenty of strong fancies, including a few old favourites.

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest

What a cracking game this should be. Two of the success stories of the season so far, two sides pushing for Europe and two sides bang in form. Bournemouth are unbeaten in 10 Premier League games, winning six of those, while Forest have won seven of their last eight.

You could make a case for any of the three results here, so I’ll swerve the 1X2, and given the appointment of referee Craig Pawson (4.62 cards per game in 24/25 Premier League), I’ll focus my attentions on cards.

While last week’s hero Ryan Christie is again an appealing price to be booked, this game should be played in a completely different manner. At St James’ Park it was an open contest and something of a ‘press-fest’ with both teams going for the jugular at every opportunity. This should resemble more of an attack vs defence, with Forest content to sit in and frustrate, which could lead to limited opportunities for Christie to snap into tackles.

Instead, with Forest sure to play on the counter, it could be TYLER ADAMS who is called into action more, and who has more opportunity TO BE CARDED as he is tasked with stopping transitions.

He’s 7/2 to be booked here and as well as putting fires out, he’ll have work to do containing Morgan Gibbs-White. The Englishman has started 18 league games this season and the deepest opposing midfielder has been carded in 15 of them – Flynn Downes being the latest last weekend.

Add in the fact that Adams has averaged 2.43 fouls per 90 minutes and has four cards to his name in limited minutes (0.53 per 90), and 7/2 looks a whopping price.

Speaking of GIBBS-WHITE, at 16/5 I can’t resist putting him up TO BE CARDED too. He has after all been carded in six times this season, collecting four yellows in his last 10 league outings.

He gives as good as he gets, and gets booked every which way you can think of. Dissent – check (vs Liverpool, City), stopping a counter attack by holding – check (vs Brentford, Brighton), traditional foul – check (vs Ipswich, Wolves).

Gibbs-White loves the battle, winning 1.51 fouls per 90 and committing 1.63 fouls per 90 this season, so playing the ADAMS AND GIBBS-WHITE CARD DOUBLE is worth a small bet.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Brighton vs Everton

The theory in Brighton games is to back the opposing right back in tackles markets. However, watching David Moyes’ side against Spurs has me believing that it’s Everton right winger JESPER LINDSTRUM we should target this weekend.

He was touch-tight to his right back Jake O’Brien in that match, making five tackles to O’Brien’s none, making the 23/10 available for 3+ TACKLES appeal on the south coast.

Generally, opposing right backs against Brighton have averaged 3.6 tackles per game this season largely down to Kaoru Mitoma, hitting 3+ in 16 of the 20 games the Japanese winger has started.

But I suspect O’Brien will operate more as a right centre-back here, with Lindstrum almost a wing-back, so I’ll happily take the chance the latter is the one drawn into the duels.

So far this season the Dane is averaging 3.43 tackles per 90, so there is every chance he hits the required line even if he isn’t pinned back as I expect him to be.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Liverpool vs Ipswich

Finding a bet in a game where a team is 1/12 is always tough. Every market is short for the favourites, while the underdogs have shown little to suggest they can do much of anything at Anfield.

I’ll sit this one out from a betting perspective, though I do expect a comfortable home win for the Reds.

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Southampton vs Newcastle

Newcastle should win this game comfortably, quite simply because Southampton are so bad. I’m immediately drawn to ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME at an incredibly backable 10/11 with bet365 against the league’s worst side. He’s a best price 4/6 elsewhere.

The case is pretty simple really. Newcastle will create an abundance of chances against the worst defensive team in the league, a side who have allowed nearly 3.0 xGA per game at St. Mary’s this season – their poor fans.

Isak will be on the end of plenty of those opportunities, averaging 0.69 xG per 90, and will surely finish one of them, just as he has in eight of his last nine league games. His blank against Bournemouth, and Newcastle’s poor performance in that game, is easily forgiven, with that being the Magpies 10th game in 36 days. A busy schedule certainly caught up with them.

With a week off, they and Isak will be fresh and champing at the bit to put the defeat to the Cherries in the rearview mirror.

I’ll also have a bet on KYLE WALKER-PETERS 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 13/10, with the same bet 4/9 in places. Anything around the even-money mark looks good.

KWP has been playing at left-wing, a position that sees him cut inside onto his right foot, regularly resulting in a shot on goal.

That has been the case in his last three home matches, despite two of them being blowouts. In 5-0 defeats to Tottenham and Brentford he fired one and three shots, and he took two shots in the narrow loss to West Ham.

Despite being cut adrift at the bottom, the hosts will have a go here, and Walker-Peters looks the best way into a somewhat ‘pro-Southampton’ bet.

Score prediction: Southampton 0-4 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Wolves vs Arsenal

Wolves are the worst team in the league by a long way when it comes to defending set-pieces. Arsenal are the best team at attacking them by a long way, too.

You know where I’m going with this don’t you?

GABRIEL MAGALHAES is priced at 7/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME and that’ll do me nicely.

Wolves have conceded 19 goals from set-pieces this season, conceding 2.57 xGA and three goals from dead-ball situations in their last four outings. Tosin was the latest centre-back to profit after netting on Monday, though had Noni Madueke not stolen Nathanial Chalobah’s goal it would’ve two in the same game.

We were on Gabriel in the North London derby where I think we all thought he’d scored, only for it to be ruled an own goal, but even without that he has five goals to his name this season, a goals per 90 of 0.26 and an xG per 90 of 0.17 – both league-leading among centre-backs.

He warmed up nicely for this too with a three-shot, 0.41 xG performance in the first 30 minutes of Arsenal’s Champions League game with Dinamo Zagreb. Had he scored there, we would likely be looking at a price closer to 5/1, so the 7/1 is incredibly generous against such a poor team at defending set-pieces.

If you don’t want to chance him at a big price to score, can I perhaps tempt you with GABRIEL 1+ HEADED SHOT at 10/11?

Given the opponent, this price looks massive for the Brazilian to just meet a corner or free-kick. Of his 18 shots this season, 14 have come via his noggin, with the bet landing in 12 of his 20 starts, including in the reverse.

Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Manchester City vs Chelsea

I feel like everyone was getting carried away with the ‘City are back rhetoric’ following a run of four wins and a draw, but it seemed people had overlooked how soft of a schedule they had faced. Leicester, West Ham pre-Potter, Brentford, Salford and Ipswich.

So, it was no surprise to see them completely undone by an elite team in the Champions League, losing 4-2 to PSG, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Chelsea give them the same treatment. City’s issues remain the same, with that easy schedule masking them, but it’s still clear that if you take the game to Pep Guardiola’s side, they are incredibly vulnerable.

Enzo Maresca, Pep’s former assistant, would love nothing more than to get one over on his old mentor in his own backyard, and with just two points between the teams in the table, it could be a huge game with big ramifications on a top four finish.

The Blues have been excellent travellers this season, sitting third for points and third for xG process on the road, and I think recent struggles against Everton, Ipswich and Palace can be forgiven, with all three sides sitting deep and frustrating them. City won’t take that approach.

With City’s attack looking decent and Chelsea’s backline still somewhat questionable, I’ll swerve a bet on an away win, but instead I’ll back CHELSEA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 11/10.

Taking this avenue means we need not worry about what City do in attack, and should they win 3-2 we’ll still have a nice winner. Prior to City’s softer schedule, Pep’s side had conceded two or more goals in 11 of 12 in all competitions, while Brentford netted twice and PSG put four past the hapless City defence in midweek.

Across the last 12 league games too, the reigning champions have conceded a huge 1.75 xGA per game, highlighting just how leaky they have been over a long period of time.

With Chelsea fancied to back a couple of goals, the 7/4 about COLE PALMER SCORING ANYTIME looks large.

Palmer has scored 14 times in the league this season, with that figure perhaps going under the radar with many, netting in six of his last 10 league games. His xG per 90 average of 0.56 is extremely impressive and suggests he will be on the end of at least a couple good chances against his former team on Saturday.

Add in the fact that he is on penalties duty as well, and the price on offer looks way too big in what could be a really high-scoring contest.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Crystal Palace vs Brentford

Crystal Palace are cooking at the moment. They’ve really found themselves after a slow start and look set for another fast finish to the season. The Eagles welcome Brentford having suffered just one defeat in 11 league games, which came at the hands of Arsenal, winning three of their last four.

The hosts looks a nice price for the win here, but I think the 19/10 available for JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA TO SCORE ANYTIME is the best bet of the game.

Brentford have struggled on the road this season, losing seven of 10, with their sole win coming at bottom side Southampton. Only the three promoted teams have allowed more xGA per game away from home than the Bees (1.85), so Oliver Glasner’s men will create chances in this one.

Mateta is averaging 0.52 xG per 90 since March last year, so should see at least two good scoring chances, and as Tom Carnduff highlighted in his Notebook column, Mateta is an extremely streaky striker.

The Frenchman scored in eight of his final 11 league games of last season – netting 12 goals in total – and heads into this game having scored in three straight matches.

After a slow start to the season, likely down to a combination of his participation at the 2024 Olympics and the changes in the Palace team with Michael Olise leaving, expect him to finish fast now he’s back up to speed and has a solid set-up behind him.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Tottenham vs Leicester

I have absolutely no trust in either of these two teams, and why would anyone? Tottenham have won just one of their last 10 league games, that coming against basement dwellers Southampton, and have failed to win any of their last six home league games. Leicester have lost seven straight in the top flight.

Spurs got an important win in the Europa League in midweek, putting them back in the top eight, and finishing in the automatic qualifying spots should be of paramount importance given their thin squad and numerous injuries. The last thing they need is an extra two-legged knockout tie in an already hectic schedule.

This game is sandwiched between European dates, which could be problematic, as the Carabao Cup and Europa League offer the best chance of qualifying for Europe next season. We shouldn’t be surprised to see them rest and rotate ahead of those matches moving forward, even if options are in short supply.

Already this season we have seen Ange Postecoglou’s side struggle with the midweek-weekend schedule. They have played 13 games the weekend after a midweek match, be it Carabao Cup, Premier League or Europe, and have won just four, losing six times. Three of those wins came in the first five of those matches when healthier as a squad, meaning it’s one win in the last eight such games (at Southampton).

Interestingly, Ipswich took advantage at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after a midweek European game, while Wolves avoided defeat following a midweek Premier League match – two sides fighting for survival. So, don’t be surprised if the Foxes spring a surprise here.

I’m not going to be backing the visitors to win, with Spurs’ firepower more than capable of scoring three or four against this Leicester backline, but I think there is value in backing LEICESTER TO SCORE FIRST at 2/1.

Perhaps surprisingly, backing the visitors to score first at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this league season would have been a very profitable exercise, with the angle winning seven times in 11 home matches.

All of Wolves, Ipswich, West Ham and Brentford opened the scoring when travelling to North London, so let’s hope Spurs are once again jaded after a Thursday away game and start slowly.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Aston Villa vs West Ham

Another tough game to call. Villa’s record in matches following a midweek game from any competition reads W2 D4 L10, with the two victories coming against Wolves and Southampton early in the season. That’s enough for me to swerve the hosts at 4/7.

However, I still can’t bring myself to back West Ham, especially with them still having no out-and-out goalscorer, and with their attack just nowhere near good enough. In Graham Potter’s three games they have generated an average of just 0.67 xGA per game, being held at arm’s length by all over Aston Villa (FA Cup), Fulham and Crystal Palace, only beating the Cottagers due to being handed two goals.

One bet has caught the eye though, and it is a little bit rogue. With Jean-Clair Todibo injured and Konstantinos Mavropanos suspended, West Ham are light at right centre-back, meaning we could see VLADAMIR COUFAL play in that role behind Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and it’s his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS that has drawn me in.

It’s 10/3 with Betfair, and anyone who watched the FA Cup meeting between these two will get my train of thinking. Coufal was a second-half substitute in that game, with Potter starting in a 4-2-3-1 formation but being forced to switch to a back five after Crysencio Summerville went off injured, and Coufal caught the eye for his foul-winning ability.

With West Ham playing out from the back in a patient manner under Potter, and with the Hammers looking to create overloads and switch the ball early, the Czechia international saw plenty of the ball as the over- or under-lapping centre-back and was hacked down three times in 45 minutes.

If he does start, his link-up with Aaron Wan-Bissaka will be a key area for West Ham to play out, and with Villa happy to make soft fouls, there’s every chance Coufal again racks up a decent foul tally. His spot in the team isn’t guaranteed, so if he is on the bench, please cash this bet out.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Fulham vs Manchester United

Manchester United are a big price to win at Craven Cottage, but I will not be drawn in. The Red Devils snatched a late win against Rangers in midweek, and their away record in the league is extremely poor. They’ve won just two of 10, one of those being Southampton and the other a smash-and-grab Manchester derby success.

Fulham have lost just two of 11 home games but their problem has been winning at Craven Cottage, which they’ve managed just four times. I’ll happily swerve the 1X2 markets then, even if I do think the hosts are the most likely winners, with the draw a definite runner.

Instead, the even-money available for ALEX IWOBI 1+ SHOT ON TARGET looks on the large side, with the Nigerian posting a very solid shot on target record at home when playing out wide. The same bet is as short as 2/5 in places and upwards of 1/2 strikes me as value.

He’s landed this bet in six of the nine home games he has played as a winger, firing 12 in total across that sample at an average of 1.43 per 90.

Since Ruben Amorim took over at Manchester United, the Red Devils have conceded a low average of 10.8 shots per 90 but, their shot on target faced average is a whopping 4.1. That means 38% of all shots they’ve faced have either gone in or forced Andre Onana into a save.

Away from home they have faced 4.8 shots on target per game in Amorim’s time in charge, and a strong Fulham team should hit that target at least on Sunday evening, so let’s hope Iwobi fires one of them.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 33

• Liverpool 3-0 Ipswich
• Wolves 0-2 Arsenal
• Southampton 0-4 Newcastle
• Manchester City 2-3 Chelsea
• Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford
• Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham

Saturday’s tips – Odds correct at 1015 GMT (24/01/25)

Sunday’s 14:00 tips – Odds correct at 1350 (24/01/25)

Sunday’s 16:30 and 19:00 tips – Odds correct at 1555 (24/01/25)

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• Jake’s Predictions: Staked 283.25pts | Returned 309.58pts | P/L +26.33pts | ROI 9%

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Jordan Pickford to be carded in Everton vs Spurs (14:00) at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Brighton to win Draw no Bet vs Man Utd (14:00) at 29/20 (Unibet)

1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in N Forest vs Southampton (14:00) at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Unibet)

0.5pt Nikola Milenkovic to score first in N Forest vs Southampton (14:00) at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Savinho 1+ shot on target and 2+ total shots in Ipswich vs Man City (16:30) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

It was a profitable midweek for us but it could, and arguably should, have been a big one.

Somehow Alexis Mac Allister avoided a card despite committing four fouls at Forest, with a couple being egregious, denying us the 3/1 single and the 15/1 double.

Still, profit is profit, and hopefully we’ll be able to follow it up this weekend with another weekend in the green.

Everton vs Tottenham

Tottenham are in a real rut. They look tired; struggling to deal with a crazy schedule, hurt even more by key injuries.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have won one of their last nine league games, with that sole victory coming at bottom side Southampton. Away from home they have won just two of their last 10 in all competitions, losing six.

So, I won’t be making a pro-Spurs bet, especially with their attacking output dropping of late, but at the same time, I can’t really make a pro-Everton play either.

The Toffees are one of the worst attacking teams in the league according to expected goals, and only Southampton (13) have scored fewer than the have (15).

Defensively, Everton have been solid at Goodison Park this season, conceding just five times in their last eight in the league, and with David Moyes very much in the same tactical camp as Sean Dyche, we should expect a continued defence-first approach.

So, with goals at a premium, the no goalscorer looks a real runner at 14/1, but instead, if things get tight we could well see JORDAN PICKFORD up to his usual antics resulting in him TO BE CARDED.

The England stopper has been carded five times this season but has collected four in his last six league games, all coming against either big teams or sides flying high.

He’s been booked three times for dissent and twice for time wasting, so at 13/2, Pickford could be a real runner in what should be a tight game of huge importance for both sides.

Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Manchester United vs Brighton

Manchester United were extremely poor in midweek against the worst team in the top flight. Amad Diallo spared their blushes with a late hat-trick, but it was another performance that highlighted just how much work is needed to get the Red Devils climbing the table.

Their price of 11/10 does not appeal whatsoever, and given BRIGHTON‘s record against the best teams, I’ll more than happily back the visitors in the DRAW NO BET market.

We’ll take the them with that added security of money back if there is a draw, given the Seagulls have drawn the most games in the entire league (10).

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have lost only four times in 21, all to teams I would argue are better than United (Liverpool, Chelsea, Fulham, Crystal Palace).

Brighton have won four and drawn three of their nine matches against last season’s top eight, highlighting how games against the so called big sides suit them, and it really wouldn’t be a surprise were they to be the sixth side to beat United at Old Trafford this season.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton

One of Southampton’s many weaknesses just happens to be a huge strength of Nottingham Forest – set-pieces.

Saints have conceded the most shots (102) and most xG (11.68) of any team in the league from dead-ball situations, conceding 11 times, while Forest have scored seven times from such scenarios and have racked up the third most xG from dead-ball situations.

So, we’ll back NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 25/1 and 8/1 respectively. I was going to include Murillo as well but Joe Townsend beat me to it…

Milenkovic is the second most dangerous centre-back from set-pieces in the entire league, behind only Gabriel, averaging 0.14 xG per 90 this season.

The Serb has scored twice this season already, netting the first of the game with one of those strikes, and caused Southampton some major issues in the reverse fixture, taking three shots equating to 0.98 xG.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Ipswich vs Manchester City

Manchester City are still shaky defensively, that is for certain, but going forward they are starting to find their groove again. Things are beginning to click.

SAVINHO has had a part to play in that. His performances whenever he has started have been a rare shining light in a tough season for the champions, and his consistency with shots and shots on target looks an avenue we can exploit here.

In his last 11 league starts for City, the Brazilian has fired 36 shots at an average of 3.56 per 90, hitting the target 14 times at an average of 1.38.

So, the 10/11 on offer for SAVINHO 1+ SHOT ON TARGET AND 2+ TOTAL SHOTS makes great appeal against an Ipswich side who will be happy to sit back and soak up pressure and shots on Sunday. The same bet is as short as 8/13 with most firms.

He seems to be growing in confidence and Pep Guardiola is sticking with him, picking him in the starting XI the last four league games.

This bet would have won in 10 of his 11 starts, and the Tractor Boys have have conceded the fifth most shots (15 per game) and shots on target (5.2) in the league this season.

Score prediction: Ipswich 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Already advised

Saturday 12:30 – Newcastle vs Bournemouth

1pt Ryan Christie to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Lewis Cook to be carded at 4/1 (bet365, Boylesports)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Yoane Wissa to score anytime in Brentford vs Liverpool at 3/1 (bet365)

2pts Fulham to beat Leicester at 19/20 (William Hill)

Saturday 17:30 – Arsenal vs Aston Villa

1pt Aston Villa or draw (double chance) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Aston Villa or draw (double chance) and Emi Martinez to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Fouls and cards should be on the agenda here, with the league’s most foul-heavy team (Bournemouth – 13.4 per game) taking on one of the league’s best foul-drawing teams (Newcastle – 12.8 per game).

Throw in the mix that we have two good sides pushing for European football with less than a handful of points between them, and we could be in for a cracking contest.

The referee here is Stuart Attwell, an OK appointment for card backers. He’s averaged 3.73 cards per game in the top flight this season, but he does have the capability to flash them like confetti, and these two teams have been consistent for games seeing cards (5.89 in Newcastle’s home games and 5.27 in Bournemouth’s away).

I’m going to revisit my Newcastle midfield theory and back RYAN CHRISTIE TO BE CARDED at a huge 5/1.

With Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton, Newcastle have some of the best foul drawers in the league, and Christie is a high-pressing midfielder who is averaging 1.99 fouls per 90. He’s been booked seven times this season, including in midweek at Chelsea, so prices around 9/2 and 5/1 for another against this crew look massive.

If James Hill is out and Adam Smith isn’t fit enough to start at right back, LEWIS COOK could be in that position which spells trouble for the Bournemouth captain, making his price of 4/1 TO BE CARDED extremely generous.

Even if he was plays in midfield, this would be a bet, with Cook averaging 2.53 tackles and 1.83 fouls per 90, being carded four times this term.

Should he be in at right back he’ll be up against Anthony Gordon who’s been fouled 2.48 times per 90 this season, with the England winger getting his opposing number booked in four his last seven league games.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Brentford vs Liverpool

Liverpool are wobbling in terms of results. It’s three games without a win against Premier League sides, though only once against Tottenham in the Carabao Cup were they poor. The Reds created enough against both Manchester United and Nottingham Forest to warrant wins.

That doesn’t mean I’m rushing to get them onside here, especially with Brentford a very awkward opponent at home. Having said that, they have lost both matches when hosting the current top three, with Liverpool the final member of that trio to visit the Gtech.

I do expect Arne Slot’s men to get back on the winning trail here, as the Bees simply concede too many chances to back them to avoid defeat, but I think Thomas Frank’s men will get on the scoresheet, and that has me wanting to back YOANE WISSA TO SCORE ANYTIME again.

He did the business for us in midweek against Manchester City when priced at 13/5, but this weekend we can back him at an even bigger 3/1.

Wissa’s xG per 90 is up to 0.64 after he scored his 11th goal of the season and was on the end of five chances equating to 1.63 xG, thriving on the counter attack, which is likely to be the main avenue of success for the Bees.

In total this bet has won in seven of Wissa’s nine home appearances this season, and if we add in the fact that Liverpool have struggled away from home of late, conceding 15 goals in their last nine matches in the UK, and it’s worth chancing him for the second time this week.

Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Leicester vs Fulham

Leicester are a bad team and that hasn’t changed since the arrival of Ruud van Nistelrooy. The Foxes have lost six straight games in the league, conceding 14 times in the process, with their latest defeat at home to Crystal Palace a real performance of desperation.

This weekend they welcome a FULHAM side who I rate more higher than the Eagles, yet the Cottagers are only a marginally shorter price TO WIN the game, so I’ll happily double down and back against Leicester for the second time this week.

Marco Silva’s men were beaten in midweek but that was just their third away loss of the season and was of their own making. They gifted West Ham two goals from sloppy play at the back, but otherwise conceded just two shots in the game.

I’m happy to overlook that as a one-off, and will instead focus on the excellent data the Cottagers have put up this season, with them one of only seven teams to boast a positive xG process when travelling.

Having already won at Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea, Fulham can add to Leicester’s misery on Saturday.

Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

West Ham vs Crystal Palace

West Ham were fortunate in midweek to beat Fulham, again looking defensively vulnerable just as they did in the FA Cup against Aston Villa, though this time they were gifted goals by their visitors.

The result looks to be a smokescreen, masking what was a poor performance that saw them create just two chances of their own volition, so I was extremely tempted to back Crystal Palace at even money in the draw no bet market.

As it is, I’m going to leave this game alone and just take a further watching brief of Potter’s Hammers. As a side note, Lucas Paqueta started as the main striker on Tuesday so his prices for a shot on target (5/4 – Unibet) and to score anytime (18/5 – Unibet) could be of some interest to those looking for an angle.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

I had initially put this game down as an Arsenal win mainly due to Aston Villa’s record following a midweek match this season being W2 D3 L5, with their two wins both at home against relegation strugglers (Wolves and Southampton).

However, Unai Emery has likely had this game circled for a long, long time, looking to inflict another loss against his former team at his old stomping ground. Last term Villa did the double over the Gunners, keeping two clean sheets, and arguably cost them the title.

Arsenal beat Villa earlier in the campaign but it was Emery’s team who created the better chances (xG: 1.28-0.87) limiting a (fully-fit) Gunners team extremely well again.

They now face a Mikel Arteta side without key man Bukayo Saka, and with an attack massively struggling for attacking confidence.

Against a Spurs defence far inferior to Villa’s in midweek they kept getting into dangerous positions but making the wrong decision. Against Villa, they will get into dangerous positions far less often, meaning their chances to score will be even more limited.

Set-pieces will once again provide their main threat, but Villa are one of the best at defending the dead-ball, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Emery’s side nullify the hosts at the Emirates.

I did toy with the idea of Villa keeping a clean sheet, but instead, I’ll back ASTON VILLA OR DRAW in the hope of another masterclass from Villa’s Spanish coach, reminding everyone at Arsenal of the tactical genius they let go.

The visitors will be defensively solid, and if we factor in Arsenal’s relentless schedule over the last month making tiredness a big problem, I could see a young and direct Aston Villa team repeating their success of last season.

In true Jimmy the Punt style, I’ll also put small stakes on doubling up VILLA DOUBLE CHANCE and EMI MARTINEZ TO BE CARDED at 16/1.

Referee Chris Kavanagh is a good appointment for card backers, and a good one for keeper card backers. This season he has averaged 5.29 cards per game, and has booked four goalkeepers in 15 domestic matches – all for time-wasting.

If this game goes the way I expect, you just know that Villa stopper Martinez – arguably the world’s best at this – will be pulling out all the stops to run down the clock against his former club.

He’s been carded twice this season, one for dissent and one for kicking the ball away. Across the last three seasons in the league and Conference League he has been carded 13 times, one for a foul, one for dissent and 11 for time wasting – including once against Arsenal.

Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 31

• Brentford 1-2 Liverpool
• Leicester 0-2 Fulham
• West Ham 1-1 C Palace
• Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa
• Everton 1-0 Tottenham
• Ipswich 1-2 Manchester City

Saturday’s tips – Odds correct at 1045 GMT (17/01/25)

Sunday’s tips – Odds correct at 1540 GMT (17/01/25)

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