Tag: Scoot

Expectations were high in the Summer of 2023 when the Portland Trail Blazers selected Scoot Henderson as the third overall pick in the NBA Draft. Nobody expected Henderson to equal first-overall pick Victor Wembanyama, but he was touted as a clear second choice by many pundits.

87 games into his career, Henderson is coming off the bench for the Blazers in the midst of his second consecutive up-and-down season. The intermittent nature of his development has given rise to near constant questions, including this one from the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.

Dave,

I know not everyone is sold on Scoot, and I can’t really say I am either. Scoot is 20 years old. At his age he might be expected to be playing in college, but he never went. He played in high school obviously, then played two years in the G-League before he came here. Can we really say he was proven when Cronin took him third overall?

Martin

Ah, the eternal question. And it’s still one of the most important facing the Blazers.

Here’s the only thing that matters right now:

11.3 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 turnovers in 25.8 minutes per game with 39.8% field goal shooting, 30.3% from the three-point arc.

Obviously there are plenty of advanced metrics too, but bottom line, Scoot is who Scoot is. History, draft position, team needs, past expectations…none of that changes his production on the floor. While it’s improving in a couple areas—his turnovers are down slightly and his steals are up on a per-minute basis—he’s still not what you’d consider a good point guard.

Here are the first strengths that NBADraft.net listed for Henderson in preparation for the 2023 NBA Draft:

Henderson is a 6’2 190 guard with outstanding length (wingspan reported to be around 6’9) and a strong build already as a 19 year old … He also possesses standout athleticism, as he has top-notch speed, agility, body control and explosive leaping ability off one or both feet … Aggressive; has very little problems getting where he wants to on the court, even when turning the corner against ball hedges or traps, and does a great job of pressuring the defense with his burst and speed but also decelerating and/or stopping on a dime to keep defenders off balance … Absorbs contact and is rarely knocked off his pivot when slashing to the rim … Can also finish at the rim over and through defenders in emphatic fashion due to his strength and leaping skills … Likes to operate at the point of attack to create offense for himself and his teammates, and is most comfortable with the ball in his hands … Very tricky player to stay in front of due to the slithery footwork, great 1st step and outstanding ball-handling skills that he displays …

That paragraph should seem familiar. It pretty much describes Henderson’s gifts and style a season and a half on. The only part you’d quibble with is finishing at the rim, simply because it’s been more difficult for him against NBA-level defensive players.

Here are the corresponding weaknesses:

3-point shot needs improvement (27 3FG%); added range and consistency would make him an even more dangerous matchup problem offensively … Currently more comfortable taking lower percentage shots off the dribble than open with his feet set (42 FG%) … Will inevitably be dared to shoot deep shots and has to prove that he has to be guarded in the screen game to keep defenses honest, which will have an impact on spacing given how often he operates in those types of actions … Dictates the pace well, but sometimes spends too much time pounding the rock which can stagnate the offensive flow … Natural feel for being a playmaker for others can stand to improve; sometimes takes ill-advised shots before looking to set up the offense … Given the pressure he puts on the defense, his lack of trips to the charity stripe in the G-League was disappointing (2.9 FTA/G, on 76.4%) … A work in progress defensively, not yet being consistent on a possession-by-possession basis…

I don’t think Scoot “spends too much time pounding the rock” anymore. That’s one of the things that has improved since his rookie season. The rest of it still seems apt, though.

Long story short, Scoot is Scooting. He has improved incrementally, but he hasn’t become more than he was.

The fear isn’t that we don’t know who Scoot is, it’s that we do. And it amounts to 11.3 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 turnovers in 25.8 minutes per game with 39.8% field goal shooting, 30.3% from the three-point arc. We’d rather believe there’s more proof to be had than accept that as the ultimate reality. That’s part of why we have so many questions about him.

So, to answer your question directly, Scoot was hyped, but he was not proven coming into the NBA and he is still not proven today. The longer the current trends continue, though, the closer to proven he becomes. You’re just not going to like the proof.

Addressing the implications behind the question: yes, point guard is a tricky position to learn. We still won’t know if there’s more to Scoot for another couple years, at least. He does have time to improve.

However, for every story of a player who revolutionized their game in their first few seasons, there are eight of players who couldn’t. This is especially true of the point guard position. The same difficulty that makes us refrain from passing judgment on point guards too young also cautions that actually making the leap is hard. The odds don’t favor Henderson at the moment.

None of this is inherently an issue. It’s part of the natural course of the NBA. The problem, if any, is that the Blazers need a point guard badly. The gap between Scoot’s production and Portland’s roster requirements are causing tension. If we were back in 1991 and Henderson played behind Terry Porter and Danny Ainge, his development would be a curiosity with only upside, third overall pick or no. That’s not the case. The Blazers need to make decisions about their future. Knowing Henderson’s ceiling and the likelihood of him reaching it would go a long way towards determining their next steps.

The issue here isn’t just Henderson, but what the Blazers are asking and will be asking from him. If you need a million dollars by next Christmas, you don’t want to ask someone who’s going to start digging in his pockets and rummaging around the couch cushions for change. He may come up with a tidy sum for all you know, but you really want the guy who pulls up in a Rolls Royce already. Maybe that’s what the Blazers were hoping they were getting in Scoot. It’s not what they got. Angst is the inevitable result, fair or not.

Riding out the developmental cycle seems like the best option for all involved right now. It’s not likely that other teams will be beating down Portland’s door to get at Scoot. The Blazers will be better off betting on his potential ceiling than bailing on him. Maybe another year will make a bigger difference, or a new coach. Who knows? But conclusions aren’t likely to come soon and they won’t be direct. You might want to get a bottle of antacids and resolve to judge Scoot season-to-season (like the team does) while he puts in the work game-to-game as (a player must). Someday those divergent timelines may overlap, but right now the perspectives are too far apart to yield meaningful results.

One way or another Henderson will end up proving himself. The operative question is, as what? I know “wait and see” is a dissatisfying answer to the developmental question, but it’s all Scoot and the Blazers have right now, so there you go.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll answer as many as we can!