Tag: NCAAF

While there’s an apparent gap between these two programs, one thing that likely won’t be missing from this matchup is many of its best players. Rutgers may be missing a few defensive starters, as well as star running back Kyle Monangai.

Can the Wildcats’ depth help them close out the year strong, or will the Scarlet Knight cement their season with a great bowl performance?

Kansas State enters as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 52.

Let’s dive into my Rutgers vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for the Rate Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.

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We needed to highlight the status of running back Kyle Monangai, as he’s the Scarlet Knights’ offense. The senior running back carried the ball 256 times this season, and that’s with missing a game due to injury.

Moanangai leads a relentless ground attack that averages 4.1 yards per carry and has shown to wear on opposing defenses. However, it remains to be seen if it can damage this Kansas State unit.

However, according to head coach Greg Schiano, Monangai won’t play in Thursday’s Rate Bowl.

The Wildcats defense is the unit that made them a conference title contender, and specializes in shutting down the run game. Kansas State ranked 29th in yards per rush allowed and will have tremendous edges in the trenches here.

Kansas State’s front outranks Rutgers in Line Yards 17 to 86 on this side of the ball. That means there won’t be much push for the ground game, and that will still be this Rutgers offense.

If the ground game is nonexistent, it will be up to quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis’s arm, and that outlook is also bleak. Kaliakmanis ranked 121st in completion percentage and 95th in yards per pass this season.

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On the other side, the Wildcats also heavily rely on the ground game. They rank the ball at the 59th-highest rate in the country and have had great success doing so, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, which is good for fifth nationally.

However, running back DJ Giddens did the majority of that work. Giddens has declared for the NFL Draft and will be missed in this matchup, but given the Wildcats’ edge in the trenches and solid depth, we may not see them miss a beat.

Rutgers was a team punished by the ground game this season, as their opposition averaged five yards per carry against them. We should see Kansas State move the ball at will on the ground as they outrank Rutgers 31 to 90 in Line Yards and 54 to 117 in Rush Success Rate.

Much of that work will likely be done by backup running back Dylan Edwards, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 56 attempts this season.

Like we’ve seen all season, the work on the ground sets up explosive pass plays, and those should be available against a Rutgers secondary that could be without two starters.

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The market has held firm on this matchup because this line is nearly correct. Kansas State can dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball, allowing them to pull away in this matchup.

We saw a quick dip to 6.5, but that was quickly brought back up to seven. If you can get it under seven, the juice is worth paying for, but laying seven or even an alt 9.5 are numbers you should be comfortable with here.

This is much more of a mismatch than the records show, and we’ll see it on the scoreboard.

Pick: Kansas State -7 (Play to -7.5)

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By Thomas Schlarp

In an era of increasingly obscure sponsors slapping their names on bowl games, the 68 Ventures Bowl certainly ranks up there.

While this game lacks a trophy as exciting as a bespoke Pop-Tart toaster, it brings one of college football’s most electric offensive players in Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. The tight end could break two all-time NCAA records if things shake his way.

Fannin’s Falcons (7-5, 6-2 MAC) are searching for their first bowl win in a decade when Dino Babers led the program to a victory in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Scot Loeffler has turned the program around during his six-year tenure to get the Falcons back to their third straight bowl appearance.

Arkansas State (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt) hasn’t won a bowl game since 2019, but head coach Butch Jones has similarly turned the RedHawks program around during his four-year stint, increasing his team’s win total each season.

The Bowling Green offense is essentially fully loaded for this bowl matchup. Will that be enough to propel the Falcons to a touchdown-plus victory?

Bowling Green enters as a -8.5 favorite with an over/under of 53.5.

Let’s dive into my Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.

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It took four years, but Butch Jones finally managed a winning season at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves won four of their final six games to secure an above-.500 season and can now give the former Tennessee coach his first bowl victory since those Volunteers won the Music City Bowl in 2016.

Arkansas State’s seven-win season is all the more impressive considering how poorly its defense has played. The Red Wolves rank 129th in total defense, allowing 460.3 yards per game and finished 11th in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (32.3 points allowed per game).

The Red Wolves defense will be without corner Dontay Joyner, who entered the transfer portal after finishing fifth on the team in tackles and led the defense in passes defended.

To overcome the defensive flaws, Arkansas State must rely upon its multi-headed rushing attack led by running backs Zak Wallace and Ja’Quez Cross. Both backs have over 600 yards rushing, with Wallace being the more dangerous scoring option with his 10 rushing touchdowns, compared to Cross’ two.

Arkansas State also has one of the Sun Belt’s most dangerous receiving options in Corey Rucker who is fourth in the conference with 946 receiving yards. Quarterback Jaylen Rayner has connected with Rucker for five of his 14 passing touchdowns.

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There were some dark years, but Scot Loeffler has finally rebuilt the Bowling Green football program. A win over Arkansas State would give the Falcons eight wins, something they haven’t reached since 2015.

Since that year, Bowling Green has had a winless season and three more with three or fewer wins.

The Falcons came painstakingly close to reaching the MAC Championship this year before a season-finale to Miami (OH) dashed those plans. That loss ended a five-game winning streak for Bowling Green, who uses a balanced offense and has one of the conference’s better defenses.

Leading rusher Terion Stewart has already entered the transfer portal and committed to Virginia Tech, but he will be suiting up one more time for the Falcons after an 890-yard, six-touchdown season.

Bowling Green also has tight end Fannin available. Entering the bowl game with 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and nine touchdowns, Fannin needs just 11 yards against Arkansas State to break Jace Amaro’s single-season receiving yardage record for tight ends set in 2013.

The stud pass-catcher is also 12 catches from setting the single-season receptions mark for the position.

Defensively, Bowling Green has consistently shut down opposing passing offenses.

The Falcons finished second in the MAC in pass defense and had the conference’s second-most interceptions (11). Bowling Green also only allowed 16 touchdowns to conference foes, the second-fewest in the MAC.

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In a vacuum, Arkansas State’s defense is already concerning. The RedHawks have one of the worst all-around defenses in the Sun Belt and are near the bottom nationally in a handful of defensive metrics.

Usually, some of these holes are minimized in bowl season because the best skill-position players have been increasingly likely to opt out. But that’s not the case for Bowling Green.

The Falcons’ offense is expected to be as close to status quo as possible, and whether it’s through the air or on the ground, the Bowling Green offense is going to have a huge leg up.

Bowling Green has, at times, been bullied at the line of scrimmage, so I expect Arkansas State to hit one or two home runs rushing the ball, but it won’t be enough to keep pace.

The Falcons shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball and will win this by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Bowling Green -7.5 (Play to -8)