Tag: Race

When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.

There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.

Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.

We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.

The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.

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Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).

Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).

Press play or drag the slider on the chart below to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.

MVP voting closes before playoff results are known, so we can’t make a full evaluation. We do not even know whether Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals (29th in EPA on defense/special teams) will finish with a winning record, let alone reach the postseason. Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 despite ranking 24th in EPA on defense/special teams, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning. Allen is expected to sit most of the Bills’ finale, while Burrow and Jackson could add to their resumes.

Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a Week 11 to 15 stretch that saw Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and win at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Weeks 11 and 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.

That stretch is fresher and more relevant to the current discussion than a Week 4 to 5 run featuring Baltimore’s victories over Buffalo (35-10) and Cincinnati (41-38). We’ll take the full season into account here.

As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.

Establishing basic MVP credentials for the leading QB candidates

Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVPs since 2000.

Through 16 games, those QBs averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia.

They averaged 40 total touchdowns with 11 turnovers.

They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneeldowns.

Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (2015 Cam Newton).

Assessing MVP-caliber performance frequency: Advantage, Jackson?

As noted, those 10 quarterbacks with 21 MVP seasons since 2000 averaged 0.27 EPA per play when kneeldowns are excluded.

The table below stacks Jackson, Allen and Burrow by their best to worst EPA per play for each of their 16 starts this season.

Jackson met the MVP threshold of +0.27 EPA per play 11 times, compared to eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.

Jackson accounts for seven of the top 14 single-game figures.

Median ranks for their 48 single-game figures: 20th for Jackson, 23rd for Allen, 30th for Burrow.

This is one way to get a feel for consistency.

The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at the historic MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not.

The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen, compared to 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.

This suggests Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.

Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.

Trading places: Burrow overtakes Jackson atop Betrayal Index, but wins less frequently

If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense/special teams to win, refreshing the Betrayal Index can help.

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Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record (11-5, compared to 8-8 for Burrow), which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has had worse than an 11-5 record from a win percentage standpoint.

The table below shows all 32 current quarterbacks with at least eight starts this season. It stacks them by the difference between where these players rank among each other in QB EPA per start, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts. Dallas has two players on the chart. Cleveland has none.

High-producing QBs with weak defenses/special teams rise to the top. These are the most “betrayed” quarterbacks. Burrow and Jackson lead the way.

The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa are close behind Burrow and Jackson, something for their teams to consider when making full-season evaluations.

QBs appearing in the middle of the Betrayal Index rank about the same in QB EPA and team defense/special teams EPA, whether good or bad. That’s how Jordan Love (good QB EPA, good team defense/special teams EPA) and Gardner Minshew II (bad, bad) appear in close proximity.

Low-producing QBs with strong defenses/special teams fall to the bottom. It’s striking to see the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud lagging to such a degree.

Taking this another step with our QB MVP frontrunners, the table below shows just how many games Jackson, Allen and Burrow have played with strong, average and weak support from their defenses/special teams.

Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game, but Jackson has had more overall games with below-average support. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory. The figure is 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.

Jackson is 6-3 when the Ravens’ combined EPA on defense/special teams was -7.0 or worse. Allen is 3-2 in those games. Burrow lags at 1-6, including 1-3 in games similar to the ones Jackson played in.

Why Barkley should be considered

Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club.

The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.

Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.

Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49 percent, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.

But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.

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For decades, the organization has embraced analytics, which have affirmed that passing is the key to winning. Philly has hired only offensive-minded coaches over the past 25 years: Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson and now Nick Sirianni. Most of them were oriented toward the pass.

From 2000 through last season, the Eagles ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass in generally neutral situations: early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining exert more influence on play calling. They were eighth on the Cook Index last season — naturally inclined to pass first.

Philly has a highly paid quarterback in Jalen Hurts and two highly paid elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The offensive coordinator the Eagles hired before this season, Kellen Moore, was known primarily as a pass-oriented play caller.

But this team, with this dual-threat quarterback and this offensive line, appears much better when it runs the ball enough to reduce exposure to the dropback passing game. Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity Hurts and the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.

The Eagles rank 25th on the Cook Index this season. Hurts is attempting about seven fewer passes per game. There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season).

The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.

Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.

(Photo of Lamar Jackson, right, and Josh Allen: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)