We’ve seen a few minor trades leading up to the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline. But with that date less than two weeks away, expect the action to heat up.
I decided to create five different trade proposals that I would like to see happen over the week-plus. With Jimmy Butler taking up so much oxygen on the trade market as teams jockey to either acquire the Miami Heat star or get involved as a third, fourth or even fifth team within a potential deal, I thought it would be fun to come up with five that don’t involve Butler.
I tried to stick to fairly realistic deals involving players who are thought to be at least somewhat available. There are moves here that help teams avoid the luxury tax, that help teams build for the future or that help teams now. But these are deals I’d like to see, not necessarily ones that have actually been discussed by the teams involved. I tried to get creative in a few places to try to solve issues within each of these situations, and creativity is often the way that these trades get done because of the differing values that each front office places on assets.
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Along with each proposal, I gave reasons why they make sense, as well as reasons why they might not happen. Enjoy!
• Brooklyn Nets trade Cameron Johnson and a 2025 first-round pick to San Antonio
• San Antonio Spurs trade Keldon Johnson, a 2025 first-round pick and a top-six protected 2027 first-round pick to Brooklyn
Why it makes sense
If there is one thing San Antonio needs to surround Victor Wembanyama with moving forward, it’s shooting. The Spurs are 24th in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.4 percent. It’s hard to imagine a better influx of shooting talent than Cameron Johnson, one of the game’s best. He’s a 6-foot-8 wing who can fill it up from distance, having drilled 41.9 percent from 3 on nearly eight attempts per game this season. That’s not an outlier year, either. Since the 2021-22 season, Johnson has hit a ridiculous 40.9 percent on over six 3-point attempts per game. He’s also continuing to improve off the dribble and as a scorer. He’s not necessarily a plus defender, but he knows where he has to be and consistently gives effort.
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If you’re a Spurs fan, you’re likely hoping the 2025 NBA Draft will be a potential source of shooting talent given that San Antonio will have at least two picks that could end up in the top 20. However, I wouldn’t say shooting is a particular strength of this draft class. Players like Tre Johnson, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakucionis and Ace Bailey have shown real shooting talent, but none of those players may last until No. 10, the current highest-projected pick the Spurs would have. And even if those players are available, the Spurs need to add more than one great shooter to this core around Wembanyama and non-shooters Stephon Castle and Jeremy Sochan. Johnson would solve this issue immediately, give the team a better chance to make the Play-In Tournament and give the Spurs an elite shooter for at least the next two and a half years.
The Nets’ price tag for Johnson is thought league-wide to be two first-round picks. That feels a bit high to me, so let’s get creative in terms of structure. First, we’ll throw in the Spurs’ own top-six protected 2027 first-round pick. For the second asset, let’s essentially create a situation in which Brooklyn gets to trade up into the middle of the first round in this upcoming draft. The Nets already own four first-round picks this year. The issue, however, is that three of these picks are currently slated to be Nos. 23, 25 and 27. So how about this: Brooklyn trades the worst of the Houston, New York or Milwaukee picks that it owns to San Antonio for the worst of the two first-rounders the Spurs are guaranteed to have this year, in Atlanta’s or their own. That structure for San Antonio gives protection in case of high-end lottery outcomes but also likely gives Brooklyn real value. Currently, that would see the Nets move up essentially from No. 27 to No. 16 in this draft. The difference in value between those two slots (per this handy chart that Kevin Pelton made a few years ago) can be estimated as being equivalent to a late first-round pick. The Nets don’t need another pick this year. No NBA team likes to have five first-round rookies on its roster. But allowing them to move up in the draft? That feels fair as the second asset.
This way, San Antonio doesn’t actually lose a second first-round pick in this deal, but the Nets will likely gain the value equivalent to such a selection while not adding yet another rookie to their roster. It feels like a fun compromise for everyone.
Cameron Johnson could add valuable shooting around Victor Wembanyama in a theoretical Spurs trade. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Why it won’t happen
So far, the Spurs have been very patient in how they’ve built around Wembanyama. Would they want to accelerate that process by moving draft capital for Johnson? That feels like a complicated question given that the team clearly has talent but also isn’t really near its contention window yet. They might just decide to keep their cache of trade assets for a future, bigger deal.
On the Nets side, there are two issues. First, someone just might outbid San Antonio for Johnson and really go for it. The Oklahoma City Thunder, for instance, could decide they want Johnson and do it. I’m skeptical that would happen given the Thunder’s upcoming contract situations, but it’s possible. Second, Brooklyn might not be enthusiastic about getting Keldon Johnson back, given that he has two years left after this on his deal. He’s definitely an NBA rotation player and doesn’t really hinder their long-term flexibility, but teams who have talked to the Nets have felt like they are less interested in taking back long-term salary commitments. I’m a little skeptical that another team would give them expiring money and the kind of draft capital they’d want, but maybe another team goes for it.
• Cleveland Cavaliers trade Isaac Okoro and a second-round pick to Washington
• Golden State Warriors trade Kevon Looney to Cleveland and a second-round pick to Washington
• Washington Wizards trade Anthony Gill to Warriors
Why it makes sense
This deal hits multiple goals for all three teams. For the Cavaliers, the one thing they need most is frontcourt help. Right now, Tristan Thompson is playing serious minutes when either Jarrett Allen or Evan Mobley misses time. Thompson is an awesome guy to have around, but you don’t want to have to play him serious minutes. Enter Looney, a player with championship experience who has shown since being reinserted into the rotation for the Warriors that he can move the ball and rebound at an extremely high level. The Cavaliers lose Okoro, their 2020 top-five pick who has developed into a high-leverage defensive player on the ball. But here’s the thing with Cleveland: It desperately needs to get out of the luxury tax this year. The Cavs are only about $1.7 million away from dodging the tax. For this year, that’s not important, but for their future financial planning, it’s essential. This roster becomes even more expensive next season with Mobley’s extension kicking in. Already, without Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill or Caris LeVert under contract, the team is over $4.5 million over the tax. If Mobley makes All-NBA, that becomes an even bigger issue. Trading Okoro for Looney gets them out of the tax for this year, allows them to avoid the dreaded repeater tax next year and saves money on the books for next year, too, hopefully allowing them to retain a few more of their bench players. That they can also do so while filling a bigger need in the frontcourt? This feels like a win.
For Golden State, the luxury-tax avoidance incentive here is similar but even more difficult. The Warriors are $5.7 million over the luxury-tax line right now. That’s a substantial number to cut midseason, but the Wizards can help them do it here. Because the Wizards have a traded player exception worth over $12 million from the Daniel Gafford trade to Dallas last summer, they can easily take Okoro’s money into that exception. In their statements to the media, the Warriors have made it clear that they’re looking toward the future this deadline. Golden State has paid the tax in six of the last seven years, including each of the last four. This trade would save the Warriors around $20 million total between the tax and salary payments and also allow them to reset the repeater penalties moving forward into the future. That could be an important factor if they want to retain Jonathan Kuminga this summer.
The Wizards get to be the beneficiary of two teams avoiding the luxury tax. Okoro is an NBA rotation player who can help them in their most significant need area. The Wizards have somehow not fielded a defense above league average since 2015-16. This year, they’re dead last in defensive rating, allowing nearly 120 points per 100 possessions. Okoro would enter their rotation immediately and be able to lift their defense on some of the best players in the league. Bilal Coulibaly does a great job doing that for the Wizards for the time he’s on the court, but shifting him off those players more often might actually help allow him to focus more on his offense and grow on that end of the court. They also get two second-round picks (one each from Cleveland and Golden State) for being willing to take on a large sum of money in future payments, as Okoro still has two years left on his deal after this one worth nearly $23 million.
Why it won’t happen
I see a few possible breakdown points. First, maybe the Warriors can find a different way to get out of the tax that doesn’t involve trading Looney. He is a free agent this summer but has been an organizational stalwart for a decade and is known to be a favorite of Steve Kerr. On the Cavaliers side, the team is contending for a title now and has myriad ways to get out of the luxury tax, including moving Georges Niang or Max Strus. Maybe they find a route better than this one, given that Okoro’s ability to take on tough defensive assignments could prove very useful in the playoffs. Finally, the Wizards could just find a better use for their traded player exception than this. I’d be surprised, but it’s very possible given how many teams will be looking to them, Toronto and Detroit as potential third teams in three-team deals.
• Chicago Bulls trade Lonzo Ball to Detroit Pistons for Tim Hardaway Jr. and two second-round picks
Why it makes sense
The Pistons have been terrific recently, creeping up to the top-six race in the Eastern Conference while being led by Cade Cunningham’s outstanding play. However, the team could use another ballhandler who could potentially play in lineups with Cunningham after the team lost Jaden Ivey indefinitely to a broken leg. The benefit to Ball is that he ticks all of the boxes Detroit needs. He’d be an awesome defender for a team that is putting an increased emphasis on that end of the court under J.B. Bickerstaff this season. Particularly, he’s good at fighting through screens and playing in help defense, something the Pistons’ other guards have struggled with this year. He’s an elite decision-maker with incredible basketball IQ and anticipation across the court. He hasn’t made a ton of shots this year, but he gets guarded like he’s a shooter, and his off-ball movement and cutting help to make up for the missed shots. The Bulls are winning their minutes with Ball on the court by 9.5 points per 100 possessions even though they have a losing record. He’d be a serious upgrade on Hardaway as long as he’s healthy.
Most importantly, though, Ball is on an expiring contract and would give the Pistons the same level of flexibility this summer that they currently have. They could look to retain Ball, whose career probably profiles best as a long-term super-sub because of knee injuries that held him out of competition for over 1,000 days. Or, they could merely look at him as a rental for this season and then give the secondary ballhandler role back to Ivey next offseason. But the Pistons should do something to add to their team and try to help them reach the playoffs again, even though it would result in them losing their 2025 first-round pick. Cunningham and company have earned that from the front office.
For Chicago, Ball is on an expiring contract and will be able to leave for nothing in the offseason. The Bulls are theoretically contending for the postseason, but they’re also looking to move many of the players that have them in that mix. This deal would save the Bulls a prorated amount of the $5.2 million there is in salary difference between Hardaway and Ball. They’d also get two second-round picks out of a treasure trove of seconds the Pistons have acquired recently.
Why it won’t happen
This one feels pretty reasonable, but it’ll just come down to two things. First, how do the Pistons evaluate Ball’s medical? That’s a tough call. Second, it requires a decision on how exactly the Pistons decide to use their assets and space. This trade can get done regardless of whether the Pistons decide to use their space ahead of time to take on more money or be a third team that would be able to circuit-break trades. But how much money is ownership willing to take on? We’ll see.
• Chicago Bulls trade Patrick Williams to Phoenix Suns for Jusuf Nurkić
Why it makes sense
This is a classic one-for-one challenge trade that was brought to me by a listener of my show, the Game Theory Podcast. On the surface, it looks absurd. It’s pure chaos in the way I love. But when you dig into it, it actually solves issues for each team. On the Phoenix side, it solves the Nurkić Problem, as the Bosnian big man is currently out of the rotation after a disastrous start to the season. All along, it’s been assumed by executives across NBA front offices that the Suns would need to give up one of their precious few first-round picks to get off Nurkić, all while they’re in the middle of trying to find an answer to upgrade the roster.
Here, they actually don’t have to give up a pick and get to take a chance on Williams rehabbing his stock league-wide as a big wing who can defend and hopefully hit shots. I’m skeptical of Williams as a player and didn’t have nearly as high of a grade on him pre-draft as what the Bulls did back in 2020, but he would be far from the first recent draft pick to leave the Bulls and showcase immediate growth (see: Wendell Carter and Lauri Markkanen). Even though he hasn’t been good this season, he is still only 23 years old and has tools. The deal is nearly cash-neutral for this season, as Williams makes just about $125,000 less than Nurkić. Williams is on the books for three years longer than Nurkić, but Mat Ishbia has never shown a particular worry about cost in cash terms.
On the Bulls’ side, they earn a get-out-of-jail-free card on a Williams deal that already looks like a disaster. In his fifth season, Williams is shooting a career-low from 2-point range by more than 7 percent and a career-low 36.7 percent from 3-point range. He is also posting a career-low mark in rebounds. He has shown no growth offensively this season in Chicago, despite the team having moved on from DeMar DeRozan this offseason and theoretically opened up chances for him. This contract has gone about as badly for the Bulls in its first season as imaginable. He is playing like a minimum-contract-caliber player but is locked onto their books for the next four years after this one at $18 million per season. Yes, to get off the Williams deal, they need to take on Nurkić’s $19.4 million for next season. But they’d be removing $72 million in future salary from their books and get to start fresh in what is shaping up toward a desperate need to rebuild.
Phoenix would like to find an answer to its Jusuf Nurkić problem. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
Why it won’t happen
In a word: pride. NBA executives are prideful people, and it’s hard for them to admit mistakes because they tend to believe more in the players they take than other executives. It’s especially hard to admit mistakes when you’ve doubled down on them like Bulls president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas has in both surprisingly drafting Williams at No. 4 in 2020 as well as choosing to give him that extension this past summer. This trade would genuinely help Chicago’s long-term goals, as Williams’ contract is massively underwater just six months after he signed it, but it’s the kind of trade that just never happens league-wide.
The Bulls could just as easily choose to bet on Williams rehabbing his stock in Chicago as opposed to elsewhere. But to do that, they’re going to have to keep playing him, and the results to this point haven’t been positive. In Phoenix, he’d at least get to come off the bench and not be pressed into action immediately. In Chicago, that would be seen as a demotion and would likely hurt Williams’s standing league-wide even more.
On the Phoenix side, maybe this is where Ishbia would decide to make his stand on not taking on future money and would instead just rather deal a first-round pick to move Nurkić.
• LA Clippers trade P.J. Tucker and a second-round pick to Portland
• Houston Rockets trade Jock Landale to LA and a second-round pick to Portland
• Portland Trail Blazers trade Robert Williams III to Houston
Why it makes sense
The ultimate goal of this deal is to reunite Williams with Ime Udoka in Houston. Udoka’s lone season as head coach in Boston is when Williams made second-team All-Defense and was arguably the best per-minute defender in the NBA. Williams has dealt with injuries since then, including this season. However, when he’s been on the court, his impact remains clear. He’s an awesome screener and does a good job of creating plays for his teammates as a short-roll passer. He can roll all the way to the rim and finish effectively. Defensively, his instincts are still top-notch, and he impacts the game as a ball-screen defender, with the ability to show and recover or play in drop coverage. Steven Adams has gotten better as the season has gone on for the Rockets and been a solid backup center, but when healthy, Williams would be an upgrade — especially in the playoffs for Houston — because of his defensive versatility. On top of that, neither has exactly played a full schedule so far. Adams has played 30 games, and Williams only 17. Udoka could expect to have at least one of them each night and could mix and match depending on matchups when they’re both available. Then, with Adams being a free agent this offseason, Williams could potentially step into the full-time backup role next offseason if his health allows.
For the Clippers, they kill two birds with one stone here. First, they get another option at backup center in Landale. Currently, they’re playing Mo Bamba real minutes, and he’s unsurprisingly been unable to truly grasp the spot. Landale is physical and tough and knows where he’s supposed to be. He’s not the best athlete, but he would give them something different than what Bamba brings. He’s more capable than a difference-maker, but a capable option might be enough to help the Clippers. More importantly, though, Landale only makes $8 million and has two non-guaranteed years after this one. The $3.5 million difference in salary between Landale and Tucker, who heads to Portland in this deal, is enough to get the Clippers under the luxury-tax line. For that help, they send a second-round pick to Portland.
Portland actually subtracts money off its books in this deal by trading Williams for Tucker and acquires two second-rounders for Williams. If Williams had proven himself healthier this season, the Blazers could have gotten more for him. However, the team needs to open up minutes for lottery pick Donovan Clingan, and I find it difficult to believe they’ll be able to find a taker for Deandre Ayton.
Why it won’t happen
The biggest factor here is the medicals on Williams. Will the Rockets’ front office clear Williams enough to make this deal? At this price point where they’re only giving up a second-round pick, it feels like the risk is worth it. However, with an extra year on his deal, if the Rockets have concerns, they might not want to make this swap.
For the Clippers, they have other ways they can get under the tax. They could deal Bones Hyland attached to a second-round pick into someone’s traded player exception or into their cap space. If they don’t have a particularly positive grade on Landale as a player, they could easily just look elsewhere.
In the Blazers’ case, if they think they could get more for Williams by letting him play out the rest of the year and waiting until the summer to deal him, that could be worthwhile. That would be risky, though, given Williams’ injury history. It would also continue to clog up the center position and give them fewer minutes to Clingan to help him develop.
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(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; top photos: Tyler Kaufman, Fernando Medina, Melissa Tamez, Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
