Tag: McDaniels

Roughly 15 months ago, Jaden McDaniels signed a five-year contract extension that was almost unanimously considered to be a bargain.

With comparability at the time of a potential extension similar to that of Devin Vassell (5 years, 135 million) and Mikal Bridges (4 years, 90 million), McDaniels was coming off of a career season in 2022-23. On the brink of a contract extension, he averaged a career-high in points with 12, field goal percentage (51 percent), 3-point percentage (39 percent), and was snubbed for the all-defense teams.

Presenting himself as the perfect wing-stopping fit next to Anthony Edwards for the future, it was a non-negotiable to lock him down long-term and watch him blossom next to his fellow 2020 draftee.

Now in year one of his 5 year, $136 million deal that’s a contributor to one of the most expensive teams in the league, McDaniels finds himself in a different spot than he did two years ago in the starting lineup. His jump shot is inconsistent, and while rebounding well, his offense flows up and down while his on-ball defense continues to be above average to stellar. Much of this inconsistency in his night-to-night role feels like it can lead to confusion and frustration when a team is hovering around the .500 mark.

It’s a game of Russian Roulette with the former Washington Husky game to game. Will you get a career-high 27 points and a dominant two-way performance like you did in Dallas? Or a sub-40 percent shooting night in a close loss where wide-open shots created from ball movement are struggling to go down?

With the extension kicked in, McDaniels brings serviceable but inconsistent production to the starting five on a night-to-night basis relative to what his contract is, and the typical steady member of the supporting cast is one of the reasons for the the offensive tug-of-war that happens with the first unit. His role on that end is currently rooted in ambiguity; it’s not necessarily his fault, but it needs to change in its structure for the team to follow suit.

If the Minnesota Timberwolves plan to have #3 stick around long term, I ask – what is his role?

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Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The “Barometer for Ball Movement”

It’s been one of the infamous phrases that Chris Finch has previously used to describe McDaniels’ role in the offense dating back to last season.

Its meaning is simple: when the ball is zipping around, it’s likely McDaniels’ production will follow suit. If the Wolves fall into their dreaded ways of iso ball and your turn – my turn offense, it’s likely to end with a disappointing night in tow. He’s not someone who gets plays called for him and often has to act as a counterbalance and supplementary piece to what the higher-usage players are trying to do.

In previous seasons, it seemed that the night-to-night mystery of how full the barometer would get worked for everyone. This year, said assumption has gone out the window, and in my mind proven to be detrimental to what the offense is, especially early in games.

Playing with drive-and-kick players like Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards, while relatively flat year over year, McDaniels’ usage rate is the lowest it has been since his rookie season, as has his field goal percentage. Said drive and kick nature of the players around him are leading to his highest rate of 3-point shooting so far in his career, yet his 32 percent clip from the is the lowest it’s been since the 2021-22 season. At the current conversion rate, it’s not something that’s worked particularly well.

StatMuse

The barometer for ball movement is contingent on the idea that McDaniels is a consistent, reliable jump shooter, or someone who can continue to improve on that aspect of his game. With now the majority of his seasons in the association looking closer to this season’s 32 percent mark than his contract year’s 39 percent, it’s not something that I would consider to be bankable, nor would I expect him to be pigeonholed into being a catch and shoot player. It’s simple; someone making the contract Jaden currently is cannot sit in the corner and wait for residual looks to come from an offense that’s already shaky at its core.

He must have a role that’s more intentional and structured, becoming more a part of the solution as he has the tools to do; not a floater in the corner and a part of current problems.

Especially if a Julius Randle trade is something that’s to be explored, it’s absolutely essential that Jaden is relied on to expand his offensive responsibilities. You just don’t give someone the contract he received to play defense and be aloof on offense. Not in today’s NBA with apron restrictions in place.

But what does this look like? What does that possibly mean for a player whose counting stats clearly show signs of decline?

Great question. Despite questionable long-distance shooting, there are elements on display right now that could be used as building blocks moving forward.

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Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Where Do We Go From Here?

Rather than a barometer for ball movement, anyone with two eyes would see more of a proclivity to drive the offense in rebounding the basketball and expedite possessions, something not previously at the top of McDaniels’ statistical hierarchy.

“Certainly [Offensive rebounding], it’s been something he’s been able to add to his game,” Finch said about the willingness and increase in his volume on the glass. “We saw that in the playoffs last year, it was really impactful for us.”

It’s been a breath of fresh air for a team that’s struggled mightily in the category.

The Wolves rank 18th in adjusted rebound percentage and overall rebounds per game, and 15th in clutch time defensive rebound percentage.

At face value, many of the rebounding stats as a team may look ok. If you’ve watched, you know it’s far from it with the usual paint stalwart Rudy Gobert in the midst of a disappointing season.

It’s a place where the entrance of McDaniels to the party has been much needed. He’s averaging 6 rebounds in January (his best month of the season so far), posted career highs with 12 rebounds in Memphis on Monday, 5 offensive rebounds against Golden State in December, and has quietly been one of the best on the team this season in contested rebound percentage at 37 percent.

“He’s been much more active and involved [on the glass],” Finch said. “Some of that is that we’re able to get him off the ball and get him to the bottom of the floor in position to rebound…it helps us, and I think it helps him also.”

Inside the perimeter is a place that seems to help get things into rhythm. Not just in the sense of defending and ending possessions, but also in being able to find points.

I’ve noticed more this season than in previous ones just how effective Jaden is when he gets downhill and tries to get to the basket. His floater and fadeaway elbow jumper are effective weapons at his disposal, and he’s an underrated finisher when he gets to the rim. Not too different from wingmate Edwards but perhaps less effective, he’s tried to get his work done early from behind the perimeter (specifically the open corner shot), but some of his best games have come when he attacks early and works his way back out behind the line.

Among players on the roster who are a part of the regular rotation, Jaden is fourth on the team in field goal percentage inside of 10 feet at 57 percent. He trails just Rudy Gobert, Josh Minott, and Rob Dillingham (if you even want to consider them regular rotation players).

His recent stretch of games has been a double down of sorts. There’s no doubt that Jaden McDaniels should be given more leash in the grand scheme of current offensive utilization. What is there to lose, and how much more is that than what’s to gain?

Finding ways off of motion to get him downhill. Going from someone who doesn’t typically get his number called to someone who does. A more proactive approach to attacking the basket off of closeouts and finding his place as an offensive driver in assisting Gobert and Randle on the glass.

If the Wolves, even beyond this season want to find success moving forward, they must get consistent two-way play out of their 24-year-old wing and help him find the version of himself that had so many people hoping for his current long-term contract. The “barometer for ball movement” and the mystery box of what’s happening on a night-to-night basis has to stop.

Otherwise, what’s the point?