Tag: Path

LOS ANGELES — With the NBA’s trade deadline fast approaching, the Los Angeles Lakers have 17 days to determine the organization’s direction as the LeBron James-Anthony Davis era winds down.

As things stand, the Lakers are 22-18 and No. 6 in the Western Conference. They have dominated teams below .500 (11-1) but have struggled against teams that are .500 or better (11-17 — the worst mark among the Western Conference’s 10 current playoff/Play-In teams). The Lakers are on pace to win 45 games, but their expected win total is 36 wins, a notable nine-win difference, per Cleaning the Glass.

Those statistics suggest this is an average-ish team enjoying slightly above-average results. That’s concerning for a group that entered the season believing it could win a title. And with the clock ticking on James’ legendary career — the operating assumption around the league is that he’ll play just one more season — an average group isn’t good enough.

James suggested as much when asked how this group could give itself more “margin for error,” after the Lakers’ recent loss to the Clippers.

“Nah,” James said about the group trying to make things easier for themselves. “That’s how our team is constructed. We don’t have room for error — for much error.”

James doubled down on his not-so-subtle sentiment about the quality of the Lakers’ roster when asked a follow-up question.

“We don’t have a choice,” James said of the mental demands of having no margin for error on a nightly basis. “I mean, that’s the way our team is constructed. And we have to play close-to-perfect basketball.”

After sitting out three trade cycles — the 2023 offseason, the 2024 trade deadline and the 2024 offseason — the Lakers made a win-now trade for Dorian Finney-Smith on Dec. 29, adding a 40-plus-percent 3-point shooter and versatile, tough frontcourt defender for the cost of D’Angelo Russell and three second-round picks. Since joining the team, Finney-Smith has led the group in plus-minus, fitting in well around James and Davis as a seasoned role player with deep playoff experience.

But for as shrewd of a move as the Finney-Smith trade was, it wasn’t the type of all-in deal the Lakers need to vault into legitimate championship contention. The trade was supposed to be a precursor to another move or two — and still might be.

The Lakers are at a crossroads with the Feb 6. trade deadline rapidly approaching. They can take one of three general approaches: 1) Use first-round draft capital and their (relatively) expendable contracts to significantly upgrade the roster and try to make a serious run this season and next season; 2) stand pat, or make a smaller move with their remaining second-round picks, all but assuring that they’ll lose in the first or second round of the playoffs; or 3) tear the roster down and rebuild by trading James and Davis for as many picks and young players as possible.

As The Athletic reported after the Finney-Smith trade, the Lakers remain active on the trade market in pursuit of upgrades, according to team and league sources. They continue to evaluate their roster and are cautiously optimistic that Jarred Vanderbilt’s looming return will give them clarity as to which positions and skills they need most. With just over two weeks remaining until the deadline, though, it’s time to assess whether this group is running out of time.

The sense around the league, when talking to rival scouts and front-office personnel, is that standing pat or making a half-measure trade (likely one or two second-round picks) is more likely than the Lakers going all-in and trading both of their future first-round picks that can be moved. That’s dependent, of course, on the available players, asking prices and the team’s performance through the deadline.

The logic is that when examining the crop of players expected to be available at the deadline, there is no panacea for the Lakers. They have three notable needs they have to address to become a contender: better two-way wings, especially defensively, a better backup center, capable of protecting the rim and rebounding, and another ballhandler and playmaker to help James and Austin Reaves when one is off the floor.

There are potential trades that could check up to two of those boxes, but addressing all three needs is almost impossible without making two separate trades (or expanding to a three-team deal). And even then, there are several limiting factors, like the Lakers’ draft capital (up to two first-round picks, two second-round picks and three pick swaps) and their underwhelming mid-sized salaries (Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt).

Around the league, the expectation is the Lakers will prioritize adding either a big or another ballhandler, assuming Vanderbilt’s return goes well and considering the lack of available two-way wings in Los Angeles’ price and asset range.

Given the production from Davis and James this season, and their pedigree together in the playoffs, it’s reasonable to argue that the Lakers have a shot to make another run in the Western Conference playoffs with the right trade (or trades) at the deadline. The recent market price for role players has dipped during this trade cycle (a first-round pick has yet to be exchanged), and with two first-round picks, the Lakers are well-positioned to improve their rotation if they so choose.

Outside of the juggernaut that is the Oklahoma City Thunder as well as the Denver Nuggets, a long-time tormentor, the Lakers have fared well against the rest of the conference over the past two seasons. There isn’t another team that strikes fear in them (even the Thunder, for as great as they are, have struggled with the force and physicality of Davis and James over the past two seasons).

At the same time, one has to consider the point of making alterations to what appears to be an average team. The Lakers are just 4-5 since the Finney-Smith trade, ranking 17th in offensive rating, 26th in defensive rating and 25th in net rating.

For the season, their net rating (-2.9) and point differential (-2.6) are both alarming, as is their record against above-.500 teams (and, more specifically, their 2-7 record against teams with better records than them). If the Lakers deem this group not good enough to keep investing in and decide to stand pat or trade it away, they would have statistical and anecdotal proof in their favor. There isn’t much point in being the seventh seed and having a competitive first-round loss again. And that’s why the Lakers are in such a tricky position over the next two-plus weeks.

They have tried to walk a delicate and ambitious path, aiming to build a competitive team in the present around James and Davis, while also prioritizing the post-James future by valuing their first-round picks and some of their younger core players like Reaves, Max Christie and Dalton Knecht. The predicament is that, as things stand, they aren’t good enough to truly contend for a championship and also aren’t stocked with promising young players and draft assets for the post-James tomorrow either. Given the Lakers’ reality, it is tough to justify a half-measure.

For what it’s worth, taking the all-in approach has long been the preferred path of James and Davis. James supported the Lakers’ interest in Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray and Zach LaVine in previous seasons, and has never valued draft picks.

Adding such a player will be difficult, though. Even if the Lakers wanted to, say, take a giant swing for Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram or LaVine, it’s hard for them to match salaries (and they don’t have enough assets to win a bidding war). As a first-apron team, they can’t take back more money than they send out. And after trading Russell’s $18.7 million expiring contract for Finney-Smith, shedding salary in the process, they no longer have a midsized expiring contract to dangle in trade talks. That makes a trade for a role player on a more modest salary far more likely than adding another star.

Furthermore, Reaves’ emergence as a legitimate third option — he’s averaging 20.4 points and 7.3 assists per game since the Finney-Smith/Russell trade — has made the Lakers’ prior need for a third star/option superfluous. The more pragmatic approach is finding the best players available, especially ones with two-way abilities, who can check the aforementioned boxes of another wing, a better backup center and another ballhandler/playmaker.

Rebuilding is the least likely option, if not entirely off the table. The Lakers pride themselves on being a star-friendly franchise, and there have been no indications that James or Davis want to leave. Trading them away, even to better situations from a contention standpoint, is against the organization’s ethos.

There is no obvious solution for the Lakers. There are fair arguments for any of their potential paths. But one thing is clear: It’s time to pick a direction.

(Photo of LeBron James: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)