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Tag: Probability
Doomsday Clock ticks forward to 89 seconds to midnight: ‘Probability of global disaster’
The clock is ticking on humanity.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved its Doomsday Clock forward for 2025, announcing that it is now set to 89 seconds to midnight –— the closest it’s ever been to catastrophe.
The terrifying news was revealed Tuesday morning in Washington, DC after deliberation by the organization’s Security Board and Board of Sponsors, which includes nine Nobel Laureates.
Last year, the clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight.
“Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster,” chair Daniel Holz declared.
For 2025, multiple global threats were considered when deciding the clock’s time, including the proliferation of nuclear weapons, disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, bio-threats, and the continued climate crisis.
Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later as a metaphor for how close humanity is to destroying itself.
In 1947, the Doomsday Clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has reset its 78-year-old Doomsday Clock. Getty Images The clock functions as a call-to-action to find ways to resolve “the world’s most urgent, man-made existential threats” and move the hands further away from midnight.
When deciding the time, the board members are asked two questions: Is humanity safer or at greater risk this year compared to last year? And, is humanity safer or at greater risk compared to the more than 75 years the clock has been set?
The clock was created using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). Midnight is the time that represents Doomsday.
Factors such as nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies and biosecurity are taken into account when determining the clock’s setting.
In a statement this year, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explained their reasons for moving the clock up by one second.
“In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe,” they stated. “Trends that have deeply concerned the Science and Security Board continued, and despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course.”
Created in 1947, the Doomsday Clock is a metaphor for how close humanity is to destroying itself. SCOTT OLSONSCOTT OLSON/AFP/Getty Images Disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence were taken into consideration for the Doomsday Clock. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration In 2020, the clock was set at 100 seconds to midnight.
The Doomsday Clock, a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to global catastrophe, has just moved forward to 89 seconds to midnight. This marks the closest the clock has ever been to midnight, signaling a high probability of global disaster.The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the organization responsible for maintaining the Doomsday Clock, cited escalating nuclear tensions, climate change, and the spread of disinformation as key factors in their decision to move the clock closer to midnight.
The implications of this move are dire, highlighting the urgent need for global cooperation and action to address the pressing issues facing our world. It serves as a stark reminder that time is running out and that we must act decisively to prevent a catastrophic outcome.
As the clock ticks forward, it is a wake-up call for all of us to take responsibility and work towards a more secure and sustainable future for generations to come. The stakes are high, but together we can make a difference and ensure that the hands of the Doomsday Clock are moved back before it’s too late.
Tags:
- Doomsday Clock
- Global disaster
- 89 seconds to midnight
- Global catastrophe
- World crisis
- Climate change
- Nuclear threat
- Armageddon
- World War III
- End of the world
#Doomsday #Clock #ticks #seconds #midnight #Probability #global #disaster
Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction (Wiley Series in Probability and Statis
Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction (Wiley Series in Probability and Statis
Price : 76.24
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tics)Machine learning is a rapidly growing field that has revolutionized industries ranging from healthcare to finance to marketing. In essence, machine learning is the process of teaching computers to recognize patterns in data and make decisions based on those patterns.
The Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics is proud to present a concise introduction to machine learning. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of machine learning, including key concepts such as supervised and unsupervised learning, decision trees, neural networks, and more.
Readers will learn how machine learning algorithms work, how to train and test models, and how to evaluate the performance of a machine learning system. The book also covers advanced topics such as deep learning, reinforcement learning, and natural language processing.
Whether you are a student looking to gain a foundational understanding of machine learning or a professional seeking to enhance your skills, this book is an essential resource. With clear explanations, practical examples, and real-world applications, Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction is the perfect starting point for anyone interested in this exciting field.
#Machine #Learning #Concise #Introduction #Wiley #Series #Probability #Statis,machine learning: an applied mathematics introductionProbability with R: An Introduction with Computer Science Applications
Price:$121.95– $95.91
(as of Jan 19,2025 08:26:54 UTC – Details)
Publisher : Wiley; 2nd edition (January 22, 2020)
Language : English
Hardcover : 496 pages
ISBN-10 : 1119536944
ISBN-13 : 978-1119536949
Item Weight : 2.02 pounds
Dimensions : 6.2 x 1.2 x 9.2 inches
In this post, we will delve into the world of probability with R, a powerful programming language widely used in computer science. Probability is a fundamental concept in mathematics and computer science that plays a crucial role in decision-making, data analysis, and machine learning.We will start by introducing the basic concepts of probability, such as sample spaces, events, and probability distributions. We will then explore how to calculate probabilities using R, including generating random numbers, calculating probabilities of events, and simulating random processes.
Next, we will discuss common probability distributions in computer science, such as the uniform distribution, normal distribution, and binomial distribution. We will show how to use R to generate random numbers from these distributions and calculate probabilities associated with them.
Finally, we will demonstrate how probability is used in various computer science applications, such as Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian inference, and machine learning algorithms. We will provide examples and code snippets in R to illustrate these concepts and show how to apply them in practice.
By the end of this post, you will have a solid understanding of probability theory and how to use R to analyze and solve probability problems in computer science. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced programmer, this post will help you enhance your skills and knowledge in probability with R. Stay tuned for more insights and practical examples!
#Probability #Introduction #Computer #Science #Applications,machine learning: an applied mathematics introductionAn Elementary Introduction to Statistical Learning Theory (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics Book 853)
Price: $67.99
(as of Jan 18,2025 22:24:39 UTC – Details)
ASIN : B007WU87CE
Publisher : Wiley; 1st edition (April 20, 2012)
Publication date : April 20, 2012
Language : English
File size : 5427 KB
Text-to-Speech : Enabled
Screen Reader : Supported
Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
X-Ray : Not Enabled
Word Wise : Not Enabled
Print length : 356 pages
Are you interested in delving into the world of statistical learning theory, but find the topic overwhelming or intimidating? Fear not, as “An Elementary Introduction to Statistical Learning Theory” is here to guide you through the fundamentals in a clear and concise manner.Written by renowned experts in the field, this book from the Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics provides a gentle introduction to the principles and techniques behind statistical learning theory. Whether you are a beginner or simply looking to refresh your knowledge, this book offers a solid foundation for understanding the key concepts and applications in this fascinating field.
With easy-to-follow explanations, illustrative examples, and practical exercises, “An Elementary Introduction to Statistical Learning Theory” will help you grasp the essential concepts and tools needed to analyze and interpret data effectively. So, if you’re ready to embark on your journey into the world of statistical learning theory, this book is the perfect starting point for your exploration.
#Elementary #Introduction #Statistical #Learning #Theory #Wiley #Series #Probability #Statistics #Book,machine learning: an applied mathematics introductionBayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks
Price:$39.99– $27.93
(as of Jan 17,2025 01:39:10 UTC – Details)
From the Publisher
‘Excellent’
“An excellent introduction to subjects critical to all data scientists.”
—insideBIGDATA
‘Engaging’
“An engaging introduction . . . the book introduces Bayesian methods in a clear and concise manner, without assuming prior statistical knowledge and, for the most part, eschewing formulations. . . . quite suitable for a crash course in applied Bayesian statistics.”
—Jose D. Perezgonzalez, Frontiers in Psychology
‘Fantastic’
“This is one of the best (and only) introductory statistics books I’ve seen . . . it’s a fantastic read.”
—Chelsea Parlett-Pelleriti, Technical Reviewer
About the Author
Will Kurt currently works as a data scientist at Wayfair, and has been using Bayesian statistics to solve real business problems for over half a decade. He frequently blogs about probability on his website, CountBayesie.com. Kurt is the author of Get Programming with Haskell (Manning Publications) and lives in Boston, Massachusetts.
Who Should Read This Book
The only requirement of this book is basic high school algebra. If you flip forward, you’ll see a few instances of math, but nothing particularly onerous. We’ll be using a bit of code written in the R programming language, which I’ll provide and talk through, so there’s no need to have learned R beforehand. We’ll also touch on calculus, but again no prior experience is required, and the appendixes will give you enough information to cover what you’ll need.
About the Publisher
No Starch Press has published the finest in geek entertainment since 1994, creating both timely and timeless titles like Python Crash Course, Python for Kids, How Linux Works, and Hacking: The Art of Exploitation. An independent, San Francisco-based publishing company, No Starch Press focuses on a curated list of well-crafted books that make a difference. They publish on many topics, including computer programming, cybersecurity, operating systems, and LEGO. The titles have personality, the authors are passionate experts, and all the content goes through extensive editorial and technical reviews. Long known for its fun, fearless approach to technology, No Starch Press has earned wide support from STEM enthusiasts worldwide.
Publisher : No Starch Press; Illustrated edition (July 9, 2019)
Language : English
Paperback : 256 pages
ISBN-10 : 1593279566
ISBN-13 : 978-1593279561
Item Weight : 1.1 pounds
Dimensions : 7.06 x 0.65 x 9.25 inchesCustomers say
Customers find the book provides a good introduction to Bayesian statistics using examples to clarify key concepts. They describe it as an enjoyable, entertaining read that helps develop an understanding of the topics. The text is clear and easy to understand, with fluid writing that doesn’t get too wordy.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
Are you tired of boring statistics textbooks and confusing probability problems? Fear not, because Bayesian Statistics can be fun and engaging with a little help from Star Wars, LEGO, and rubber ducks!In this post, we will explore the world of Bayesian Statistics through the lens of our favorite intergalactic saga, Star Wars. Imagine using the Force to predict the probability of your favorite character winning a lightsaber duel, or using Bayesian inference to estimate the odds of the Empire catching the Rebel Alliance.
But that’s not all – we will also dive into the world of LEGO, where building blocks represent different data points and probabilities. You can create your own LEGO models to visualize complex statistical concepts and test hypotheses in a hands-on, interactive way.
And let’s not forget about the rubber ducks – a classic tool for teaching probability and decision-making. By conducting experiments with rubber ducks, you can learn about the principles of Bayesian reasoning and make informed predictions about future outcomes.
So grab your lightsaber, gather your LEGO bricks, and line up your rubber ducks – it’s time to make statistics and probability fun with Bayesian Statistics the fun way! May the Force be with you as you embark on this statistical adventure.
#Bayesian #Statistics #Fun #Understanding #Statistics #Probability #Star #Wars #LEGO #Rubber #Ducks,machine learning: an applied mathematics introduction
Oklahoma vs. Alabama odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch
The Oklahoma Sooners and Alabama Crimson Tide are preparing for what should be an incredible clash on the hardwood between two freshly-minted conference rivals in the SEC.
Oklahoma is 13-0 on the season, but they’ve yet to be tested the way they will against Alabama. In their last game, the Sooners defeated Prairie View by 22 points.
As for the Crimson Tide, they’ve bounced back from two tough losses they suffered in November, advising to 11-2 on the season. With that in mind, here’s how a variety of different outlets believe their showdown with Oklahoma will go on Saturday evening.
Odds for Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Coming into the game, Alabama is an 11.5-point favorite over Oklahoma, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Crimson Tide are also currently listed at -800 for the money-line, right now, while the Sooners are sitting at +540.
The point total for the game is currently set at 166.5 points. It’s certainly feasible that these two teams reach that number when they face off, and all the chips are pushed to the center of the table.
Final score predictions for Oklahoma vs. Alabama
BPI Predicted winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted point differential: 10.1
BPI Win probability (for Alabama): 83.5%
BPI Matchup Quality: 83.1ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 10.1 points in Alabama’s favor. It also gives the Crimson Tide an 83.5 percent chance to win the game over the Sooners.
BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 83.1, which is the among the best scores of the day for this college basketball slate.
KenPom Predicted final score: Alabama 88, Oklahoma 78
KenPom Win probability (for Alabama): 80 percentKenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Alabama and Oklahoma, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Crimson Tide to capture the dub.
How to watch Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Tuscaloosa, AlabamaAlabama and Oklahoma are set to tip off at 6:00 p.m. EST. It will also be played at the Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, with a rocking crowd expected on hand for this one.
For fans outside of Alabama, the game can be watched on SEC Network. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option for a free trial.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watchThe highly anticipated matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Alabama Crimson Tide is set to take place soon, and fans are eagerly awaiting the outcome. Here is everything you need to know about the game:
Current Line:
According to sportsbooks, Alabama is favored to win the game, with a current line of -7.5 points. This means that they are expected to win by more than a touchdown.Win Probability:
Based on statistical analysis and expert opinions, Alabama has a higher win probability in this matchup. However, anything can happen on game day, so the outcome is far from certain.Final Score Prediction:
While it’s tough to predict the final score of a college football game with absolute certainty, many experts believe that Alabama will come out on top with a score of around 35-28. However, the game could easily go in favor of the underdog, so fans will have to wait and see.How to Watch:
The game will be broadcast on a major sports network, so fans can tune in to watch the action unfold. Additionally, there may be live streams available online for those who prefer to watch from the comfort of their own home.Overall, the Oklahoma vs. Alabama matchup is sure to be a thrilling and competitive game that will keep fans on the edge of their seats. Be sure to tune in and support your favorite team!
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Oklahoma vs. Alabama odds, Oklahoma vs. Alabama current line, Oklahoma vs. Alabama win probability, Oklahoma vs. Alabama final score prediction, how to watch Oklahoma vs. Alabama
#Oklahoma #Alabama #odds #Current #line #win #probability #final #score #prediction #watch
High probability of snow and difficult travel Sunday into Monday
BOZEMAN – A good looking Pacific storm with ample moisture is pushing through the Pacific NW and heading into the Northern Rockies Sunday afternoon.
This storm has a high probability of moderate to heavy wet mountain snow across most of SW Montana with the higher snow totals likely to be east of the divide especially in the Madison and Gallatin Ranges and over into the Island Park, ID and up into the Absaroka Beartooth Range.
These areas are under a WINTER STORM WARNING through late Monday morning and some through early Monday evening. Bozeman Pass is included in the Winter Storm Warning area as well as Big Sky to West Yellowstone to Raynolds Pass and again into Island Park, ID.
Snow accumulations will be varied in the warning areas but in general 6”-12” or more is possible.
Winter Weather Advisories are up for the Gallatin Valley from 5 pm Sunday to 11 am Monday. 1”-3” of snow is possible for the Bozeman area. There is a slight chance or rain changing to snow early Sunday evening. Look for possible snow-covered and icy road conditions for your Monday morning commute.
Winter Weather Advisory is up for the Butte-Blackfoot Region (Anaconda, Deer Lodge, MacDonald Pass, to Missoula) through 2 pm Monday. 1”-3” of snow is likely with localized areas picking up to 6” of snow. This will create difficult travel conditions Sunday night into Monday especially for Homestake Pass, MacDonald Pass, Georgetown Lake, Boulder Hill and Elk Park.
With a winter storm on the horizon, meteorologists are predicting a high probability of snow and difficult travel conditions on Sunday into Monday.The storm is expected to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds, creating hazardous driving conditions and potential delays for travelers. It is important to stay updated on weather forecasts and road conditions, and to take necessary precautions if you must travel during this time.
Make sure to have emergency supplies in your car, such as blankets, a flashlight, and non-perishable food and water. Avoid driving if possible, and if you must be on the roads, drive slowly and cautiously.
Stay safe and stay informed as we prepare for this winter storm. Remember, it’s better to be safe than sorry.
Tags:
- Snowstorm warning
- Severe weather alert
- Winter travel advisory
- Snow accumulation forecast
- Hazardous road conditions
- Snowstorm preparation tips
- Travel safety tips
- Winter weather update
- Snowstorm impact on travel
- Weather advisory for Sunday and Monday
#High #probability #snow #difficult #travel #Sunday #Monday
Statistical Methods for Forecasting (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)
Statistical Methods for Forecasting (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)
Price :314.99– 121.00
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Statistical Methods for Forecasting: A Comprehensive Guide from the Wiley Series in Probability and StatisticsAre you looking to improve your forecasting skills and make more accurate predictions? Look no further than the Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, specifically the book “Statistical Methods for Forecasting.” This comprehensive guide offers a detailed look at various statistical methods used in forecasting, providing readers with the knowledge and tools needed to make informed decisions and predictions.
From time series analysis to regression models and beyond, this book covers a wide range of statistical techniques that can be applied to forecasting in various fields such as finance, economics, marketing, and more. The authors provide clear explanations, real-world examples, and practical advice on how to implement these methods effectively.
Whether you are a student, researcher, or professional in need of reliable forecasting techniques, this book is a valuable resource that will help you improve your forecasting accuracy and make better decisions. Don’t miss out on this essential guide from the Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics – get your copy today and start forecasting with confidence!
#Statistical #Methods #Forecasting #Wiley #Series #Probability #Statistics
Essential Math for AI: Exploring Linear Algebra, Probability and Statistics, Calculus, Graph Theory, Discrete Mathematics, Numerical Methods, Optimization Techniques, and More (AI Fundamentals)
Price: $14.99
(as of Dec 28,2024 01:01:11 UTC – Details)
From the Publisher
Publisher : Book Bound Studios (November 13, 2023)
Language : English
Paperback : 158 pages
ISBN-10 : 1923045865
ISBN-13 : 978-1923045866
Item Weight : 7.7 ounces
Dimensions : 6 x 0.36 x 9 inchesCustomers say
Customers find the book’s explanations of fundamental mathematical concepts and practical examples helpful for understanding how math fits into AI. They learn how to optimize AI models, understand data, and explore advanced techniques that improve performance. The book covers a breadth of essential topics, including linear algebra, probability, calculus, graph theory, and more. Opinions differ on the reading experience – some find it engaging and informative, while others feel the authorial voice makes it difficult to engage with the text on a personal level.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
In order to understand and succeed in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), it is essential to have a strong foundation in mathematics. From linear algebra to calculus, probability and statistics to graph theory, discrete mathematics to numerical methods, and optimization techniques, these mathematical concepts form the backbone of AI algorithms and models.Linear algebra is crucial for understanding how data is represented and manipulated in AI systems. Probability and statistics are used to analyze and interpret data, making informed decisions based on patterns and trends. Calculus is necessary for optimizing AI algorithms and models, ensuring efficiency and accuracy.
Graph theory plays a key role in analyzing complex relationships and structures within data sets. Discrete mathematics provides the tools for solving combinatorial problems and optimizing algorithms. Numerical methods are used to solve complex mathematical problems efficiently and accurately.
Optimization techniques are essential for fine-tuning AI models and algorithms to achieve the desired outcomes. By mastering these mathematical concepts, AI practitioners can develop and implement cutting-edge AI solutions that push the boundaries of what is possible.
In this post, we will explore the essential math concepts for AI, delving into each topic in detail and highlighting their importance in the field of Artificial Intelligence. Stay tuned for a deep dive into the world of AI fundamentals!
#Essential #Math #Exploring #Linear #Algebra #Probability #Statistics #Calculus #Graph #Theory #Discrete #Mathematics #Numerical #Methods #Optimization #Techniques #Fundamentals
A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition (Stochastic Modelling and Applied Probability)
Price:$139.99– $110.54
(as of Dec 27,2024 10:32:34 UTC – Details)
A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition: Exploring Stochastic Modelling and Applied ProbabilityPattern recognition is a fundamental problem in many fields, from computer vision to speech recognition to biology. While traditional methods of pattern recognition often rely on deterministic algorithms, a probabilistic approach can provide more robust and flexible solutions.
In the book “A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition” by Luc Devroye, Laszlo Györfi, and Gabor Lugosi, the authors delve into the world of stochastic modelling and applied probability to explore how probabilistic methods can be used to improve pattern recognition algorithms.
The book covers topics such as Bayesian decision theory, mixture models, and kernel methods, providing a comprehensive overview of the probabilistic techniques that underlie modern pattern recognition systems. By incorporating uncertainty into the pattern recognition process, probabilistic methods can better handle noisy data, adapt to changing environments, and provide more accurate predictions.
Whether you are a researcher looking to deepen your understanding of pattern recognition or a practitioner seeking to improve the performance of your algorithms, “A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition” offers valuable insights into the power of stochastic modelling and applied probability in the field.
#Probabilistic #Theory #Pattern #Recognition #Stochastic #Modelling #Applied #Probability
