Tag: Props

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA’s official injury report.

Today’s Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Timberwolves at Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-102)

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel south to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight — a sight Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be happy to see. SGA has averaged 33.7 points per game against the Wolves over the last three seasons, putting him in position to go over 31.5 points tonight.

SGA enters tonight’s game averaging 31.3 points across 34.6 minutes per game. He’s gone for at least 32 points in 13 of 31 games on the year, but he’s been at his best against the league’s top defenses. Gilgeous-Alexander has gone for 32 points in eight of 12 games against top-10 defenses, averaging 32.3 per game.

The Timberwolves are sixth in defensive rating entering Tuesday, and they’ve permitted the fewest points per game to opposing PGs. But they’re middle-of-the-pack in points allowed to SGs, and Shai’s put together a stellar resume against them. Over the last three years, SGA has scored at least 32 points in all seven matchups with Minnesota.

With 41, 45, 22, and 35 points over his last four games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is well-positioned to go over 31.5 points in a matchup he’s historically thrived in.

Cavaliers at Lakers

Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists (+120)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a healthy 116.5-point implied team total against the Los Angeles Lakers‘ 21st-ranked defense, making this a team to target in the prop market. With LA struggling to defend across the board, this is a spot to target the over on Donovan Mitchell‘s 5.5 assists prop.

Mitchell enters Tuesday’s action averaging 4.6 assists per game — down from last year’s 6.2 but still enough to give him the second-highest assist rate (17.5%) of his career.

That’s helped him crack 6 assists in 11 of 31 games this season — a number that could rise in such a plus matchup against LA.

The Lakers are allowing the 12th-most points and sixth-most assists this season, and they’ve been especially tormented by opposing guards. According to Fantasy Pros, Los Angles has surrendered the fourth-most assists to points guards and shooting guards.

Mitchell, meanwhile, has been a solid distributor against the league’s lesser defenses — even if his assist numbers don’t show it. Though he’s only averaging 4.8 assists against teams in the bottom half for defensive rating, that’s come alongside 9.5 potential assists per game — just .2 less than Darius Garland, who’s averaged 6.7 assists in that same split.

In a good matchup, I like the Cavaliers to make good on Mitchell’s playmaking, helping him go over 5.5 assists.

Grizzlies at Suns

Under 236.5 (-110)

Tonight’s Memphis Grizzlies–Phoenix Suns matchup may have Tuesday’s highest over/under, but it’s a tick too high considering how slow the Suns play and how banged up the Grizzlies are. As such, this is a spot we can look at under 236.5 total points.

Now, Memphis leads the league in pace and scoring, plus they’re 20th in scoring defense. And while they will be without leading scorer Ja Morant, the Grizzlies haven’t struggled to score in his absence. They’re averaging 123.5 points across 13 games sans Morant — right in line with their season-average (123.4).

But the Suns present a unique challenge for this hobbled Grizzlies squad. Phoenix is just 15th in scoring, and they’re a mere 18th in scoring defense. However, the Suns play at the league’s eighth slowest pace, so possessions could be at a premium tonight.

That’s especially true given how Phoenix has played with this current roster alignment. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal all sharing the floor without Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns have what would be the league’s slowest pace and a borderline top-10 defensive rating, according to Fantasy Labs.

On top of that, we’ve seen Memphis struggle against slower-paced teams. In seven games against bottom-10 pace teams, the Grizzlies are averaging 117.6 points per game — down significantly from their season-average. Only two of those seven games finished with more than 236.5 total points.

The Suns could do enough with Devin Booker back to push this over, but they haven’t been an especially high-flying offense with their three stars all healthy. And with Memphis down three of their top-six scorers, I’m not expecting as many points as the market.

numberFire’s NBA projections only project 230 points in this one, so I’ll happily back the model and take under 236.5 here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.