We’re mere hours away from finding out who will make the 2025 Super Bowl as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills square off in the AFC championship game and the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship. Both matchups present a multitude of storylines.
Will Bills quarterback Josh Allen finally get past Patrick Mahomes in the postseason? Do the Commanders have enough defensively to stop Eagles running back Saquon Barkley? Is this the end of Jayden Daniels’ magical rookie season, or will he cement his status as the sport’s next big star?
Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Greif of NBC News and Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports answer those questions and more ahead of the conference title games Sunday.
Rank the four quarterbacks.
Nadkarni: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts
I would rather be behind the curve as opposed to ahead of the curve when it comes to doubting Mahomes. So even with his and the Chiefs’ relatively pedestrian offensive numbers this year, in the game’s biggest moments, there is no question for me: I want Mahomes.
Allen has been great this year, especially when it comes to protecting the football. Some of the best plays he made in the Bills’ win over the Ravens were the plays he didn’t — no forced throws, no ill-advised laterals. Combine his newfound risk avoidance with his running and throwing talent, he’s a clear second for me.
Daniels vs. Hurts is where it gets interesting. I’d take the Eagles’ offense overall, but quarterback vs. quarterback? If one of Daniels or Hurts needs to win a shootout, I trust Daniels more in pure passing situations.
Greif: Daniels, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts
Not to be a prisoner of the moment, but Daniels is currently having one heck of a moment. Among the four quarterbacks left, the Commanders rookie has completed the second-highest percentage of passes, taken the fewest sacks, thrown for the most yards per game and has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio. One rating, ESPN’s “QBR,” rates him virtually perfect on third and fourth downs. Most importantly, Daniels also leads the category of “player you least want to see right now.”
Mahomes’ statistical sag during the regular season — he posted worse-than-career-average marks in rating, the percentage of passes that went for touchdowns and interceptions and threw for fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time since he became a starter six years ago — has continued in the postseason. And yet, try watching his improvised touchdown pass to Travis Kelce last week, thrown perfectly through Houston’s zone while Mahomes was falling down, and believe he won’t find a way to win. Mahomes has won his last six home playoff games and 11 of his last 12, dating to 2019.
This is nothing to take away from Allen, who can shape-shift into whatever the Bills need to get the job done, whether as a passer or a runner. Half of his 18 carries in the postseason have resulted in first downs.
Daugherty: Mahomes, Allen, Daniels, Hurts
No. 1 is Mahomes until proven otherwise. Although Mahomes’ play has gone from scintillating to workmanlike amid the Chiefs’ receiver shortage, it has remained devastatingly effective at winning football games. Not even Tom Brady was executing at this high a level during his peak. It’s still possible the Chiefs’ lack of big plays dooms them in the end this year, but Mahomes’ impact will continue to cover every inch of the field for K.C.
Second has to be Allen. Allen became more Mahomes-like in 2024 as he cut out the turnovers and deep shots and focused more on play-to-play productivity. The results so far include his first AFC championship game appearance in four years. Allen has essentially become Cam Newton, only with the efficiency dial turned up to 11. He is not going to be the reason the Bills lose. He could very well be the sole reason they win.
Third — famous last words — is Daniels. Preternaturally calm for any quarterback, Daniels is supernatural in his poise and execution for a rookie. With the entire Commanders franchise on his shoulders, Daniels has converted seemingly 100 straight fourth downs. Which brings us to the two main problems for the rookie: It’s all on him, and no one can run this hot forever. The Commanders may still be a year early. But at this point, no one should be surprised if Daniels simply never cools off and the Commanders hoist their first Lombardi Trophy since before the internet.
Last and begrudgingly least is Hurts, who already appeared to be at less than 100% health heading into the divisional round. Now he seems somewhere closer to 50%. Struggling to threaten downfield for most of the second half of the season, Hurts has become too much of a mono threat to win games on his own. The beautiful part about the Eagles is that he has plenty of help. He just needs more of it right now than the other three quarterbacks on this list.
Under-the-radar storyline
Nadkarni: The Commanders’ fourth-down aggressiveness is coming close to flying above the radar, but I think their coaching strategy has been on point during the postseason. After attempting five fourth-down conversions in the wild-card round, Washington went for it four more times on fourth against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round. If the Commanders are going to pull off an upset on the road this week as a significant underdog, then continuing to employ a bold fourth-down strategy will go a long way.
And it will especially be important against an Eagles team that likes to play keepaway with the football. Philly’s rushing attack can skew time of possession pretty quickly. If Washington remains aggressive and can keep an extra drive or two alive, that will go a long way in the Commanders’ upsetting yet another team.
Greif: Buffalo has its best chance to break its three-game postseason losing streak to Kansas City because it holds on to the ball to a historic degree. It is the first team in NFL history to go four consecutive playoff games — dating to last season — without a turnover, according to NFL research, and has a chance to become the first team ever to make a Super Bowl while committing fewer than 10 turnovers all season. If it can play clean football, it will give itself more opportunities to finally take down the Chiefs.
Daugherty: Kansas City running back Isiah Pacheco doesn’t appear anywhere close to 100% healthy for the Chiefs. That’s bad news for a team committed to grinding games out until it can get back to free agency and the draft and throw more darts at its receiver corps.
At some point, someone other than Mahomes and Travis Kelce is going to have to make a big play for the Chiefs. It doesn’t really look possible out of the backfield right now, and that could be too much to overcome for even the best player in the league against a Bills team that isn’t going to make the charitable contributions the Chiefs have become used to receiving from overawed opponents this season.
Which non-QB (besides Saquon Barkley) will have the biggest impact this weekend?
Nadkarni: Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones may not be the most popular name associated with the Kansas City dynasty, but he’s one of the most important pieces of the team’s overall success. Don’t let the lack of insurance commercials or podcast clips fool you; Jones is as integral a part of the Chiefs’ winning as the Mahomes-to-Kelce connection.
Jones is primed for a monster performance against Buffalo on Sunday. At the very least, Kansas City is going to need one from him to advance. The Bills’ offensive line is rock solid, and it helped key their rushing success against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round. Jones is not only going to play a role in slowing down the run. If he’s able to generate pressure lined up over the middle, that could neutralize some of Allen’s scrambling ability.
Greif: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia defensive tackle. Carter’s third-down sack and fourth-down pressure of the Rams’ Matthew Stafford helped seal the Eagles’ victory in the divisional round, and he also has three passes defended in the postseason. Now, Carter faces a Commanders offensive line missing starting guard Sam Cosmi, who injured a knee last week. An Eagles victory hinges partly on getting to the Commanders’ Daniels, and if the Eagles can get pressure with just their defensive front, it will allow their linebackers to spy on Daniels or drop into coverage.
Daugherty: The answer is always Kelce. All it took for him to look back in Hall of Fame form was for the playoff lights to come on. The question is if that will be enough for the Chiefs. Teams are resigned to Kelce moving the chains and soaking up looks in the red zone. The Bills can probably still win if it’s only Kelce trying to drag Mahomes along to a third straight Super Bowl victory.
Who makes the Super Bowl?
Nadkarni: Chiefs and Eagles. Mahomes stays the king of the AFC. And Philly’s experience in big games finally catches up to the Commanders.
Greif: Philadelphia will beat Washington in the NFC because the Commanders’ defense has been leaky (allowing 25.5 points per game in the postseason, 9.5 more than Philadelphia), while the Eagles have ranked among the league’s elite defenses all season; by one metric, they stand tied for the league lead in allowing the lowest success rate.
Picking the AFC feels like splitting hairs. But until the Chiefs are knocked off in their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title, Kansas City remains the choice to win in Vegas and in my estimation, too. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit sacked Texans QB C.J. Stroud eight times in last week’s divisional round and pressured him on half of his dropbacks, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Can it make life hard for Josh Allen, too?
Daugherty: I’ve become something of a Chiefs dead-ender. Even at their lowest ebb last year, I remained confident of their Super Bowl favoritism. They’re 16-1 in games where they’ve tried this season. I just don’t think it’s their year. This could be the last opening the Chiefs ever leave for the Bills. I expect Allen and Co. to walk through it.
In the NFC, I believe the Commanders have finally met their match. You don’t have to go too far back to find the last time Daniels torched Philly — Dec. 22. But that was in Washington and mostly sans Hurts, who left the game early with a concussion. For as impressive as Washington has been and as banged up as Hurts has become, the Commanders simply can’t compete with the Eagles on a 1-to-53 basis even if they own the No. 1 spot with Daniels. I like the Eagles to dictate the terms Tampa Bay and Detroit could not and for Philly to advance to face Buffalo in New Orleans.
1. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) – Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league right now and has proven time and time again that he can lead his team to victory. His combination of arm talent, mobility, and football IQ makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
2. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) – Allen has taken a huge leap forward this season and has solidified himself as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league. His ability to make plays with his arm and his legs will be crucial for the Bills against the Chiefs.
3. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) – Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer and has been playing at an MVP level this season. His ability to dissect defenses and make big plays in crucial moments will be key for the Packers in their matchup against the Buccaneers.
4. Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Brady may be in the twilight of his career, but he has shown that he can still perform at a high level in big games. His experience and leadership will be crucial for the Buccaneers as they try to upset the Packers.
Overall, the AFC and NFC Championship games are set to feature some of the top quarterbacks in the league, and it will be exciting to see how they perform in these high-stakes matchups.
Tags:
:
You must be logged in to post a comment.