Tag: Matchup

The AFC Championship may feature the NFL’s chief quarterback rivalry, pitting Patrick Mahomes against Josh Allen for the fourth time in their respective postseason careers. The NFC title game is no slouch when it comes to star power under center, however, featuring its own duel of electric signal-callers.

On one end: Jayden Daniels, the stellar rookie whose dual-threat heroics have quickly transformed the Washington Commanders from promising rebuild to big-stage contender. On the other: Jalen Hurts, whose MVP and Super Bowl bid just two seasons ago helped establish him as one of the steadiest winners at the position, even if fellow all-stars like Saquon Barkley now propel his Philadelphia Eagles.

Which of the two NFC East quarterbacks is best positioned to reach the Super Bowl? We’ve studied the tape and the numbers to break down which playmaker has the edge going into the NFC Championship:

The 2024 overview: Daniels vs. Hurts

Jayden Daniels	12-5	25	9	69.0	7.4	100.1	891	6
Jalen Hurts	12-3	18	5	68.7	8.0	103.7	630	14

No matter how you slice it, Daniels has enjoyed one of the finest seasons ever produced by a rookie quarterback, and that’s considering C.J. Stroud’s pristine debut for the Houston Texans in 2023. He’s been a true one-man show for Washington, offsetting an otherwise inconsistent Commanders rushing attack with smooth moves outside the pocket, while threading the needle as both a short-area and deep-ball passer for play-caller Kliff Kingsbury. Superior defenses briefly halted his gaudy numbers earlier this year, but there’s really not a whole lot to critique about his game, and he’s still in Year 1 at the NFL level.

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Tyler Sullivan

Hurts, meanwhile, has endured more of a “choppy” season, as he described it recently. His aerial marks are paltry by today’s passing standards, reinforcing just how much of the Eagles offense now runs through MVP-level ball carrier Saquon Barkley, whose home run breakaways have come with regularity. On the flip side, not so unlike Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs, Hurts has seemingly mastered the ability to control the rock when it matters most, contributing more as a bruising crunch-time scrambler and especially selective passer to let Barkley and the team’s physical defense pave the way.

Here’s how the two quarterbacks have fared just this postseason:

Jayden Daniels	2-0	4	0	69.7	8.6	116.2	89	0
Jalen Hurts	2-0	2	0	68.3	6.3	101.6	106	1

Daniels, again, has done more through the air, notably vaulting his yards per attempt from the regular season, whereas Hurts has taken even more of a back seat to the Eagles’ more methodical but equally victorious approach: stick to the ground game and hold onto the football.

What can these numbers — and other advanced statistics — tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface? Let’s proceed.

Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.

Accuracy

Hurts has come a long way since the earliest days of his NFL career, when he was far more scattershot with ball placement. Seven different times this season he eclipsed 20 pass attempts while completing at least 70% of those throws. In other words, when he’s let it rip, he’s generally been very on-target. Daniels has been just a smidge better, showcasing his snappy arm with five different starts of at least a 75% completion rate. Also helping his cause: He’s thrown it significantly more than Hurts in 2024, meaning he’s not only matched his rival’s accuracy on paper but done it with more regularity and rhythm.

Edge: Daniels

Ball control

Daniels’ heavier workload as the centerpiece of the Commanders’ offense hasn’t steered him into the turnover sprees of, say, 2023 starter Sam Howell. In fact, he’s totaled fewer giveaways (nine) than Hurts (10) while also playing two more games. Yet Hurts has really rebounded from an early-season bout with forced throws, making ball control his No. 1 priority for the stretch run, whereas seven of Daniels’ nine interceptions came in the back half of the schedule. Hurts has also been especially careful in the playoffs, losing the ball just once, either via fumble or pick, in his six postseason matchups since 2022.

Edge: Hurts

Big-play magic

Simplistically, Daniels is widely viewed as the hot new do-it-all star, whereas Hurts registers more as the scrappy but unconventional figurehead of an all-star Eagles lineup. Yet the numbers suggest Hurts is actually more likely to throw the ball farther down the field (8.0 air yards per attempt vs. 7.6 for Daniels). He’s also got more 20-yard runs (8) than Daniels (7), including playoffs. In truth, these guys about as even as it gets when it comes to generating explosive plays. Hurts’ current knee injury could well affect his upside in this area, so we’re going to break the mold and call this a straight-up draw.

Edge: Even

Rushing impact

How do you define “impact”? If it’s critical short-yardage efficiency you need, Hurts is your man. His 66 first-down carries and 15 touchdown runs, including playoffs, outweigh Daniels’ marks in those areas. Complicating his assessment, however, is the knee injury that seemed to affect his mobility at the end of the Eagles’ divisional-round victory. Daniels is a much different type of runner, practically coasting down the field rather than bowling through contact, but the freshness of his legs could work in his favor here. The fact he racked up close to 900 yards on the ground and no one batted an eye should speak volumes.

Edge: Daniels

Situational poise

The more you dig into these two, the more you realize just how exciting their NFC East battles could be not only on Sunday but for years to come. This category is a big reason why. Daniels has been virtually unfazed by adversity as a rookie, guiding five different fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He’s also posted his best passer rating when trailing, excelling rather than folding in the face of challenge. Hurts deserves just as much respect for his own unflappable posture, which was seen on the biggest stage of them all in 2022, but Daniels is also bearing a bigger load as a rookie. Man, it’s close.

Edge: Even

Home vs. road splits

Daniels has actually been a more effective passer on the road than at home, upping his completion rate from 64.6% to 74.6% in away contests. That bodes well for his return to Philadelphia. Hurts has really thrived at Lincoln Financial Field, though, and his comfort as a home quarterback extends back years; he’s now 23-5 as a starter at the Linc since 2022, including playoffs.

Edge: Hurts

Head-to-head history

Technically these two have only met twice, but even their existing series should carry an asterisk, as Hurts missed roughly three quarters of their last matchup, in December, due to a concussion. The first time they squared off, Daniels was relatively neutralized, rushing for just 18 yards and throwing for fewer than 200 as the Eagles controlled the ball. The last time they met, Daniels feasted on defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s blitz-heavier approach, tossing five touchdowns in a last-minute comeback win.

Edge: Even

The final verdict

The tally from our seven categories is as follows:

1. Jalen Hurts (2)
2. Jayden Daniels (2)
3. Even (3)

Hard to get much tighter than this, isn’t it? And the thing is, even if you swing the pendulum for one category (like giving Daniels the nod in situational poise thanks to his improbable calmness as a first-year player), you could just as easily do the same for another (like giving Hurts the nod for big-play magic, since he’s shown up in big spots over a longer sample size). It speaks to the intrigue of this NFC championship, where Daniels seemingly has the power to single-handedly guide another upset, but Hurts has enough moxie to pair with Philadelphia’s formidable supporting cast to get back to the Super Bowl. Buckle in.