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- Punxsutawney Phil made his annual prediction in front of a crowd of enthusiastic fans.
- The groundhog emerges from his burrow every year to see his shadow – or not.
- Statistics show Phil’s tongue-in-cheek prognostications aren’t very accurate.
Before a huge crowd filled with excitement and anticipation, and bundled up against temperatures in the 20s, the groundhog known as Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow Sunday morning in central Pennsylvania. That means we could see six more weeks of winter , at least according to Groundhog Day lore.
Phil’s prediction comes on the heels of some of the most extreme winter weather in recent memory. Last month was the coldest January on record in the U.S. since 2014, and Jan. 21 was the second-coldest day nationally in 29 years. And don’t forget Winter Storm Enzo, which broke snowfall records across parts of the South, including more than 9 inches in the Florida Panhandle.
(MORE: Here’s How Much Snow, Cold Is Typically Left After Groundhog Day)
Our latest outlook for February shows warmer-than-average temperatures for most of the East and South, but a colder February for the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Is Punxsutawney Phil Accurate?
Last February, the groundhog didn’t seehis shadow. “While there is no scientific basis for forecasting how early spring weather will arrive based simply on one morning’s cloud cover, Punxsutawney Phil’s early spring prediction last year couldn’t have worked out better,” weather.com senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said about the 2024 prediction.
“A late February ‘heat wave’ smashed February or winter records from Texas to the Great Lakes, with 70s as far north as Michigan. Neighboring Ohio and West Virginia had their warmest February-April period in 130 years.”
(MORE: Fun Facts About Groundhog Day)
An analysis by the National Weather Service found that, over the last 20 years, Punxsy Phil was right 35% of the time. This year, the NWS decided to have a little more fun by pitting Phil’s accuracy against 18 competing groundhogs, stuffed imposters and even a turtle. Phil came in third to last.
How Did Groundhog Day Start?
Groundhog Day organizers acknowledge that the “holiday” exists mostly just to break up the monotony of long, dark winters. The idea came to the U.S. with German immigrants and originally involved a hedgehog, according to the official historyof the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. The town held its first Groundhog Day celebration in 1887. A series of toothy rodents named Punxsutawney Phil have risen from the burrow every Feb. 2 since.
Weather.com staff writer Jan Childs covers breaking news and features related to weather, space, climate change, the environment and everything in between.
