Tag: Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins struck a four-player trade on Sunday centered around left-handed pitcher Jesús Luzardo. The Marlins, continuing their sell-off under second-year executive Peter Bendix, received a pair of minor-league players, including switch-hitting shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba.

As is always the case when a notable deal happens during the offseason, I’m here to provide trade grades. Below, I’ve analyzed each player involved in the swap while providing both larger thoughts about the transaction’s circumstances and a letter grade for each side that attempts to summarize my general feelings.

First, here’s the deal in whole:

• Phillies receive: LHP Jesús Luzardo, C Paul McIntosh
• Marlins receive: SS Starlyn Caba, OF Emaarion Boyd 

Now, on to the reason you clicked.

Phillies: B+

Player health is the great unknown in public sports analysis. It’s the No. 1 variable that turns reasonable preseason projections into freezing cold takes, and it’s the unseen mover that helps shape trades and contracts in either direction. If you sit still, unfocus your eyes, and get lucky, then sometimes you can catch a glimpse of it in motion. That’s the case here, where I have to assume Luzardo’s physical status (he was limited to 12 starts last season by back and elbow issues) suppressed his market.

Otherwise? Luzardo is a 27-year-old southpaw with a quality three-pitch mix. Oh, and in addition to generating a 119 ERA+ since 2022, has two seasons of team control remaining. On paper, that’s one heck of an addition to a Phillies rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez. 

Again, though, the glimpses might — might — convince you that Luzardo’s availability and output could be compromised. His average fastball velocity declined by 1.5 mph year to year, and his caliber of stuff also worsened. Don’t take my word for it. Baseball Prospectus’ StuffPro metric, a model that judges quality of pitches based on their innate traits, had only his slider graded as an average or better offering in 2024.

The Phillies have more information about Luzardo’s health. Maybe there’s nothing to my concerns, or maybe they’re willing to chance it. If it’s the former, this grade will look light. If it’s the latter, the Phillies are well positioned to roll the dice: they need just four of the five starters to be healthy and effective by the time next October comes around.

McIntosh, 27, spent last season in Double-A as an overaged backstop, hitting .246/.340/.385 with 12 home runs. He has good strength and has always been receptive to taking a free pass. Alas, he’s struggled to keep his strikeout rate in check, and it’s hard to ignore that the Marlins kept him in Double-A all year rather than give him so much as an audition at the big-league level.

Marlins: C

Bendix’s teardown of the Marlins is nearing completion. Just six of the 24 players who appeared during Miami’s 2023 Wild Card Series remain in the organization: Jesús Sánchez, Xavier Edwards, Braxton Garrett, Nick Fortes, Andrew Nardi, and George Soriano. Clearly none of them should get too comfortable on South Beach. 

Anyway, this here is a trade where Bendix is clearly prioritizing ceiling over floor.

Caba, 19, struggled in his first taste of pro ball outside of the complex. Over 26 games in the Florida State League, he batted .179/.304/.190 with one extra-base hit in 115 plate appearances. It was a small sample in a league where his average opponent was nearly three years his senior, but the stint reinforced concerns about his offensive profile.

Caba is on the small side (he’s listed at 5-foot-9, 160 pounds) and has shown minimal ability to impact the baseball from either side of the plate — to the extent that his spray chart makes Jacob Wilson look strong. He does have an appreciable feel for the zone and contact alike, connecting on more than 85% of his swings in the FSL. That explains how he was able to record more walks than strikeouts despite his poor topline results.

The question in front of Caba is whether or not he can burn pitchers enough for his on-base skills to matter. The alternative scenario has pitchers pounding the zone and force-feeding him strikeouts without concern. If there’s good news for Caba, it’s that he doesn’t have to provide much offensive value to justify a roster spot (and perhaps even part of the starting lineup). He’s an outstanding defensive shortstop and a capable thief who has succeeded on 66 of his 84 professional stolen-base attempts. 

It would be too cute to describe Boyd, 21, as the outfield version of Caba. There are some similarities, however, since both are contact-and-speed driven players with serious offensive downsides. To wit, he spent last season in High-A, hitting .239/.317/.331 with three home runs and 27 stolen bases (on 39 attempts). Boyd, like Caba, was also young for the league (by two years); the greatest difference between the two is that Boyd is a less refined defender who has primarily played left during his professional career.

The Marlins appear to be banking on their ability to more accurately evaluate the hit tool (the metaphysical component of a player’s game that can be summed up as “can they swing it or not?”) in power-barren profiles, as well as to tease out more from each player’s athleticism. Maybe Miami cashes out; both Caba and Boyd have some intriguing right-tail outcomes. It’s hard to shake the feeling that this return feels a touch light, be it because of Luzardo’s health or the Marlins keying in on a type.