Tag: Nunos

  • How Nottingham Forest’s astonishing, explosive football has poked tactical snobs in the eye – and why Nuno’s outliers should be praised for bringing brilliant chaos to the Premier League, writes RIATH AL-SAMARRAI


    It was hardly a bouncer off his long run, but Arne Slot did find a bit of spin. His comments came on Tuesday night, after one of the most breathless halves of the season, when Liverpool left Nottingham Forest with a point and Slot floated a suggestion that one side fancied a draw more than the other.

    Among some healthy praise for the team he faced, this is what he said: ‘There was also a lot of moments where it took a while before the play restarted.’

    When he was asked to elaborate, Liverpool’s manager indulged: ‘You want as much playing time as you can, but a team that’s happy with the current result wants less playing time as they possibly can.’

    Nothing excessively moany there, but he was searching for a little turn off the wicket. A gentle nudge at perceptions, perhaps.

    And he would have had a few statistics in his corner, if he felt inclined to use them – 23 shots to six in Liverpool’s favour, 9-0 on corners, 71 per cent of the ball and there was a tedium about the wait for Elliot Anderson to recover from a brush with Trent Alexander-Arnold’s shoulder. In the digits, a 1-1 draw might not have looked like much of a return for Slot, after all.

    But I’d hope we know Forest a bit better than that by now.

    Nottingham Forest continued their stunning season with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool this week

    Nottingham Forest continued their stunning season with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool this week

    After the game, Reds boss Arne Slot claimed that Forest were happy to settle for a draw

    After the game, Reds boss Arne Slot claimed that Forest were happy to settle for a draw

    But, Nuno Espirito Santo's side are playing an astonishing and explosive brand of football

     But, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are playing an astonishing and explosive brand of football

    The idea they were resting on what they had doesn’t stand up to a review of the tape or any other memory from this season – it doesn’t have legs. But Forest do. They absorbed kitchen sinks with their faces, hacked clearances, slapped Matz Sels’s back so much his discs must have splintered, and still Nuno Espirito Santo’s team stormed their way up the other end of the pitch. Repeatedly.

    And that’s the key here – they attacked. They went in waves. At speed. Almost always on the counter and in levels of directness that contenders simply do not go for these days.

    It’s all there in the footage, especially from that period between the 66th minute and 97th, when it was level. Liverpool’s chances were better, more frequent, and how magnificent it is to watch them in full flight.

    But there were two in this dance, so let’s return to the idea Forest were clock-watching by reviewing what followed immediately after one of Sels’s many saves from Diogo Jota.

    Curtis Jones has gathered the loose ball, edge of the Forest area, and that’s where he’s tackled by Nicolas Dominguez. It’s the trigger for this side’s forte, because nine seconds later, the game has shifted 80 yards up the field. The ball has taken a quick road to get there – one pass is drilled from Gibbs-White to Callum Hudson-Odoi and another goes the other way back to Gibbs-White, nine touches in all, three men. Suddenly Liverpool are on their heels before the move breaks down in the six-yard box.

    Within minutes the same combination did it all again, 10 seconds from one area to the other, 10 touches, right-to-left-to-right. Two more minutes on and there they are once more, this time because Hudson-Odoi has intercepted an attack 18 yards from his goal line and set Anthony Elanga loose on a chase. Fewer touches this time, even quicker.

    Again, there’s no finish, because that Liverpool defence is worthy of a title, but nor was there a rush to get the ball to the corner flag. It was end to end to end to end, or ‘chaos’, as Steve McManaman shouted in the excitement of his commentary. And chaos is about right. Brilliant, unconventional chaos.

    Now what we didn’t see was Pep Guardiola’s football. And that’s a great kind of football indeed. A football that spawned 1,000 imitators and 100 sideways passes per game. The sort of football built on possession and patience and multi-faceted excellence, all eyes scanning for routes to a cut-back from the byline. That can sometimes morph into a football’s take on Andy Dufresne chipping away at the cell wall for years with a rock hammer.

    Nuno’s team storm their way up the other end of the pitch repeatedly throughout matches

    Nuno’s team storm their way up the other end of the pitch repeatedly throughout matches

    They also have a superb goalkeeper in Matz Sels who is enjoying the best season of his career

    They also have a superb goalkeeper in Matz Sels who is enjoying the best season of his career

    In attack, 33-year-old Chris Wood has been prolific, scoring 13 Premier League goals

    In attack, 33-year-old Chris Wood has been prolific, scoring 13 Premier League goals

    But that isn’t Forest. They use dynamite.

    Their football puts no onus on pressing in prescribed zones. Their way relies on choreography and precision timing, no less than Guardiola’s does, but if Nuno was writing this column it would be two paragraphs long. It might be better for it.

    It is the football of Hudson-Odoi and Gibbs-White, reimagined as a pair of double-barrel shotguns, Murillo as a wall, Sels moving ever onwards from his life as fourth-choice keeper at Newcastle. It is Elliot Anderson as the all-action hero, 33-year-old Chris Wood feeding off 70-yard punts from Sels and one-touch balls from midfield. One shot, one kill. It is Nikola Milenkovic heading, blocking, tackling and little beyond his hinterland of throw-back qualities. For £12m, Forest robbed Fiorentina blind in getting him.

    As a collective, they have been astonishing to watch these past few months and I’ve rarely enjoyed a game so much as I did on Tuesday.

    That is about the beauty of differences. The beauty of different styles, different approaches, different ways to defend and attack. It’s why I’d hope above hope for Ange Postecoglou’s preservation at Tottenham, but his football doesn’t work like Nuno’s football.

    There have been two thoughts attached to Forest’s climb this season. One is the mind-boggling nature of where they are, compared to what they are meant to be in our ecosystem. And the other is the how. How they have built a team on unfancied talents and how they play, using a directness that has no regular place of business in the top three.

    I tend to loathe discussions that break football down into a statistical examination. But some are startling, such as the possession figures across the eight years since Guardiola arrived in the Premier League.

    The topic of his influence has been discussed at great length elsewhere, as has the upshot that everyone wants a bit of Pep in their play now. Slot does, so too Mikel Arteta, Enzo Maresca, Graham Potter and the coach whose team beat my daughter’s side in the Under 11s last week.

    Forest might not press teams, but at the back their work-rate and desire is relentless

    Forest might not press teams, but at the back their work-rate and desire is relentless

    They play differently to the way Pep Guardiola teams do, but that is the beauty of differences

    They play differently to the way Pep Guardiola teams do, but that is the beauty of differences

    Done right, it is sublime. And it is equally well-observed that too much of a great thing can make life a bit samey. But there is nothing samey in the recent past to the how of Nottingham Forest.

    Opta provided me with a few data points this week that show only 18 teams since 2016 have gone through a season with an average of 40 per cent possession or less per game. Seven of them went down and none got higher than 10th. Allowing the other team to come at you is usually a symptom of limitations.

    But then there’s Nuno’s Forest, the outlier. Not pressing, rarely going above 300 passes per game, 39 per cent possession on average. They are a difference we never realised we wanted to see.

    They are making us think of possibilities that surely won’t come to fruition, of Leicester City, but at the very least Forest are plucking a twig and shoving it in the eye of tactical snobs everywhere.

    I wouldn’t ever put Slot in that bracket, but what he saw as killing time would be better appreciated as a side who need an awful lot less to cause fabulous explosions.

    Can Chelsea keep B-team stars happy? 

    There was no surprise that Chelsea slaughtered Morecambe last weekend – they have an expensive B team to handle the lesser challenges of a busy season. 

    It’s part of the strategy. But how sustainable is it to keep players happy if they know progress will have limited rewards? 

    Christopher Nkunku scored in that game, giving him 13 for the season, mostly against minnows in the Conference League, and none of those strikes have been followed by a start in the next Premier League fixture.

    Enzo Maresca may struggle to keep B-team stars Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku happy

    Enzo Maresca may struggle to keep B-team stars Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku happy

    Joao Felix is in a similar boat, with six goals in the cups, including two screamers against Morecambe, but Enzo Maresca didn’t see the merit in unleashing his confidence against Bournemouth on Tuesday. 

    He was on the bench again, as he has been after all his scoring appearances. For him and Nkunku, the reason is Cole Palmer. Tough one, that. 

    But Nkunku is open to leaving this month and Felix’s frustrations have occasionally appeared near the surface. 

    All well and good having a deep squad but no one wants to feed off low-hanging fruit forever.

    Fury sceptics give me hope 

    Tyson Fury retired this week. No one in boxing believed him. There might be hope for the sport yet.



    Nottingham Forest and Nuno’s Outliers: Embracing Brilliant Chaos in the Premier League

    In a season where tactical nuances and possession-based football have dominated the headlines, Nottingham Forest’s astonishing, explosive style of play has caught the eye of many football fans. Led by their enigmatic manager, Nuno, the team’s fearless approach on the pitch has poked the proverbial eye of tactical snobs who have long championed conservative, possession-based football.

    While some may argue that Nottingham Forest’s style of play lacks structure and discipline, there is no denying the sheer excitement and unpredictability that they bring to the Premier League. Nuno’s outliers have shown that sometimes, it is the teams that dare to be different that leave a lasting impact on the game.

    In a league where conformity and adherence to traditional tactics often reign supreme, Nuno’s outliers should be praised for their willingness to embrace chaos and bring a sense of unpredictability to the Premier League. In a world where football is often over-analyzed and dissected, Nottingham Forest’s explosive brand of football serves as a refreshing reminder that sometimes, it is the teams that march to the beat of their own drum that truly leave a mark on the beautiful game.

    So, as we witness Nottingham Forest’s audacious style of play continue to dazzle and entertain fans, let us not forget to celebrate the brilliance of Nuno’s outliers and the chaos they bring to the Premier League. In a world where conformity often reigns supreme, it is teams like Nottingham Forest that remind us of the beauty and excitement that comes with embracing the unexpected.

    Tags:

    Nottingham Forest, explosive football, tactical snobs, Nuno, outliers, Premier League, brilliant chaos, RIATH AL-SAMARRAI, football analysis, sports journalism.

    #Nottingham #Forests #astonishing #explosive #football #poked #tactical #snobs #eye #Nunos #outliers #praised #bringing #brilliant #chaos #Premier #League #writes #RIATH #ALSAMARRAI

  • There’s nothing lucky about Forest’s rise with Nuno’s hot hand at the controls | Nottingham Forest


    There was a period when datawallahs insisted confidence didn’t exist – which came as a surprise to almost everybody who has ever played sport at any level. There are days when you feel invincible, when every putt drops, when every ball pitches in the right place, when you claim every cross. And there are days when your club may as well be a Toblerone, when catching the easiest dolly seems an impossible feat of calculation and coordination, when your legs simply will not function. Vast screeds were written dismissing the “hot-hand fallacy”.

    Then, in 2020, the journalist Ben Cohen wrote The Hot Hand, which demonstrated a flaw in previous calculations and decided that the hot hand – a term from basketball referring to a player on a scoring streak – does exist. From a layman’s perspective, the tests employed always seemed so artificial to be highly questionable anyway. And it always seemed a little odd that two of the real boom areas of sports science – data analytics and psychology – would take up apparently contradictory positions: one insisting a positive mental outlook meant nothing and the other that it was essential.

    So confidence in sport exists and we’re allowed to talk about it without boffins sighing disapprovingly. Which brings us to Nottingham Forest, who before the weekend fixtures sat third in the Premier League having taken four points off the league leaders Liverpool this season. There was a lot of discussion after their draw on Tuesday about whether Nuno Espírito Santo’s side had deserved it, but “deserve” is always a confusing concept in football. The result is the result and, although Liverpool won the xG 2.0–0.3, to say that Forest were somehow lucky is to ignore both how comfortable they seemed in the first three-quarters of the game, and the consistency of their results this season.

    Only Tottenham have outperformed their xG goal-difference by more than Forest this season. (That in itself is a slightly weird detail given context by the fact that, if Spurs have an xG advantage, they tend to win comfortably – for instance beating Southampton 5-0 when their xG was only 1.5 better, or Manchester City 4-0 when their xG was only 0.4 better). Over the season, Forest’s goal difference is 7.5 goals better than their xG difference.

    It certainly feels as though Forest have hit upon an extremely effective method this season. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The Observer

    This season, it has become common after an Arsenal failure to win for Mikel Arteta to point out how dominant his side was. “Incredible how you don’t win that game,” he said after losing on penalties to Manchester United in the FA Cup last Sunday. “The dominance, the superiority in relationship to the opposition.” After the draw against Fulham, he said: “This is the quality of the opposition, with one chance they score a goal. And then the margins of the league as well. [But] for millimetres we could have been sitting here with three points. Now we have to look at what we can do better so that the opposition have zero chances to win the game.” When Arsenal failed to break down Everton last month, he spoke of how a team has “to try to generate the highest winning probability.”

    All of which is true. The likelihood in all those games was that Arsenal would win – and yet they won none of them. The question is: is that freakish, or is that the result of a lack of edge, a lack of hardness, a lack of a top-class centre-forward? Yet for all their recent struggles in front of goal, Arsenal have outperformed their own xG by 41 to 36.5 in the league this season.

    For Forest, the question is similar. It may be – in fact it’s likely – that as the season goes on their form will fade and reality and xG will draw closer together. But does that mean Forest’s position is a fluke? Perhaps it is and we’re simply conditioned to find explanations: mankind cannot cope with too much randomness and so has always to find patterns and explanations.

    But it certainly feels as though Forest have hit upon an extremely effective method. In Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic they have two authoritative central defenders. The two exceptional saves Matz Sels made against Liverpool were in keeping with his performances this season. Those three are part of a solid structure, aided by a pair of deep-lying central midfielders – Elliot Anderson has stood out – and full-backs having fine seasons; Neco Williams effectively neutralised Mohamed Salah on Tuesday. Forest have conceded 20 goals with an xG against of 23.7 – not only have they got the second-best xG against in the league (behind Arsenal) but the excellence of Sels, who has the second-best shots saved percentage in the division, means they are outperforming it.

    Forest’s attacking method is straightforward: using the pace and direct running of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga to exploit the space behind opponents drawn forward by their preference for sitting deep and playing without the ball (nobody, not even Everton, has had a lower percentage possession in the Premier League this season). Chris Wood is the ideal target for playing long from the back, and is scoring goals, with Morgan Gibbs-White, all energy and invention, knitting everything together.

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    Their xG is only the 15th best in the Premier League, but they have outscored it by 3.8. It may be that that is unsustainable, and it is largely a result of Wood scoring 5.2 goals more than his xG but then, when a team plays so absolutely to a striker’s strengths, perhaps that is not entirely unexpected. And once it is accepted that confidence exists, success – and failure – is to an extent self-perpetuating.

    Forest’s simplicity is deceptive: it looks easy because it is so well planned, players who fit together in a cohesive system – something that, it has to be said, never seemed plausible amid the trolley-dash that followed promotion. They have been fortunate with injuries – only three sides have had fewer lost days this season – but Forest are a triumph of Nuno’s clarity of vision. As games have been won, confidence has blossomed and Forest have played better and better.

    Fatigue, injury and regression to the mean probably will catch up with them at some stage, but that doesn’t mean their success is in any way lucky or undeserved. Outperforming expectation is what good management looks like.



    Nottingham Forest has been on a remarkable rise in the Championship this season, currently sitting in the playoff spots with a strong chance of promotion to the Premier League. Many have attributed Forest’s success to luck, but the truth is, there is nothing lucky about their rise with Nuno Espirito Santo’s hot hand at the controls.

    Nuno has been instrumental in transforming Forest from a mid-table team to a promotion contender. His tactical acumen, man-management skills, and ability to get the best out of his players have been key factors in Forest’s success this season. Under his guidance, Forest has become a well-drilled, organized, and disciplined team that is capable of grinding out results even when not playing at their best.

    Nuno’s experience and success in the Premier League with Wolves have also been crucial in guiding Forest through the ups and downs of a grueling Championship season. His calm demeanor and ability to instill belief in his players have been invaluable in keeping Forest focused and on track towards their goal of promotion.

    So, as Forest continue their push for promotion, let’s not attribute their success to luck. Instead, let’s give credit where credit is due – to Nuno Espirito Santo and his hot hand at the controls of Nottingham Forest. With him leading the way, there’s no telling how far Forest can go this season.

    Tags:

    Nottingham Forest, Nuno Espirito Santo, Championship, football, rise to success, Forest football club, Nuno’s impact, Nottingham Forest news, manager success, Championship team, football tactics, Nuno’s leadership, Forest’s rise to the top

    #lucky #Forests #rise #Nunos #hot #hand #controls #Nottingham #Forest

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