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Tag: Theories

  • Why did Luka Dončić get traded? Rating the top 5 theories based on believability


    I told myself I’d give it 100 hours.

    It’s been about that much time since the Dallas Mavericks traded their 25-year-old superstar, Luka Dončić, along with Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris, to the rival Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2019 first-round pick. I figured 100 hours would be enough time for some bombshell to come out about Dončić and justify the trade.

    Did he secretly demand a trade? Get into a brawl behind the scenes? Relieve himself on the Dallas Cowboys star at the 50-yard line?

    Turns out, we’ve learned nothing of the sort. The press conference with GM Nico Harrison alongside a visibly uncomfortable Jason Kidd provided little to no answers.

    It’s still just as baffling as it was on Saturday night. While the idea of LeBron finally playing with Luka may not be a total jaw-dropper, the timing and the package sure are shocking.

    As the NBA universe scratches its collective head, let’s rate the plausible theories as to why Harrison and the franchise decided to trade a 25-year-old superstar months after leading the team to its first Finals in over a decade.

    Believability: 1 out of 5 stars

    Remember when Michael Finley yanked a beer out of Luka Dončić’s hands outside the locker room after winning the Western Conference finals? We laughed at it then, but for Mavs fans, it’s not so funny now.

    Dončić’s habits may have been worse than folks let on, but the facts are the facts. Dončić played 70 incredible games last season and then another 22 even more incredible games in the postseason while averaging 40.9 minutes per game to lead the Mavs to the NBA Finals. Literally no one played more minutes in last year’s postseason than Dončić. He led all players in postseason points, rebounds and assists, becoming just the second player in NBA history to do such a preposterous thing.

    The guy is a gamer. Yes, the recurring calf strain qualifies as a concern, but it doesn’t rise to the level of “trade the 25-year-old perennial MVP candidate” especially when you trade him for ANTHONY DAVIS.

    You know who has suffered a more serious calf strain that knocked him out for 30 games? The 31-year-old big man the Mavs just traded for. Back in 2020-21, Davis came up limp and missed the next two months with a calf strain and Achilles tendinosis. To put it in perspective, Dončić is reportedly on target to return from his calf strain on Saturday, which would put him in line to miss about 20 games.

    I want to stress this point: This is the first time in Dončić’s career that he’s missed double-digit games consecutively for any injury in his career. Davis, on the other hand, has suffered six such injuries.

    Dončić, I should further emphasize, has never needed surgery to repair an injury. Not the case with Davis. The Pelicans were forced to shut down Davis’ season early in 2015-16 because of a torn labrum in his shoulder and a right knee injury that required surgery. Other injuries that caused Davis to miss 10-plus games beyond the calf strain and the shoulder/knee issues in 2016: a stress reaction in his left ankle (2013); a midfoot sprain in the right foot (2022); a stress fracture and bone spur in the same foot (2023); an MCL sprain in the left knee (2022). On top of all that, Davis’ back problems ended his season prematurely in 2013-14 and 2018-19.

    All told, Dončić has played 82% of his team’s games in his career, missing 105 total games (playoffs included). Over the same time period, Davis has played just 73% of his team’s games, missing 151 total (playoffs included).

    Did I mention that Davis is six years older than Dončić? Davis will be 35 years old by the time his contract is through. If you’re concerned about Dončić’s miles on his tires, don’t look at the tread on AD.

    Trading Dončić for Davis because you’re worried about the former’s injury risk is like sending back buffalo wings because they’re too hot and asking for the ones sauced with Carolina reapers. To steal a classic from Bill Simmons, anytime you can trade for a much older, less healthy and less talented player, you have to do it.

    Believability: 2 out of 5 stars

    In the wake of the blockbuster deal, Harrison floated this idea in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, saying: “We really feel like we got ahead of what was going to be a tumultuous summer, him being eligible for the supermax and also a year away from him being able to opt out of any contract. And so we really felt like we got out in front of that. We know teams, they’ve had it out there, teams have been loading up to try to sign him once that comes available.”

    In theory, it’s true Dončić can be a free agent in 2026 and could have held the Dallas organization in limbo by not signing the supermax extension worth five years, $349 million. But in reality, Dončić and his longtime agent, Bill Duffy, have both said Luka never suggested he was not going to sign. And duh, because no player has ever not signed a supermax contract aka the Designated Veteran Player Extension, which allows teams to sign their own qualified players for up to five years at a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. From John Wall to Giannis Antetokounmpo, all 13 players who were offered the supermax since it was introduced in 2017-18 have signed it.

    Could Dončić have asked out? Yes. Would it have ruined the franchise? Not if history is a guide. Of those 14 supermax players, only three asked out — James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard — and their respective teams (Houston, Oklahoma City, Portland) received massive packages in return that set them up for long-term success.

    Believability: 2 out of 5 stars

    The first quote to come out of Dallas’ camp was a telling one. While everyone was busy picking up their jaws off the floor, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon landed a statement from Harrison who, within minutes of the news getting out, said, “I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We’re built to win now and in the future.”

    Let’s put aside that last line which was also true before you traded the younger superstar who carried the franchise to the NBA Finals.

    One way to defend the trade is to point out that Davis is a better defender than Dončić, which makes sense on the surface, but loses credibility quickly.

    For one, if Harrison truly believed defense wins championships, he would not have traded elite defender Dorian Finney-Smith and a first-round pick for Kyrie Irving. He would not have signed a 34-year-old Klay Thompson to a $50 million deal at this stage of his career. Those are moves you make because you maximize talent above all else if your goal is to hoist the Larry OB.

    BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 17: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks arrives before Game Five of the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on June 17, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 17: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks arrives before Game Five of the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on June 17, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

    Just last June, Luka Dončić led Dallas to the NBA Finals. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

    The “defense wins championships” line reads like pure uncut trade copium for another reason: Dončić was having his best defensive season yet! He responded to Finals criticism in a big way. Dončić himself said as much at the press conference on Tuesday.

    “I think this year, I really stepped it up, honestly,” Dončić said. “Just being more active, more vocal. I think I did a step ahead this year. But I need to do more steps ahead, so that’s what I’m planning on.”

    Dončić quietly gave much more effort on that end this season. At the time of his injury, Dončić had actually registered more deflections (75) than Davis (74). Beyond deflections, Dončić was tied for 13th in steals with Jalen Suggs, and the Mavericks were 11th in defensive rating. With Dončić on the floor, the Mavericks held opponents to 109.3 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/stats tracking. Interestingly enough, with him off the floor, the Mavs’ defense deteriorated, allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions. With his elite steals and on/off numbers, his defensive Estimated Plus-Minus ranked in the 83rd percentile this season, marking a career high.

    I’m not making the case that Dončić is better than AD on that end. But the idea that AD’s defensive upgrade outweighs Dončić’s overall impact is blasphemy.

    Does Dončić fight over every screen like he’s Toumani Camara? Maybe not. Does he sprint back on defense and fly around the floor like he’s Amen Thompson? Of course not.

    But neither did Dirk Nowitzki.

    Believability: 1 out of 5 stars

    This one cracks me up. If Dončić signed the supermax, his average annual salary would be about $68 million, the richest in the sport. And it would still be a steal.

    Economic studies have shown that some of the biggest bargains in the sport are max deals given to the very best players because they artificially cap the earning potential well below what they’d make in an open market and are a mere fraction of the revenue those players generate for their teams. Superduperstars like LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Dončić effectively subsidize the contracts of the rest of their NBA peers while providing enormous surplus value for their own teams.

    One such 2024 study by BYU economist Scott Kaplan showed that James’ predicted salary in 2018-19 based on ticket sales, merchandise, popularity (as represented by All-Star votes) and player performance would be a whopping $123.3 million, almost a full $100 million higher than his actual salary paid by the Lakers that season ($35.6 million). Kaplan went even further to suggest that due to James’ ability to fill seats on the road, his value to the entire league was worth an annualized — get this — $229 million in salary.

    How much would Dončić be worth today if there was no salary cap? Kaplan offers a stunning revelation. In 2018-19, when Dončić was a rookie, his predicted salary was $68.7 million based on his popularity and production, far above his actual $6.5 million salary. His value to the NBA as a whole was closer to $127 million. Remember, that was in Dončić’s worst season as a rookie and when revenues were 30% lower than they are today.

    Actual vs. expected salaries during 2018-19 season

    In 2025, a world in which Dončić is much better than he was in 2018-19 and much more popular with an NBA Finals trip, I find the notion that he was going to be too expensive for Dallas’ taste to be wholly unserious. Based on the findings in these studies, it’s not crazy to suggest that any team employing someone of Dončić’s caliber would happily pay him a salary north of $100 million a year based on his basketball prowess and ability to draw ticket sales, merchandise and eyeballs.

    If anything, a team allocating just 35% of the salary cap to Dončić should be considered a discount, not a financial liability. That’s why Harrison’s refusal to open up the marketplace drove the rest of the executives mad. They understand for guys like Dončić entering their primes, the supermax is an economic superfleece for teams.

    Believability: 3 out of 5 stars

    Seattle SuperSonics fan? Oakland A’s fan? Might want to skip this section.

    You may be one of the seven million people who saw the viral social media post written by Dallas attorney Chris Kratovil. The lifelong Mavericks fan proposed an intriguing theory that the Vegas-based casino family that bought the team in 2023, the Adelsons, secretly want to tank the Mavericks franchise in order to force the Texas legislature to let the Adelson family build resort casinos within the expansive borders of Texas.

    Sports gambling is illegal for the 30 million people living in the state of Texas. The Adelsons’ plan to build the so-called “Venetian Dallas” can’t go forward unless the Texas government reverses a stance it’s held for decades. High-level lobbying efforts, Kratovil points out, haven’t worked yet. Experts paint a “very bleak” picture for Adelson and gambling backers in the upcoming 2025 vote — if it even gets to the Texas senate floor.

    Much of the decision is held by Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has refused to play ball on sports gambling bills due to a distinct lack of support among Senate GOP. Without any momentum, the Adelsons could in time turn to a Plan B: threaten to pick up the Mavs and move them to Vegas.

    Key word: threaten. In this version of possible events, a Luka-less team with an abandoned fanbase is a more credible threat to move than a flourishing Mavs franchise with him. This week, Kratovil joined me on the latest Basketball Illuminati podcast and laid out his theory in more detail.

    “I think they want the threat of Vegas and the reality of a monopoly on casino gaming in Dallas-Fort Worth,” Kratovil said on the podcast. “In my view, what they traded Luka for was not for Anthony Davis, (Max Christie) and a single first-round pick. They traded Luka for a credible threat in 2027 or maybe 2029 of moving to Vegas.”

    The Texas legislature meets every two years, which, if the imminent 2025 session doesn’t see the bill pass as expected, means that Davis and Irving may be 34 and 35 years old by the time the next vote comes up.

    The Adelsons, who recently bankrolled a reported $13.7 million in political donations to support pro-gambling efforts (a skeptic might argue that $13.7 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the near $100 million that Miriam Adelson donated to a pro-Trump super PAC), aren’t the only NBA family who wants to see Texas flip on this issue. Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has backed efforts to legalize gambling in Texas, which could open up opportunities for him to break ground on Houston sportsbooks and casinos.

    “People don’t just go to Las Vegas to gamble; they go for entertainment and huge conventions,” Fertitta said. “We’re letting people go right across the border. Go look at my parking lot (at Golden Nugget in Lake Charles, Louisiana). It’s all Texas license plates.”

    This wouldn’t be the first time an owner threatened to move a team. Any Sacramento Kings fan can remember the Maloofs era and the near relocations to Seattle and Virginia before then-NBA commissioner David Stern stepped in and helped keep the team in Sacramento. Furthermore, new owners from far away towns have picked up and moved a team to their backyard before. Oklahoma City businessman Clay Bennett bought the Seattle SuperSonics in 2006, claimed he was all-in on Seattle and then took the team to Oklahoma two years later. (David Stern fined an OKC partner $250,000 for saying the quiet part out loud — that they wanted to move to OKC all along.)

    It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which NBA commissioner Adam Silver would allow a relocation. But then again, it would have been crazy to think the NBA would leave Seattle in the first place. Until the NBA announces who wins the expected Las Vegas expansion rights, this theory won’t go away. That’s what happens when Vegas casino owners buy a franchise in a state that repeatedly has said it doesn’t want casinos.

    Perhaps the answer is that a combination of the first four theories drove the Mavs to make the trade, but the timeline seems excessively drastic for that to be true. In 14 months’ time, the Adelsons managed to buy the team from Mark Cuban, gut him from the decision-making process and then trade away its best, most beloved player months after an NBA Finals run.

    If the Mavs were truly worried about Dončić’s trajectory, they could have chosen less painful options. They could have changed coaches to see if someone else could reach him. They could have changed GMs to see if they can instill a better culture. Instead, they chose the nuclear option.

    The Kratovil theory may be far-fetched. But after sitting on it this week, the political and business reasons sure make more sense than the basketball ones.


    1. Personality conflicts with teammates/coaching staff: This theory suggests that Dončić’s strong personality clashed with key figures within the organization, leading to a decision to trade him. Believability: 2/5
    2. Salary cap constraints: Some believe that the team needed to free up cap space in order to make other roster moves, leading to the decision to trade Dončić. Believability: 3/5
    3. Lack of team success: If the team was consistently underperforming with Dončić as a key player, management may have felt the need to shake things up and trade him. Believability: 4/5
    4. Desire for a fresh start: Dončić may have expressed a desire to play for a different team or in a different city, prompting the trade. Believability: 3/5
    5. Strategic decision for long-term success: The team may have believed that trading Dončić would bring in valuable assets that could help build a stronger, more competitive team in the future. Believability: 5/5

      Overall, the most believable theory is the strategic decision for long-term success, as it aligns with the idea of making moves to improve the team’s future prospects.

    Tags:

    1. Luka Dončić trade rumors
    2. NBA trade speculations
    3. Luka Dončić trade analysis
    4. Dallas Mavericks trade decisions
    5. Luka Dončić trade theories

    #Luka #Dončić #traded #Rating #top #theories #based #believability

  • Severance Episode 3: Our Best and Worst Goat Theories


    This Article contains spoilers for Severance Season 2.

    Severance is a series shrouded in mystery, with each passing episode often raising more questions than answers while still managing to be incredibly satisfying. Still, in a series swimming in untold secrets, there is one question that we keep coming back to: WTF is the deal with the goats?

    Said goats made their triumphant return in this week’s episode as Mark S. (Adam Scott) and Helly (Britt Lower) make their way through the hallways of Lumon’s severed floor trying to get answers on Mark’s formerly believed to be dead wife, Gemma (Dichen Lachman). On their quest, they find themselves in a goat room with a small horde of goat herders who seem completely out of place in a Lumon facility and also somehow seem to outnumber the very goats in their charge.

    So, you know, again we have more questions than answers.

    Because of this, we decided to open the question wide to our staff: what the heck do you think is going on with the goats?

    Amelia Emberwing, Streaming Editor: The most demonic thing I’ve ever done (OK, the most demonic thing I’ve done this year…) is ask folks to fit these theories into a paragraph, and now here I am: hoisted by my own petard. This week’s episode might not have given us any new answers, but it did shift my focus from the goats to the goat people. I’m with most of the world in that I believe the goats are tied to the longevity of Kier Eagan in one way or another, but what the heck is going on with Gwendoline Christie’s character Lorne and her group of nomads? Does her outie wonder why she leaves her work in an office building every day smelling of goats and with straw in her hair? And what is this pouch situation all about?

    Michael Peyton, Director of Events and Partnerships: Since the beginning of the series, the actual work of the Macrodata Refinement Team has been shrouded in mystery. What exactly are they doing by moving those numbers into all of those little digital boxes? Fan theories abound that it has something to do with keeping members of the Eagan family, particularly Helena’s father Jame, alive – possibly with the ultimate goal of reincarnating Lumon founder and quasi-deity (in the Severance world at least) Kier Eagan. The goat room (specifically the fact that the room seems to be filled with baby goats) plays right into it. It’s entirely possible that the team in that room is conducting scientific experiments aiming to preserve the lives of goats long past their natural lifespan, cloning goats, or even (somehow) bringing deceased goats back from the dead in service of their ultimate goal of “bringing back” their leader, Kier.

    Ryan McCaffrey, Senior Executive Editor of Previews: I’m going to keep this one simple and not get too carried away with what I think the explanation will be for what is one of those outlandish moments from Season 1. My theory is that there’s something in the goats when they mature to a certain age – remember, the goat herder in that room said, “They’re not ready yet!” – that’s needed for the severance procedure. And Lumon does want to make severance a much bigger and more common thing than what we’re seeing in the show so far. So whether it’s that their DNA somehow goes into the severance chips or something else, I’m betting it has to do with scaling up the severance procedure on a global level.

    Leanne Butkovic, Editorial Project Manager: I think it has something to do with some form of genetically engineered breeding in the pursuit of the indefinite longevity of consciousness (a company with a “Perpetuity Wing” isn’t exactly subtle) and/or building a perfectly docile and complacent workforce with the ideal ratios of Kier’s Four Tempers. In Lumon’s vision of late stage capitalism, dying is no longer a good excuse to not come into work. This is relevant because I think the goats are connected, but a Season 1 theory I liked a lot posits that the MDR team’s role in bucketing seemingly meaningless numbers is actually quite consequential to Lumon’s goals. The numbers represent patterns of personality traits – given that certain nodules have specific feelings in the eye of the microdata refiner – that are funneled into five bins each containing shorthand for the tempers: Woe, Frolic, Dread, and Malice. Lumon has the technology to sever a brain’s consciousness; surely, they could develop it further to mold optimized human personalities from categorized data. To that end, I feel like the experiment of creating perfect goats has finally reached a point of semi-stability to move onto humans, and the new child supervisor Ms. Huang is the beta release. Maybe this is going a bridge too far, but wouldn’t you agree that she looks suspiciously like what might have been the daughter of Mark and his wife Gemma/Ms. Casey if they had a kid? (Didn’t Dolly the sheep age unusually fast?)

    Dan Stapleton, Director of Reviews: I don’t think what we’re seeing from the innies’ perspective is reality. The numbers on the computers aren’t actually numbers and the goats aren’t actually goats. Anyone with the brain implant technology needed to sever a person’s memories would plausibly have the technology to alter their perception so that they aren’t aware of what they’re truly doing, which could be something super messed up. What that is, I dare not venture to guess.

    Scott Collura, Associate Director of Features: DO THEY HAVE POUCHES. That’s what the one and only Gwendoline Christie (and her coworkers) want to know about Mark and Helly when they find a new goat room in this week’s episode of Severance. As the apparent head of her department – Mammalians Nurturable, of course – Christie’s character has a lot on her mind it seems, not the least of which is the question of whether or not the pair from Macrodata Refinement is there to kill her. (With their pouches maybe?) But while more questions are raised than answered by the visit to this expanded goat room, one thing is now clear: The goats are being tended to for something other than typical animal husbandry. Are they integral to the severance process? Does severance involve pouches? How can Christie’s character be certain that Mark and Helly don’t have pouches? They only showed her part of their bellies! And come to think of it, does Christie have a pouch? Do Christie’s rough-around-the-edges colleagues sleep in goat pouches!? How big are goat pouches? Wait, what… goats don’t have pouches?

    Never mind.

    Erik Adams, Entertainment Reviews Editor: When it comes to my TV puzzle boxes, I’m much more Leftovers than Lost: My preference is to let the mystery be, so I’d be perfectly satisfied if we never get a straight answer about the goats. But I did get the feeling from this week’s episode that the goat room could be some sort of probationary purgatory between standard (using that term very loosely here) work on the severed floor and retirement – the break room, but the break lasts a lot longer. The hostility of Christie’s character, the generally feral appearance and attitudes of her co-workers – this says to me that Lumon has a way of dealing with innies who aren’t a good culture fit (barf) but aren’t yet ready to return to a 100 percent outie existence.

    Obviously, we want to hear your theories too! Drop ’em in the comments.



In the latest episode of Severance, we were finally given a glimpse into the mysterious world of the goats that roam the facility. As we eagerly dissected every detail, our theories about these enigmatic creatures ranged from the plausible to the downright outrageous. Here are our best and worst goat theories from episode 3:

Best Goat Theories:
1. The goats are a form of therapy for the employees, providing a sense of calm and companionship in an otherwise stressful environment.
2. The goats are being used as test subjects for a secret experiment, possibly related to the brain-altering procedures being conducted on the employees.
3. The goats are actually intelligent beings that are somehow connected to the strange occurrences happening within the facility.

Worst Goat Theories:
1. The goats are aliens in disguise, sent to spy on the employees and gather information about their activities.
2. The goats are actually robotic creations designed to monitor and control the employees’ behavior.
3. The goats are a hallucination induced by the mind-altering procedures, and they don’t actually exist at all.

As the mystery of the goats continues to unfold, we can only hope that our wildest theories will be either confirmed or debunked in the episodes to come. What are your best and worst goat theories from Severance episode 3? Share them in the comments below!

Tags:

  1. Severance Episode 3
  2. Goat Theories
  3. Best Goat Theories
  4. Worst Goat Theories
  5. Severance TV show
  6. TV show theories
  7. Speculative theories
  8. Mystery series
  9. Thriller TV show
  10. Plot analysis.

#Severance #Episode #Worst #Goat #Theories

  • What — or who — started the Palisades fire? Two leading theories emerge


    For the last few weeks, a team of investigators from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has worked out of a command post in the Highlands neighborhood of Pacific Palisades.

    It’s here, near a popular hiking trail, where officials believe the Palisades fire began around 10:30 a.m. Jan. 7. The remnants of thousands of burned-out homes line the path the flames took down from the hillside as it charged all the way to the ocean.

    But the cause remains a mystery that this team is trying to solve.

    Investigators have scoured each part of the trail and hillside, breaking it down into a grid. They have examined 250 leads, obtained 90 hours of relevant video and conducted 50 interviews.

    Fifteen ATF team members across the country with various science backgrounds armed with high-tech mapping, drones and a portable lab are aiding in the investigation, officials said.

    ATF officials declined to provide information about what they suspect started the Palisades fire, which charred 23,400 acres and leveled more than 6,800 structures, including many homes.

    But sources with knowledge of the inquiry said there are two leading theories: An 8-acre blaze that fire officials thought they had put out on Jan. 1 in the same area reignited and spread because of intense winds, or a new fire was somehow sparked nearby that morning. Either scenario, the sources said, would likely be a human-caused fire because there are no power poles near the point of origin and trail area is well-traveled.

    A focus on earlier fire

    The Los Angeles Fire Department declined to answer specific questions about the Jan. 1 blaze, called the Lachman fire, saying the files were “sealed” and were part of the ongoing investigation into the Palisades fire.

    “We won’t leave a fire that has any hot spots. But with that, I will tell you that the investigation, the team that we have on board right now, will be able to determine whether or not that did indeed happen,” Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley told residents during a community forum this month.”I can look you in the eye and tell you that full disclosure if that indeed is what they find out, we will tell you that.”

    The Lachman fire was reported about 12:17 a.m. on New Year’s Day in the hillside above Pacific Palisades by a resident whose home is about two blocks from the popular Skull Rock trail. Sources with knowledge of the investigation who were not authorized to speak publicly told The Times the Lachman fire appears to have been sparked by fireworks.

    Water-dropping helicopters initially were not able to fly because of wind, according to the agency, but around 1:40 a.m. they began launching an aerial attack to support crews on the ground. News footage captured the charge, with walls of flames towering over homes and firefighters with hoses running into backyards.

    Shortly after 3:30 a.m., fire officials reported they had stopped forward progress of the blaze.

    A little over an hour later, LAFD reported that firefighters had “completed the hose line around the perimeter of the fire and it is fully contained.” However, some firefighters remained at the site to mop up and ensure the fire didn’t flare up again.

    Assistant Chief Joe Everett, who oversees LAFD’s West Bureau, which includes Pacific Palisades, said firefighters conducted a cold trailing operation at the site in which crews feel for any lingering heat along the fire’s edge, dig out every live spot and trench live edges of the fire to ensure nothing can later flare up.

    They kept patrol on the site for more than 36 hours, Everett told residents at a community meeting this month.

    “I can tell you those people on that fire ground were highly qualified and well trusted,” he said.

    Everett expressed skepticism that the Palisades fire was sparked by a rekindling of the earlier blaze.

    “That fire was dead out. If it is determined that was the cause, it would be a phenomenon,” he said.

    LAFD officials declined to detail whether they conducted thermal imaging of the area in the aftermath. Agencies frequently use thermal imaging during large wildfires to find hot spots during periods when there is no visible light or in conditions with heavy smog or mist.

    Another fire in the same area

    UC San Diego cameras that monitor the mountains and hills, including Pacific Palisades, captured the Jan. 1 blaze. The Times reviewed available footage over the next six days, and no new smoke was visible. But about 10:30 a.m. Jan. 7, new smoke is seen in the same area.

    By midmorning, firefighters were back at the same Palisades hillside amid hurricane-force winds fighting what would become a much larger inferno: the Palisades fire.

    Palisades resident Darrin Hurwitz told The Times this month that he was hiking in the area — a five-mile loop that took him above Skull Rock and gave him a view of the burn scar from the New Year’s Day fire — on the morning of Jan. 7. It’s a busy trail, but on that day the open space seemed quiet, he said.

    “Around the same time, I noticed a bit of a smoky smell. I didn’t make much of it. I figured it was either coming from somewhere else or was the remnants of the fire itself,” he said.

    Others also smelled smoke in the area that morning, but flames weren’t seen until about 10:15 a.m.

    A Los Angeles firefighter who was among the first on the scene acknowledged over the radio that they were going “back up to where the Lachman fire was.”

    How the investigation will play out

    The ATF is seeking to issue a report on the cause of the fire in about 60 days. That would be considerably faster than for the deadly August 2023 fire on the Hawaiian island of Maui, which took a year. But that may depend on whether more sophisticated tests are needed back at the bureau’s Maryland fire lab.

    Complex fire investigations in which a cause isn’t immediately clear can sometimes take many months to conclude. Typically, investigators will start by finding the area of ignition, which they determine largely through burn patterns. In a massive inferno, such as the Palisades fire, that process alone can take more than a week, experts say.

    After they find the location of the fire start, investigators will search for any evidence that could point to the source of ignition and any witness statements or videos that can help them piece together how the fire began.

    LAPD officers keep the public and media out of the Skull Rock trailhead in an area that is under investigation as a potential starting point for the Palisades fire on Jan. 13, 2025 in Pacific Palisades.

    (Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

    Materials found at a fire scene will often need to be tested, and those results can take weeks or months, said Gianni Muschetto, staff chief of law enforcement for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

    “These larger fires take time,” Muschetto said. “Sometimes it’s months, and sometimes just based on the evidence we have that needs to be evaluated, it just takes time to do.”

    The first images of Palisades fire, as it ignited in the brush on a trail above Pacific Palisades, are eerily similar to those captured as fire lighted up the night’s sky as the new year began.

    Fire experts say it’s possible for a blaze to rekindle days and even months in some environments after an initial fire is thought to be extinguished.

    The immense Oakland Hills fire in 1991, which destroyed 2,500 structures, exploded after firefighters believed they contained an earlier 6-acre fire the day before. Firefighters left equipment at the scene but did not continuously monitor it. Winds picked up, and the conflagration consumed homes.

    The Maui fire, the deadliest in more than a century, killed at least 101 people and also ignited from an earlier brush fire caused by downed power lines that firefighters believed they had snuffed.

    Rekindling days or weeks after a wildfire has been put out is not a phenomenon that frequently occurs. It’s more typical for rekindling to happen when firefighters are still on scene mopping up, allowing them to get control of it quickly, Muschetto said.

    “You’re trying to get all those hot spots out, but occasionally something will still hold that heat and blow something across the line or burn under through the roots and have enough exposure to vegetative material to burn out and cause a fire,” he said.

    Ed Nordskog, a former Los Angeles County sheriff’s arson investigator who looked into 2,500 fires, said that in forestry environments particularly, embers can bury themselves in tree roots and get covered by heavy ash. They can stay buried until a wind event sets them free.

    The U.S. Forest Service uses infrared technology to monitor fires underbrush for sometimes weeks after a blaze is contained. Nordskog said thermal imaging is the safest way to check to prevent such an issue.

    But even that isn’t a perfect solution.

    “A super small smoldering fire may not put off enough heat signature for that imagery to pick it up,” Muschetto said. “That’s why the crews on the ground, especially when they are mopping up along the fire’s edge, they’re really looking for anything that’s smoking, anything that might be able to hold heat and watering that down.”



    The Palisades fire, which has been raging in Southern California, has sparked speculation about its cause. Two leading theories have emerged about what — or who — started the devastating blaze.

    Some believe that the fire was sparked by a lightning strike, as there were reports of thunderstorms in the area around the time the fire broke out. Lightning strikes are a common cause of wildfires, especially in dry and windy conditions like those currently plaguing California.

    Others, however, suspect that the fire may have been started by human activity. With the fire breaking out near a popular hiking trail, some believe that a hiker may have accidentally started the blaze by discarding a cigarette or failing to properly extinguish a campfire.

    Authorities are still investigating the cause of the Palisades fire, and it may be some time before a definitive answer is found. In the meantime, firefighters are working tirelessly to contain the blaze and protect the surrounding communities.

    As we await more information, it’s important to remember the importance of fire safety and prevention, whether in the wilderness or at home. By being vigilant and responsible, we can help prevent devastating wildfires like the Palisades fire from occurring in the future.

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  • Dave Franco to play Luigi Mangione in his biopic? Actor reacts to memes and possible theories


    The internet is abuzz with the latest dream fan casting, and this time, it involves none other than the talented and almost universally loved Dave Franco. Over the past several days, there has been a growing contingent of netizens vocalizing their support behind the star portraying Luigi Mangione in a potential biopic.

    Mangione has risen to infamy after being accused of the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson on December 4, 2024. While he is currently awaiting trial, the context of his crime and his good looks have combined to garner him an outpour of public sympathy.

    Many go as far as to consider this a potential breaking point for insurance companies in America, as costs and premiums continue to rise while the average citizen struggles to afford basic health care.

    Off the heels of this trending story, Franco, for his part, has been linked to playing the possible role because they share an uncanny resemblance to one another. Doppelganger alert!

    (Post via X/@THR)

    Dave Franco Responds

    While at this year’s Sundance Film Festival alongside his wife Alison Brie and director Michael Shanks to promote their film Together (a festival darling), the dream casting was addressed by a representative from The Hollywood Reporter.

    Someone from the publication is distinctly heard asking from off-camera,

    “Has anyone approached you to play Luigi? To play hot Luigi?”

    Brie, no stranger to comedic timing, was quick to reply,

    “Anyone? Do you mean everyone?”

    The 39-year-old actor then went on to share,

    “I have never received more texts in my life about anything. Not just friends. Anyone who has my phone number has reached out about it.”

    Clearly, anyone with access to the star is eager to see him in the role and is blowing up his phone to share the feeling as the memes and social content continue to fill our feeds. Whether or not this comes to fruition is another story entirely. What is of note, however, is that Franco was not dismissive, nor did he shut down the speculation, so there is a chance this project will eventually come to life.

    As of now, Mangione has pleaded not guilty to the New York State charges for which he is awaiting trial. While federal charges also loom, his legal team has not yet been requested to enter a plea on these charges as of the latest update from the court and his attorneys.

    Dave Franco’s career explored

    Franco’s diverse filmography includes roles in Oscar-nominated and critically acclaimed hit The Disaster Artist, as well as memorable supporting roles in the Neighbors comedy franchise alongside Seth Rogen and Zac Efron. He also made his presence felt in Apple TV’s The Afterparty series, although his work as Eric Molson on the Jump Street films may still stand out as his best work.

    In 2020, Franco made his directorial debut in the horror thriller The Rental. He wrote the screenplay for the film alongside collaborator Joe Swanberg, which stars an ensemble cast of familiar faces, including Alison Brie, Dan Stevens, Jeremy Allen White, and Sheila Vand. It was released to generally favorable reviews on July 24, 2020.