Tag: Overs

Daniel Dopp and I hit on five of our seven props in the first week of the NFL postseason. Bo Nix let Daniel down and Zach Ertz disappointed me, from a props perspective. (Though — spoiler — that isn’t going to stop me from attacking the tight end position again this go around.)

While we’re proud of our collective effort, we’d love to achieve perfection in the divisional round.

Focusing solely on the Sunday games, here this week’s props that pop! — Liz Loza

All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

Lamar Jackson OVER 278.5 rushing + passing yards (-118)

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Why Fulghum has his eyes on the Ravens-Bills’ points total

Tyler Fulghum is taking the under in Ravens-Bills, factoring the strength of Buffalo’s offensive line against Derrick Henry.

Loza: Jackson’s overall efficiency this season as a passer and a rusher has been off the charts. He ranks first at the position in YPA (8.8) as well as rushing yards per contest (53.8). Jackson is completing 70% of his passes with a clean pocket, so the Buffalo Bills pass rush (which ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate at 44.6%) figures to bring the heat. Still, the Baltimore Ravens‘ offensive line has protected Lamar beautifully, registering the third-highest pass-block win rate (69.8%).

This aerial battle figures to be tight (the Ravens are a 1-point favorite) and showcase plenty of back-and-forth action (51.5 game points total). But even if Buffalo manages to contain Jackson in the passing game, the QB should gain traction with his legs against a defensive unit that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers.

Jackson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-140)

Dopp: Lamar has been the best rushing QB in the NFL this year, amassing 915 rushing yards on the ground in the regular season and adding 81 more yards in last week’s wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. This prop could pair nicely with Liz’s prop of Jackson topping 278.5 rushing and passing yards. Lamar has hit at least 63 rushing yards in three straight games and five of his last six.

The Bills have actually been fairly decent against the run this year, but Jackson is in a different category than any other player in the NFL when it comes to running the ball. He’s a true wizard when scrambling, especially when a play breaks down and improvises. I wouldn’t go any lower than -140 if I was taking this bet, and I’d absolutely consider pairing this with a passing prop of 275+ passing yards. When you put those two props together, it creates a nice little two-leg parlay at +163.

Josh Allen OVER 32.5 pass attempts

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Is Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen the best rivalry?

Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Ryan Clark discuss Lamar Jackson’s comments about his friendship with the Bills quarterback.

Dopp: There’s a lot to like in this Ravens-Bills matchup, but if you’re thinking about the game the same way I am, you’re likely expecting more than a handful of points to be scored. ESPN BET has the total at 51.5, so it looks like the book is also expecting some decent offense in this one as well. The Ravens defense has proven to be pretty legit at stopping the ground game, allowing the second-fewest rush attempts and the fewest rushing yards this season. That should mean more passing for the Bills offense. If the Ravens put up points like we expect, it means more throwing for Allen.

The Ravens have the third-most pass attempts against them this season, and a 32.5 passing attempts number isn’t an astronomical amount by any means. Allen has topped this line seven times this season and fell four pass attempts short of this line when the Bills played the Ravens earlier this year in a 35-10 loss. Eleven QBs have put up at least 33 attempts against the Ravens on the season. I’m leaning into the high-scoring narrative in this one, which means I’m taking the over on Allen’s pass attempts Sunday.

Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 INTs (-135)

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Why Fulghum has the Eagles heading to NFC Championship Game

Tyler Fulghum explains why he favors the Eagles over the Rams to head onto the NFC Championship Game.

Dopp: The Philadelphia Eagles have been on a heater against opposing QBs recently, nabbing at least one interception in four straight games. But stat doesn’t even tell the whole story, as Philly has produced eight interceptions over that four game span! This defense is playing hot, and teams have had to throw against them more often than not toward the end of the season to try to keep up with the Eagles offense.

Stafford has actually been pretty good at protecting the ball this year. He has only one interception since Week 11! I’m expecting the story to be different in the divisional round with the Los Angeles Rams playing in a blustery, cold Philly climate. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low 30’s with winds hitting 10-15 mph, and there’s a 97% chance of snow in Philadelphia on Sunday with accumulation expected to be around 3-5 inches. It’s not going to be a whiteout, but it’ll certainly be a chilly outing for a team from L.A.

Given the Eagles defense’s knack for finding the ball and the likelihood of the Rams playing from behind, I’m taking Stafford to have at least one pick in this one. And, you know what, why not put a few pennies down on Darius Slayton, his old teammate from Detroit to be the defender to come up with the INT at +500 over at ESPN BET?

Running back props

Justice Hill OVER 2.5 receptions (-160), longest rush OVER 5.5 yards (-130)

Loza: Hill isn’t the Ravens’ running back that most folks are talking about this week. And that’s exactly why I want to highlight his potential. The Bills have been fantastically generous to RBs via the air, allowing the second-most catches (5.4 per game) and the most receiving yards (44 per game) to the position over the regular season. Meanwhile, Hill has recorded at least four grabs in each of his last three healthy contests. Additionally, he hauled in all six of his looks (for 78 receiving yards a score) when he teed off against Buffalo back in Week 4.

While the 27-year-old has registered just 53 carries thus far into the season, it’s worth noting that over 20% of them (11) went for over six yards. As previously discussed, the Bills’ run defense can be had (4.6 YPC to opposing rushers). Additionally, the Bills’ have given up the ninth-most rushes of 10 or more yards (62). That’s great for Derrick Henry. It also makes a single rush of six yards more than possible for Hill, especially since he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

Tight end props

Dallas Goedert OVER 39.5 receiving yards (Even)

Loza: The Rams defense put together a masterful effort in the wild-card round, limiting the Minnesota Vikings to nine points. L.A.’s young pass rush stood up, regularly pressuring Sam Darnold and protecting the team’s secondary from potential exposure. However, the Rams are unlikely to have the same success versus Jalen Hurts and the electric Eagles offense. While that should allow room for Philly’s wide receivers to shine, bettors should also expect Goedert to be involved.

L.A. has struggled against opposing tight ends all season, giving up the third-most catches (6.2 per game) and the fourth-most receiving yards (65.7 per game) to the position. Despite the Rams’ success last Monday, T.J. Hockenson converted all five of his looks for 64 receiving yards and Minnesota’s lone TD. Ranking fifth at the position in yards per target (9.5) and seventh among TEs in yards per reception (11.8), Goedert won’t need to be fed in order to fly. Averaging over four catches and nearly 50 receiving yards per game, the 30-year-old figures to flirt with four grabs and forty yards Sunday.

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