Tag: ShortTerm

Say this for the Phoenix Suns: They have one of the NBA’s most creative front offices when it comes to finding new and different ways in which to mortgage their future. Never mind that this strategy hit its peak two years ago and it has long since been time to turn this ship around; they’re still plowing full steam ahead and throwing lifejackets overboard as they go.

Sorry, I was in the midst of complimenting the Suns before I got sidetracked. In their way, Phoenix made a creative trade on Tuesday by sending an unprotected 2031 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz in return for three other first-round picks in 2025, 2027 and 2029. These picks aren’t likely to be nearly as valuable, and I’ll explain why in a minute. But in essence, the Suns broke a dollar bill into three quarters to improve their immediate trade flexibility, and The Athletic reported late Tuesday that there is rising optimism that Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler is closer to reaching his desired destination — Phoenix — as a result.

Of course, it’s that same impulsive habit under owner Mat Ishbia — chasing short-term sugar highs while burning the future to the ground — that motivates teams like Utah to enthusiastically participate in these deals.

In the last 18 months, the Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz all have made bets of some size that the Suns will be terrible between 2026 and 2031. So far, so good: It’s early 2025, and Phoenix is an old, average team with zero cap flexibility and few draft assets.

The thing about having three quarters instead of a dollar bill, however, is that you can give one quarter to one team and one quarter to another team. The Suns essentially split the baby on their most valuable (not to mention only) remaining asset, that 2031 pick,. The obvious way that might matter is if they are involved in a multi-team trade that requires them to send draft capital to two different teams.

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In this particular case, it also allows the Suns to sidestep around the Stepien Rule, named for former Cavaliers owner Ted Stepien, who had a penchant for trading all his draft picks and leaving the team high and dry for the future. I can’t think of any other recent examples of that.

The Stepien Rule prevents teams from trading first-round picks in consecutive years by requiring that they have at least one pick certain to convey in every two-year window. However, the loophole for Phoenix is that it doesn’t have to be a team’s own picks. (Side note: We’re definitely getting an “Ishbia Rule” at some point in the next two collective bargaining agreements.)

Thus, having already traded their firsts in 2025, 2027 and 2029, and pick swaps in 2026, 2028 and 2030, the Suns couldn’t trade any future firsts aside from that 2031 choice. The picks they got from Utah will likely be at the back end of the first round — the worst of Cleveland or Minnesota’s pick in 2025 (so, likely 29th or 30th) and the worst of Cleveland, Utah or Minnesota’s in 2027 and 2029.

Sidesteppin’ Stepien means everything is back on the table now. The Suns can trade one or more of their swapped picks in 2026, 2028 and 2030, or they can trade one or more of the new picks they got from Utah in 2025, 2027 and 2029. They still can’t move picks in consecutive years, but Phoenix could conceivably mix and match and, for example, trade its swapped pick in 2026 and the pick it received in the Utah trade in 2029,

I bring this up because it could matter for trades that don’t involve Butler. As in, the Suns could send out Jusuf Nurkić and a pick in one trade to get something back, and Grayson Allen and a pick in another trade to get something back.

It’s just hard to believe that’s the actual reason they’re doing this — for two reasons. First, no team, no matter how badly run, is going to make a trade like this and then just say, “Well, now maybe let’s see what we can do?”

They already know the answer. You’re not doing a trade like this on spec; you’re doing it to satisfy a particular need that has already been communicated by another trade partner.

Second, Phoenix probably wouldn’t do this unless it was doing something big, because this is the Suns’ last chip. I can’t emphasize this enough since the Suns keep coming up with deals to squeeze more out of their diminishing draft-pick stock: This is where it ends.

No, they can’t rinse, lather and repeat a year from now. Because of repeatedly going over the CBA’s second apron, the Suns’ 2032 pick will be frozen and they can’t trade it. Ditto for every pick after that until they get their payroll under control.

Sure, they’ll likely trade their 2032 second-rounder within minutes of gaining access to it, but it’s not going to bring back much. The same goes for trading “swaps of swaps” to get access to more seconds, especially now that they’ve already done this on three different picks.

At this point all roads lead to Butler, obviously, given that he is the one glittery, shiny object on the trade market, and the Ishbia-era Suns cannot resist shiny objects. The fact that Phoenix went through with this Utah trade is a sign we’re getting warm, and not necessarily on a two-team deal.

Most notably, a trade involving Bradley Beal going to Milwaukee, Butler going to Phoenix and at least one other team being involved besides Miami, seems highly plausible, based both on reporting by my intrepid colleagues at The Athletic and the common sense of looking at a cap sheet.

The logistics are hairy but not insurmountable: The Bucks have to send out at least $58 million in salary to take back Beal’s $50.2 million salary and stay below the second apron once they backfill the roster for all the empty slots on what is likely a four-for-one or five-for-one deal. Beal would also have to waive his no-trade clause; presumably the teams involved would ascertain whether this was a realistic possibility before marching headlong into a deal.

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If we assume Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez are off limits, getting to $58 million basically requires the inclusion of Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and two other low-salary players, possibly MarJon Beauchamp and Chris Livingston. Backfilling the roster with three minimum deals and keeping the roster at 14 the rest of the season would leave the Bucks about a half million dollars below the threshold.

This is where the deal likely takes some time to get to the finish line: All that salary flotsam has to go somewhere, and it’s not in particularly high demand. Multiple teams would likely get involved, and the Heat might end up with only one or two of those Bucks mentioned above. (One interesting sidebar, for instance: Could the Suns possibly stuff a Nurkić-for-Portis sidebar into it? Seems unlikely, but surely they would ask.) From Miami’s perspective, most notably, a deal that ends up with the Heat under the luxury tax is probably a lot more palatable given the fairly minimal draft compensation likely coming their way; a Butler-for-Middleton swap gets them there, but the other Bucks would have to go elsewhere.

And that, in turn, is likely why the Suns made their trade in the first place. A two-team deal with Miami wouldn’t require them to break their bill into coins like this; a multi-team trade, however, likely compensates Miami with one or two of the firsts and then sends the other(s) to compensate other teams for taking unwanted contracts.

Either way, we’ll end up where every Suns deal ends up: They’ll be slightly more competitive in the short term, but they’re Stepien even deeper into the abyss in the long term. I say “long term,” but that doom cycle is basically 24 months away even if everything breaks right, and very possibly more like four months.

Butler, or some other star, would help win a few more games this year, but it won’t change the Suns’ overarching reality: Their best player is 36, they have no draft picks, they have no good young players, and they can’t sign any free agents above the minimum.

Basically, the fields have been salted through 2031. All that’s left to do now is starve. No wonder everybody wants to trade for Phoenix’s picks.

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(Top photo of Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)