Tag: Sudden

In something of a stunning development, China appears to already be flying a stealthy, high-performance sixth-generation crewed combat aircraft, imagery of which began to emerge today. At this early stage, we have very little idea about the precise identity of the new aircraft, but many elements of its design are very much in line with what we already knew about Chinese sixth-generation airpower aspirations.

Video and photos that began to circulate today on social media show the previously unseen aircraft conducting a daytime test flight, alongside a two-seat Chengdu J-20S fighter, serving as a chase plane. The locations and the dates of the various imagery cannot be verified at this stage, although the presence of the J-20 suggests that the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) factory airfield is a likely candidate.

There has also been no official comment from the Chinese Ministry of Defense or state media so far.

Aside from the sheer size of the new aircraft, which we will address in a moment, the most striking thing about it is its planform and tailless configuration. It has a modified delta wing with chine lines extending all the way to the nose area, while its central fuselage section, at least the bottom of it, is loosely reminiscent of the J-20. The broad nose could even provide space for side-by-side crew seating, although the limited views of the canopy mean we cannot be sure whether the aircraft has a single-seat or two-seat arrangement, with tandem twin seats being another option.

There was already growing evidence pointing to the fact that China’s next fighter would be tailless, and designs of this kind had previously appeared in the form of technical studies. Back in October 2021, a mysterious tailless aircraft shape appeared in satellite images of a CAC factory airfield. It was a large modified-diamond-like delta planform with a relatively thin nose section that also had a significant wingspan — broadly similar to that of a J-20. But it’s worth noting that this shape does not look the same as the aircraft we are seeing.

Beyond that, next-generation tactical combat aircraft eschewing traditional tails is a major design driver being pursued the U.S. military, as well. This is predominantly to significantly reduce the aircraft’s radar signature across multiple bands and from all aspects. There are some aerodynamic efficiencies also to be had with such a design, especially one used for long-range operations via a reduction in aerodynamic drag, which should provide better performance for sustained high-speed dashes and cruising flight. At the same time, a tailless configuration can adversely affect overall maneuverability, even with the most advanced computerized flight control systems. There are currently no signs of thrust-vectoring engines on this aircraft, which would help enhance agility and overall stability. The engine exhausts are mounted in the best place to mask the aircraft’s infrared signature, atop the rear of its fuselage, similar to the YF-23.

While a tailless configuration, size, general shaping, and exhaust layout point directly toward a design tailored for stealth and endurance, it’s not entirely clear the exact level of enhanced low observability this new aircraft might offer. Just deleting the tail surfaces and strakes and providing a more general aerodynamic clean-up, while leveraging the same now nearly 15-year-old technology found on the the J-20, for example, would still be a massive improvement. Clearly, this aircraft incorporates significantly greater low observable technologies that are a leap ahead of the J-20, beyond its tailless design.

Also notable is the elaborate arrangement of control surfaces coupled with the tailless design, with five trailing edge control surfaces per wing. These include prominent split flaps close to the wingtips. These would be used differentially to provide yaw control in the absence of tail control surfaces, as well as deploying simultaneously to serve as air brakes.

In terms of size, the new aircraft can be compared to the J-20 — the imagery suggests it is at least as long. The J-20 is close to 70 feet from nose to tail. In this regard, this design’s twin-wheel main landing gear is also worth noting, providing another pointer to the considerable weight of the aircraft. Above all, its large size would seem to reflect an overarching concern with long endurance with comparatively massive internal volume to accommodate a very large fuel load, as well as weapons and sensors.

Maybe the aircraft’s most unusual feature is its air intake arrangement. It appears to have an air intake on top of the fuselage, as well as twin intakes on either side of the lower fuselage. This has already led to speculation that the aircraft may have a highly unorthodox three-engine arrangement. Unconfirmed rumors point to a powerplant comprising three domestically produced WS-10C turbofans, as used in the J-20. Considering the aircraft’s higher gross weight than the J-20, three engines may be necessary in order to meet aggressive performance goals, especially for sustained high-speed flight and operations at high altitudes.

That China has been working on a sixth-generation combat aircraft program is also no surprise.

Back in September 2022, now-retired Air Force Gen. Mark D. Kelly, who was then the head of Air Combat Command (ACC), said that China was working on the same kind of air combat ‘system of systems’ that his service was pursuing under its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative, including a sixth-generation manned fighter jet.

At the time, Kelly noted that China saw sixth-generation air power, including future manned fighter aircraft, “greatly the way we see it: an exponential reduction in signature, exponential acceleration of processing power and sensing.” Another key factor would be the ability to “iterate” improvements aided by open mission systems, Kelly added.

Regarding a potential successor to the J-20, Gen. Kelly warned that China “are not dummies. They know what they’re doing.”

Kelly also said he expected the Chinese sixth-generation air combat program to include an “exponential” improvement in stealth compared with current platforms.

At this early stage, it’s far from clear whether the new aircraft is a prototype sixth-generation fighter, or perhaps a more generalized demonstrator that will test new technologies that could potentially end up on a variety of different platforms, including a large tactical aircraft much like it. It seems almost certain that China, for some time now, has been engaged in preliminary testing of different manned fighter configurations. This development work may also include demonstrators, both sub-scale and full-size, and the new aircraft may well be related to it.

The aircraft could also be related to a new regional stealth bomber aircraft, which could potentially be a crewed component tied to the broader Chinese sixth-generation airpower initiative.

The regional bomber program, known as JH-XX, remains very secretive, but you can read more about what is known about that project here. Previously, it was thought that the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation might be working on the JH-XX, in which case a J-20 chase plane, from the rival Chengdu, would seem less likely.

More likely, at least at this time, this aircraft could be more closely tied to China’s version of America’s Next Generation Air Dominance initiative, which aimed to develop a similar manned heavy ‘fighter’-like aircraft that would work just as much as a command and control node for drones as a classic fighter. Range, sustained speed in cruise, weapons payload, and low observability are all thought to be top priorities of the manned fighter component of NGAD, or at least were. The fighter element of the program is now on hold and still may be canceled entirely, or end up looking very different, under the Trump administration.

The fact that this exotic aircraft was flying during the day, in an area where it was seemingly easily photographed also tells a lot about the program’s status. It is very likely China intended for this to be seen at this time.

Overall, while so much remains unknown, what we can say about this aircraft definitively is that it’s a large, very heavy, tactical jet that has had a massive premium put on combat radios and survivability. High altitude operations are also likely a feature of this design, especially if it does indeed feature three engines. But above all else, if procured in an operation form by the PLAAF, it would be able to fly over long regional distances and loiter for extended periods on station far from home without tanker support — something China lacks in terms of capacity versus the United States. It would also presumably be able to do this in closer proximity to threats than any other manned aircraft in China’s arsenal.

In other words, it could put targets in the air, on the ground, and at sea at risk in areas where they currently do not expect a threat from a manned combat aircraft. This has real implications for American tankers, airlifters, and airborne early warning and control, and reconnaissance aircraft, as well as allied ships and forces operating at forward locales. It would also serve as a critical force-multiplying sensor platform operating far forward. Paired with drone wingmen of relevant endurance, its lethality and survivability would be multiplied.

In other words, the existence of this aircraft is a very big deal.

Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com