Tag: Transaction

I’m sure that Yankees fans are well and truly tired of hearing about Juan Soto. We get it, he likes the other New York team more. So don’t worry, friends. I won’t mention Juan Soto, unparalleled hitting genius, after this paragraph. Sure, the ghost of Juan Soto, signer of the biggest contract in professional sports history, might inform the rest of the moves the Yankees are making. Sure, not signing superstar Juan Soto after his incandescent 2024 season makes all the rest of the team’s moves feel minor. But again, you won’t see the words “Juan Soto” after this instance, so let’s get to the moves the Yankees are making to bolster their team in the aftermath of losing one of the brightest stars in the game.

Signing Paul Goldschmidt
The Yankees are going to need some offense if they want to replace Jua – whoa, almost broke my own rule right out of the gate. Uh… the Yankees are going to need some offense, period. They were a top-heavy team last year between Aaron Judge and his running mate, name tastefully withheld. Giancarlo Stanton’s playoff surge notwithstanding, the existing roster just didn’t have that much juice beyond Judge. Sure, adding Cody Bellinger was nice, but they needed to do more. Paul Goldschmidt, signed for one year and $12.5 million, is definitely more, it’s just a question of how much after his bummer of a 2024 season.

As Michael Baumann detailed earlier this winter, Goldschmidt’s previously reliable production tanked last season. As Michael also pointed out, he wasn’t half bad in the second half, with a 120 wRC+ and completely acceptable peripherals underpinning it. That’s not far off from what Steamer projects for Goldschmidt this year – they have him at a 114 wRC+ and as roughly an average player as a result.

That might not sound like a big addition in a vacuum, but consider the context of the Yankees. Last year, hitters playing first base for New York compiled a .216/.284/.335 batting line, good for a 76 wRC+. Goldschmidt’s abysmal first half, the one that had people thinking he was completely cooked? He hit .230/.291/.373 for an 87 wRC+. If we’re talking about improvements over last year, getting to play a plus bat instead of a gaping hole at the easiest defensive position on the field sounds pretty nice.

Of course, Goldschmidt could absolutely live down to last year’s crop of first basemen, but I don’t think it’s particularly likely. He’s not what he once was, but neither did he look absolutely overmatched in 2024. He still launched 22 homers and made consistently loud contact. He swung and missed more than he ever has in an attempt to keep that power, and he walked at a career-low rate as a result. That’s scary. If he put up a sub-100 wRC+ season, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised.

But I also wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he had a resurgent year. We’re talking about a star playing out the end of the string, not a washed-up never-was. Goldschmidt has made adjustments throughout his career, rebounding to prominence after down years. He’s willing to change his bat or his swing or his preparation to keep improving, and while past performance is no guarantee of future results, I’d rather bet on a rebound season from a guy with 56 career WAR and an MVP trophy than most of the other options available anywhere near Goldschmidt’s price range.

One reason for slight optimism: Goldschmidt has rarely missed a game throughout his career. He’s played in at least 150 games every year since breaking his hand in 2014 (setting aside his 58 games in the COVID-shortened 2020 season). He’s 14th in plate appearances over the last three years, with only Freddie Freeman playing more than him at close to his age. Now that he’s on a role player’s deal instead of a superstar contract and implied captain’s C, he’ll undoubtedly play less, and hopefully that extra rest will do him good. It also surely won’t hurt that he’ll get platooned more in New York than he did in St. Louis (never), giving him a favorable matchup against lefties more frequently. Would a 130 wRC+ bounce-back surprise you? If it happened, I’m pretty sure you’d just nod your head and say “yeah, sounds right for a guy like him.”

Is that the most exciting signing in the world? No. But it’s a smart one, even if Goldschmidt is another righty in the lineup behind Judge. Short of just spending more money (hey, not a bad solution!), I think that the Yankees did pretty well at rebuilding their offense. I have a hard time seeing a player more likely to deliver a truly difference-making offensive season. Thanks to Goldschmidt’s traditional look, we’ll also get to see how much stubble still constitutes “no beard.” I wouldn’t say that this is my favorite signing of the offseason, but I certainly think it’s a reasonable one.

Acquiring Fernando Cruz
My dad is a talkative card player. We’ve played a fair number of games of bridge in my lifetime, and nearly every time he makes a play that improves his hand by moving the lead around, he’ll chuckle to himself and say “key unblocking maneuver!”, usually with the excitement I’d reserve for finding a good parking space at Costco or winning the lottery. Doesn’t matter whether he played the best hand of his life or landed on something a first-grader would have seen, the joy is genuine. My point is that I can absolutely imagine Brian Cashman saying “key unblocking maneuver!” and giggling so much he bounced in his chair after trading Jose Trevino to the Reds for Fernando Cruz and Alex Jackson.

Trevino was a great change of scenery candidate. He’s an elite framer, unquestionably one of the best in baseball. The less said about his bat and throwing arm, however, the better. In recent years, that’s meant decreasing playing time as the Yankees hunt for more offense. Austin Wells is now the everyday starter, which left Trevino as an under-utilized backup. He notched 1.6 WAR in just 74 games (234 PA) last year. He’s good enough defensively to at least be in a time share, but the Yankees wanted to give Wells the full-time starter role. So they traded Trevino for an upgrade elsewhere on the roster and a more suitable backup catcher.

The upgrade elsewhere? That’d be Cruz, splitter merchant and LIDOM legend. Cruz’s major league career is either exceptional (3.07 FIP, 3.1 WAR in 147 innings) or mediocre (4.52 ERA, 0.9 RA9-WAR) depending on what you make of his underlying statistics. He strikes out more than a third of the batters he faces, walks a ton more, and basically throws his splitter whether it makes sense or not.

I land more on the exceptional side of the argument, for what it’s worth. I think that Cruz’s BABIP and strand rates are probably just random blips, and that his ability to miss bats will win out in the end. I wouldn’t want him as the closer of a playoff club, but 160 relievers threw 50 or more innings in 2024, and Cruz was sixth in strikeout rate. I’m fairly certain that the Yankees can find a way to turn that standout skill into a useful reliever, particularly given that he’ll be third or so in the bullpen pecking order. Recent vintages of Yankees teams have been built around excellent bullpens, and adding Cruz to assist Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a good way to avoid a repeat of the 2024 playoffs, when Aaron Boone called on his top two relievers in every game without fail because he didn’t really trust anyone else.

Now, is Jackson a downgrade from Trevino? Definitely. He’s a roughly replacement level player – competent but unexciting defense, but offense worse even than Trevino. Sure, it’s a small sample, but he’s a career .132/.224/.232 hitter. The Reds signed him as a minor league free agent this winter, in fact; he never even played a game for them. Maybe the Yankees will end up calling up a minor leaguer, or maybe they’ll use Jackson sparingly and give Wells a huge workload. Either way, he’s a minor throw-in on the trade, but a useful one for New York if he can give them some competent innings behind the obvious starter.

One team’s key unblocking maneuver – the Yankees turned an overqualified backup catcher into an exciting reliever – can also be another team’s treasure. Trevino is a really good player! He’s too good to be a pure backup. Cincinnati gave Tyler Stephenson the lion’s share of time behind the plate in 2024, and he was, to put it optimistically, below average. His skills lie in the batter’s box, not 16 inches behind it. He’s a poor receiver, an indifferent blocker, and a poor thrower.

He might be marginally better than Trevino at controlling the running game, but on the whole, he’s far worse with catcher’s gear on, and I think that the Reds would love to give him more of a breather at DH or first base when they can. We’re talking about a mountain of a man, 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, who displays phenomenal power despite crouching all game. There’s a great offensive player in there somewhere, and I think that the Reds are planning on giving him reps at other positions in an attempt to decrease his wear and tear, and provide their pitching staff some free strikes here and there.

That said, I’m not exactly sure where that playing time will come from just yet. Even after trading Jonathan India, the Reds have too many positionless bats. They need to find playing time for Stephenson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, and Jeimer Candelario. But I think that problem will mostly sort itself out – someone will get injured or hit poorly, and starters need rest anyway. If the Reds find 100-200 plate appearances for Stephenson away from catcher, Trevino will be a huge boost to their chances, and I think that’s a reasonable expectation. Our Depth Chart projections agree with me, penciling Stephenson in for 133 plate appearances between DH and first base.

In other words – and stop me if you’ve heard this one before – I like this trade for both teams. The long-term consequences are minor – Trevino is a free agent after this season, and Cruz is a 35-year-old reliever, so more of a win-now player than a foundational piece. Note: an earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Cruz will be a free agent after this season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration, not free agency. The net change in talent is small in both directions. But I think that each team’s roster makes more sense after this move, and it’s hard to ask for more than that from a minor trade.

Now, will these deals make the Yankees forget about the lefty slugger who shall not be named? Probably not. But nothing’s going to do that. These are both smart roster moves that complement the existing team. The Yankees have already made some splashes this winter. I think they’ll likely make another move or two, and I’ll certainly give their front office grief if they don’t. But not every move needs to be a blockbuster, and both of these get my seal of approval.