Tag: Minnesota

How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Saturday, 2/1/25

Tip-Off Time: 9:00 am PT

TV: B1G Network

Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Minneapolis, MN

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +4

Minnesota Golden Gophers 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 11-10

Points For per Game: 68.9 ppg (272nd)

Points Against per Game: 68.9 ppg (77th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 109.4 (125th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (87th)

Strength of Schedule: 39th

Minnesota Key Players:

G- Lu’Cye Patterson, Jr. 6’2, 202: 10.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 35.8% FG, 27.1% 3pt, 73.3% FT

The Minnesota native has played at both Missouri State and Charlotte but was more of a secondary ball handler averaging 14.6 points per game last year. Now in the B1G he’s being asked to play point guard and has been very good at limiting turnovers but is having a terrible shooting season. Although his outside shot has picked up as of late making 37% of his 3-point shots in B1G play.

G- Mike Mitchell, Sr. 6’2, 185: 11.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.0 apg, 37.0% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 73.7% FT

This is Mitchell’s 2nd season with Minnesota after he started his career playing under Lorenzo Romar at Pepperdine. He is known primarily as a long-range sniper and has shot 40% from deep for his career. This year he has cut way down on the turnovers but his shooting percentages are worse than last year across the board.

G- Isaac Asuma, Fr. 6’3, 196: 5.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 43.6% FG, 39.6% 3pt, 55.0% FT

It has been a great start for freshman Isaac Asuma who was a sub-100 recruit but is playing a ton of minutes as the 6th man for Minnesota. He is shooting 43.5% from deep in B1G play. Although it’s usually a bad sign if Minnesota relies too heavily on him because they’re 1-5 in games in which Asuma scores more than 6 points.

F- Femi Odukale, Sr. 6’6, 215: 6.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.4 apg, 42.3% FG, 21.4% 3pt, 46.7% FT

It has been a long and winding road for Odukale who transferred from Pittsburgh to Seton Hall to New Mexico State to Minnesota. He has never been a great shooter but is shooting a career worst from both 3-point range and the free throw line. He leads Minnesota in assist rate playing a bit of a point forward role but also leads the team in turnovers by a wide margin so it’s not a bad thing for UW for him to have the ball. He’s their best wing defender and is 3rd on the team in blocks and 1st in steals.

C- Dawson Garcia, Sr. 6’11, 234: 19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 50.2% FG, 37.2% 3pt, 76.2% FT

Garcia is the star for Minnesota and a clear all-conference selection. He had a great freshman year at Marquette then fizzled at North Carolina before transferring home and playing 3 seasons for Minnesota averaging at least 15 points and 6.5 rebounds in each. He’s a true stretch 5 and can do it all. He’s one of just 4 players in the country averaging at least 19 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 made 3 per game along with Rutgers’ Ace Bailey, Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud, and Duke’s Cooper Flagg. Garcia plays enough on the perimeter that he’s a terrible offensive rebounder for a 6’11 center but is a plus everywhere else.

The Outlook

Our long national (okay, extremely regional) nightmare is over. Washington finally gets to play a team that isn’t at the top of the conference standings. After 7 straight games against teams that rank in the top-32 at KenPom, Washington finally gets to play the team that is ranked the next worst in the league at 94th.

That doesn’t mean this one is going to be easy. Minnesota has a record that is close to Washington’s overall but they also have won 3 of their last 4 games. That includes home wins over Michigan and Oregon plus a road victory over Iowa. True, Minnesota got spanked at Michigan State in their most recent game but so did the Huskies in that same spot.

There are a lot of similarities in the roster makeup of these two teams. Both are extremely reliant on their star post player who leads the team in both points and rebounds per game. Both have starting lead guards from Minnesota who have struggled mightily to make outside shots this season (Tyree Ihenacho and Lu’Cye Patterson). Both have been terrible from the free throw line so far with UW at 305th and Minnesota 352nd nationally.

If there’s a positive for Minnesota’s offense other than the play of Garcia, it’s that they are generally a good passing team. The Golden Gophers rank 10th in the country in assist rate so they very rarely rely on isolation basketball. That will be a good test for the Huskies, who despite some shortcomings on the defensive end are 12th in opponent assist rate. Minnesota also ranks well-above average in turnover rate so their extra passes don’t result in a bunch of giveaways.

Teams don’t get a lot of fastbreak opportunities against Minnesota in part because of their ability to protect the ball and in part because of their tempo. They rank nearly last in the country in pace of play so Minnesota will concede some offensive rebounds to get back in transition and will also keep making the extra pass to chew up shot clock. You can’t rely on getting bailed out by Minnesota taking a quick 3 the first time it’s semi-available. They’re content to wait for the best open shot.

In the recent past it would be tempting to say that Dawson Garcia will carve up the Huskies inside. We’ll see if the return of Franck Kepnang means that Garcia will end up spending a lot more time on the perimeter where he is comfortable shooting from outside. If that’s the case, expect the Huskies to switch and play Osobor on Garcia with Kepnang guarding either Odukale or backup bigs Parker Fox and Frank Mitchell, none of whom are threats outside the paint.

When the Huskies have the ball they will need to be careful at the rim. Minnesota is top-30 nationally in block rate and all 4 of the players I just mentioned in the previous paragraph have a block rate over 3.5%. Only Kepnang and reserve KC Ibekwe are over that mark for the Huskies.

It’s tempting to pick Washington in this spot. Minnesota is by far the worst team they’ve played since a blowout win over NJIT in late December. If the Huskies play as well as they did against Maryland, Illinois, or UCLA then it should be enough to come away with a win. All of those games were at home though. We’ve only seen 2 road games outside the Pacific time zone for UW and they were 33 and 16-point losses. To teams much better than Minnesota but a 9 am body clock tipoff time worries me even with a week off between games.

Minnesota has shown they haven’t forgotten how to win a close game. They’re 7th nationally in D-1 experience. Their top-7 players in usage rate are all seniors and only one underclassman is a part of the rotation. It’s a veteran team even if there are only a few returning contributors. Washington’s only prior game against Minnesota was a heart-breaking loss on a contested 3-pointer following a travel with 2.1 seconds left back in 2018. I’ll say it won’t be quite that painful but similarly close until UW proves it can get over the hump.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 61, Minnesota Golden Gophers- 63