Tag: Race

Happy New Year! We’re nearly at the midway point of the NBA season, and a lot has changed since the last time we checked in on the awards race.

Today, let’s take a look specifically at MVP. In my opinion, there are three serious contenders vying for first place: former multi-time winners Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo, plus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking for his first trophy. Everyone else is more likely fighting for fourth or fifth place, unless something dramatically changes soon.

And things could. On Christmas, Luka Dončić suffered a calf injury that’ll render him ineligible for awards. He would have had a chance, but he will not reach the 65-game requirement. Dončić has already missed 11 games, and the expectation in Dallas is that he’ll be sidelined until late February or even March, so he’ll be way out of the running for his first MVP award and thus isn’t included in today’s exercise.

Let’s get to it, starting with my current favorite to be the 2024-25 NBA MVP:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Oklahoma City is on a 69-win pace, despite losing Isaiah Hartenstein to start the season and Chet Holmgren for the majority of it. The main reason is simple: Gilgeous-Alexander, dominating on both ends and pushing his team to heights no one can match. When SGA is on the floor, the Thunder annihilate opponents, outscoring them by 16.7 points per 100 possessions. Take him off, and they’re a league-average team with a -0.2 net rating.

Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in MVP voting, posting monstrous scoring numbers. This year, he’s even better. SGA is taking a higher volume of 3s off the dribble (2.6 last year to 5.5 this year), and making more 3s off the catch (35.6% last year to 52.2% this year). But what really gives him the nod over Jokić, who’s better than ever offensively? And over Antetokounmpo, who’s dragging his team to victories? Defense.

SGA ranks seventh in the NBA in steals per game, is tied with Derrick White for the lead in blocks by a guard and constantly churns out the type of hustle plays coaches dream their stars will make. He slithers over screens with ease, disrupts passing lanes with active hands and rotates into the paint to contest shots or grab rebounds. It would be understandable if a superstar scorer like Gilgeous-Alexander were taking breathers on defense, but instead his performance fortifies the Thunder as one of the elite defensive units of the modern era.

With Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way, OKC could push 70 wins. Without him, it’s scrapping for a play-in spot. He’s putting up Hall of Fame-level offensive numbers while playing All-Defensive-caliber defense. If the worst thing you can say is that his teammates are too good, it feels more like nitpicking when the stats are a wash compared to other leading candidates. But the wins? That’s an avalanche in SGA’s favor.

BetMGM odds: -110

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

After winning the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, the Bucks dropped three of their next five games with Giannis missing four of them due to an illness. In his return on Tuesday, he attempted just four shots in the first half and looked to still be on the mend. The Bucks fell down by 19 points to the Pacers in the third quarter, but then Antetokounmpo activated the same MVP mode that he used to lead his team out of an early-season hole and back into the playoff race.

Giannis scored at will offensively, finishing with power at the rim, displaying his improved midrange prowess and playmaking for his teammates. Defensively, Doc Rivers slid him to the 5 for extended minutes, and he turned the water off on Indiana’s offense. Through his relentless two-way dominance, he willed the Bucks to a victory. This is what Giannis does — when things look bleak, he steps in, takes control and drags his team to the finish line. Don’t be surprised to see him back at the top of the MVP race by season’s end.

BetMGM odds: +1000

3. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets

Jokić remains the NBA’s best offensive maestro. Already boasting three MVPs and a Finals MVP, this might somehow be the best version of Jokić we’ve seen on offense because of his 3-point prowess. Without him, the Nuggets would be one of the worst teams in the league.

Jokić has more on his plate than ever before. The team has dealt with injuries, including to the team’s best defender, Aaron Gordon. And offensively, Jamal Murray looks like a shell of his former self, forcing Jokić to spend more energy on offense rather than conserving it for defensive efforts. This has hurt Jokić’s case for MVP, since he’s been better in the past on defense. The moment when Anfernee Simons scooted into an open paint for a game-winning layup, with Jokić failing to rotate over to contest the shot, is a moment that could stick in the collective memory when it comes time to vote.

Jokić could close the season playing defense at the level he can, while continuing to carry Denver’s offense and run away with the award. The Nuggets are nothing without Jokić. But in such a tight race, that won’t guarantee him a fourth MVP.

BetMGM odds: +105

4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Take Tatum away and Boston’s nowhere near the contender it is. He’s a great defender, an active rebounder, and he chips in as a playmaker when needed. He’s the ultimate “whatever it takes” guy. In another reality, if the Celtics leaned on him to drop over 30 points per game, we might be talking about Tatum as the MVP. But that’s not the Celtics’ game. They’ve built a roster so deep that Tatum doesn’t need to carry a team every night, and ironically, that hurts him in the MVP race.

Everything I said about SGA leading a winning team applies to Tatum — just dial it down a notch. SGA carries a larger offensive load and he’s a more efficient scorer. So while Tatum’s brilliance may not shine as brightly in the MVP conversation, he is the linchpin of a team built for greatness.

BetMGM odds: +2200

5. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

I get it — putting Wembanyama in the MVP conversation feels like it’s happening too fast. He’s 20 years old. He hasn’t hit his ceiling. And yet, his production demands attention: 25.6 points, 10 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 3.9 blocks. Defensively, he’s already a game-changing force blocking shots, altering drives and scaring opponents away from the paint entirely. And when they do challenge him, they shoot an absurd 13.7% worse within six feet of the rim. With Wemby on the floor, the Spurs operate at a top-five defensive level.

After averaging just 18.3 points on 54.2% true shooting through the first 10 games, it looked like Wembanyama might struggle to find his rhythm in Year 2 as he added more 3-point attempts to his arsenal. Then came the eruption — 34 points against the Kings, 50 against the Wizards — and the Spurs started winning. Since that slow start, he’s averaging 29.6 points on a blistering 63.3% true shooting. It’s dominance at every level: 86.4% from the line, 79.4% at the rim, 64.8% in the paint, 40.4% from midrange and 38.4% from deep. These improved numbers follow the same skyrocketing trajectory he’s been on for years.

For now, both the numbers and the eye test lead to the same conclusion: Wembanyama is already one of the NBA’s best players. And if he continues on this path, someday the MVP conversation won’t just include him. It will revolve around him.

BetMGM odds: +6600

Who deserves All-NBA recognition?

ESPN’s MVP straw poll offers a sneak peek into how the electorate is leaning. Right now, there’s a pretty clear top tier — Jokić, SGA, and Giannis — all logging over 600 total points, with Tatum cemented as a strong fourth after nabbing 95 of the 100 votes. But 10 other players received votes in the fifth spot, including Wemby, who got my nod today. Since Luka will be out of the running, the field is even more open. With MVP votes so concentrated at the top, there’s a wide-open field of talent deserving recognition — both in the MVP mix and for All-NBA honors. So let’s take a look at my All-NBA teams through this point of the season, followed by some takeaways:

First Team
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Second Team
Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks
Jalen Brunson, Knicks
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
LeBron James, Lakers

Third Team
Anthony Davis, Lakers
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

On the radar: Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, Jalen Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Cade Cunningham, Ja Morant, Tyler Herro, Trae Young, Jalen Williams, Jimmy Butler, Darius Garland, Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, LaMelo Ball, Zach LaVine

Note: Luka Dončić and Franz Wagner will not qualify. Joel Embiid, Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero are already disqualified.

Mobley has taken the leap: Mobley is still a dominant defensive presence, and now he’s knocking down 43% of his 2.5 3-point attempts per game. Add just a touch more shot creation, and he’s building on the momentum from his impressive playoff run.

LeBron is the only remaining OG (for now): The Christmas Day interview with LeBron, Steph and KD was a reminder they’re all still relevant, but only one of them is still sitting at the All-NBA grown-ups table: LeBron. Steph’s scoring volume is way down and KD can’t even drag the Suns into a play-in spot. You can’t count out Steph or KD. There’s a lot of basketball left to be played. But for now, only LeBron has earned a spot.

Knicks won the KAT trade: Towns is delivering some of the best basketball of his career, posting a personal-best 66.2% true shooting. A big part of that success comes from his new partnership with Jalen Brunson. Together, they’ve run over 500 pick-and-rolls this season — more than any other duo — and they’re fast becoming one of the league’s most lethal combinations.

Kyrie’s chance to rise: Luka’s calf injury could keep him out until late February or even March. So the Mavericks face a precarious stretch. They’re fourth in the West but only 4.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Suns. If Irving shines even more than he already has and can keep Dallas in the playoff hunt while Luka recovers, he’ll solidify his case for All-NBA honors for the first time since the 2020–21 campaign.

Trade candidates to monitor: You could argue I’m stretching to include Butler, LaVine and Fox, considering the competition. But all three are involved in trade talks. If any of them were to get traded, it could change their trajectory for the better. After all, January has just begun. We still have a long way to go.