Tag: Pitching

Last year, the right-hander we had at the top of this always-deep Top 10 prospects list went on to win the National League Rookie of the Year, as Pirates flamethrower Paul Skenes went from No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft to top rookie in the NL a year later.

Now we’re looking to go 2-for-2. With the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes coming to an end and the Japanese phenom choosing the Dodgers, he vaults to the very top of this year’s Top 10 right-handed pitchers list. Since he’ll presumably step right into L.A.’s rotation, there’s even less of a question about whether he’ll contend for top rookie honors than with Skenes, who did not have an Opening Day roster spot waiting for him.

TOP 100 PROSPECTS
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While Skenes obviously graduated, the No. 2 pitcher on the list has stayed the same the past two years, though we fully expect Jackson Jobe — an American League ROY candidate himself — to graduate this season. He’s joined by holdovers Andrew Painter, Chase Dollander and Rhett Lowder. Bubba Chandler was last year’s “keep an eye on” candidate, and he lived up to the billing, climbing up to No. 4 on this year’s list.

The Reds and Rangers have multiple prospects on the list, though that’s not unusual. At least one organization has put at least two top 10 right-handed pitching prospects on this list every year dating back to 2019 (the Marlins had three in 2022), and two teams had two reps apiece back in 2021 (Tigers and Mariners) and 2023 (Phillies and Dodgers).

Always an exciting list, this year’s is a bit top-heavy with very strong mound representation on the Top 100 list. But it’s not quite as deep as it’s been in past years, with the 19 right-handers total on the overall list representing an all-time low since we switched from a Top 50 to a Top 100.

Fastball: Sasaki, Jobe, Painter, Chandler (70)
Sasaki has been up to 102 mph in the past, but his velocity was down a little bit in 2024, averaging just 97 mph (compared to 99 in 2023). Jobe’s heater sat 95-97 mph and touched 99-100 with excellent run and rise metrics. Painter’s fastball command was a little inconsistent during his Arizona Fall League return, understandable following a two-year layoff, but there’s plenty of confidence he’ll land the upper-90s pitch in the zone going forward. The metrics on Chandler’s upper-90s heater are very impressive.

Curve: Burns, Rocker (60)
The scary thing is that this isn’t the better of two breaking balls for both Burns and Rocker. Burns’ curve is slower than his slider, thrown in the low 80s, and he throws it a lot less, but he still got a 58 percent whiff rate with the pitch at Wake Forest last year.

Slider: Jobe, Burns, Rocker (70)
Jobe’s slider averages around 2,900 rpm with a ton of sweep, with executives naming it the best secondary offering among prospects in MLB Pipeline’s 2025 executive survey. Burns finished second and Rocker fourth in that voting, with Burns’ slider eliciting a 64 percent whiff rate at Wake Forest last year and Rocker’s mid-80s breaker featuring two-plane depth generating a 66 percent swing-and-miss rate in the upper Minors and Majors last year.

Changeup: Jobe, Sproat (60)
Jobe’s offspeed option took a big step forward when he switched to more of a splitter grip. It has lots of armside run and separation from his fastball. Sproat throws his cambio in the upper 80s and also gets the right amount of separation and fade to make the pitch very effective against lefties.

Splitter: Sasaki (80)
This pitch is so good it gets its own category. His 89-90 mph splitter gets top-of-the-scale marks from scouts because it has velocity and depth. In 2024, it generated a 57 percent swing-and-miss rate in Japan.

Control: Painter, Lowder (65)
Outside of a little spotty fastball command, Painter was back to his impressive self in the Fall League, throwing four excellent pitches for strikes, and his 2.3 BB/9 rate in Arizona is right in line with the 2.1 ratio he’s posted in his pro career to date. Lowder walked just 2.3 per nine in his college career (1.8 in his junior season) and did more of the same during his first season of pro ball, with a 2.0 BB/9 rate in the Minors last year.

Highest ceiling: Sasaki
He has the potential for three plus pitches and plus control of all three, with his fastball getting a 70 grade and his splitter the rare-to-find 80 on the scouting scale. There’s a reason why teams were clamoring to sign him.

Highest floor: Lowder
Kind of like Skenes a year ago, you could argue that Sasaki should run these first three categories, but we’ll mix it up. And we’ll use the same guy as last year in Lowder. It’s hard not to feel certain that he will be, at the very least, a big league rotation mainstay for a very long time.

Rookie of the Year candidate: Sasaki
We’ve been saying all along that he’d be a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year honors no matter where he signed. Executives polled said the same thing, as just over 79 percent agreed he’d be the favorite to win in whatever league he landed in.

Highest riser & humblest beginning: Rosario
In a list of first-round picks, big bonuses and that very large international signing, Rosario really stands out. He went unselected out of high school in the shortened 2020 Draft, then struggled at the University of Miami. The Rangers took him in the fifth round in 2023, signed him for slot ($437,900) and helped him remake his delivery and pitch mix. It clearly worked as he went from not being on the club’s Top 30 at the start of the 2024 season to this spot among the game’s best right-handed pitching prospects.

Most to prove: Rocker
It’s been quite the saga for Rocker, dating back to his initial 2021 Draft year, when the Mets pulled out of their offer following a medical review of his elbow and shoulder. After going No. 3 overall a year later to the Rangers, he blew out his elbow in May 2023 and had Tommy John surgery. He certainly looked like the real deal upon his return last year, dominating in the Minors and making his big league debut. But he only threw 48 1/3 innings, and only has 76 1/3 IP on his professional résumé to date, so he has to show he can take the ball every five days and stick in a big league rotation.

Keep an eye on: Travis Sykora, Nationals
Sykora had one of the best prep power arms in the 2023 Draft class and slid to the third round because of signability issues, joining the Nats in the third round for an over-slot bonus of $2.6 million. He had better feel for pitching in his first full season with Single-A Fredericksburg, walking just 2.9 per nine while striking out 13.7 and posting a 2.33 ERA. The organization eased him into pro ball with just 85 innings for the year, so it’s easy to imagine him really popping as the gloves come off.