Tag: Vucic

  • Serbian students block Belgrade road junction to increase pressure on Vučić | Serbia


    Serbian students have staged a daylong blockage of a major traffic intersection in Belgrade with the support of farmers, stepping up pressure on the president, Aleksandar Vučić.

    The wave of student-led demonstrations began as a protest against government corruption after the collapse of a roof of a railway station in the northern city of Novi Sad on 1 November, which killed 15 people.

    Despite attacks on the protesters and limited government concessions, the near daily protests have grown and spread, affecting more than 100 cities and towns and drawing in increasing support from members of the judiciary, teachers, private businesses and the general public.

    On Monday the demonstrators occupied the Autokomanda junction, where two major roads from the south-east converge on the way to Belgrade’s centre.

    Thousands of Belgrade residents joined the protests along with some farmers who brought their tractors to the capital, some of which were used to protect the protesters, after two serious incidents of cars ramming the crowds of demonstrators.

    The appearance of farmers and tractors was an echo of the mass protests and march on Belgrade that ultimately brought down the regime of Vučić’s predecessor Slobodan Milošević in 2000. Milošević’s fall, however, only came when key elements of the security forces turned against him.

    After a record 100,000 people turned out to protest in Belgrade on 22 December, Vučić threatened them, saying Serbia’s special forces would “throw them around in 6-7 seconds”. But the threat drew widespread ridicule and he has so far not attempted to use the security forces to break up the protests.

    The government has sought to meet some of the students’ demands, most importantly by declassifying some documents about the Novi Sad station canopy collapse, which happened soon after the station had been renovated by a Chinese-led consortium.

    The protesters claim the collapse was caused by corruption and cutting corners in the construction work. Thirteen people have been charged over the disaster, including Serbia’s former transport minister Goran Vesić, who resigned days after the collapse.

    The government released more relevant documents on Sunday but it is unclear whether it will be enough to defuse the demonstrations. The protest leaders are also demanding an end to prosecutions against demonstrators, the arrest and prosecution of those involved in attacks on the protesters, and increased funding for education.

    Alida Vračić, a co-founder and the executive director of Populari, a thinktank focused on the western Balkans, said the tenacity of the demonstrations represented a serious challenge to Vučić, who has dominated Serbian politics since becoming prime minister in 2014.

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    “They could indeed be a threat because of their unique approach. These students surpass the usual opposition and bypass the standard playbook for dealing with ineffective governance. They don’t seek dialogue or compromise, they demand that institutions simply do their jobs,” Vračić said. “This straightforwardness is what stings the most and remains far beyond the grasp of the Serbian political toolbox.

    “By rallying thousands around a unifying demand – justice – they’ve found a powerful and resonant message and mobilised thousands. In the Balkans, where injustice has been endured for far too long, their call for change feels urgent. It’s about time that changed and spilled over elsewhere.”

    Edward Joseph, a former US diplomat at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said it was possible the political tide was turning in Serbia.

    “Teachers – and many other professions – followed the lead of students who have protested en masse since the 1 November train station canopy collapse in Novi Sad,” he wrote in a social media post. “Reportedly, even judges – prominent state employees – left the courthouses to support passing protesters … The fear factor is gone. Even in a degraded Balkans democracy, the people still have agency and can still demand accountability.”



    Serbian students have taken to the streets once again to protest against President Aleksandar Vučić’s government. In a bold move, they have blocked a major road junction in Belgrade to increase pressure on Vučić and his administration.

    The students are demanding greater transparency and accountability from the government, as well as more investment in education and opportunities for young people. They are also calling for an end to what they see as the erosion of democratic institutions and freedoms in Serbia.

    The blockade has caused traffic chaos in the capital city, with long queues of vehicles unable to pass through the junction. Despite the inconvenience to commuters, the students are determined to make their voices heard and force the government to listen to their demands.

    This latest protest comes on the heels of a series of demonstrations against Vučić’s government, which have been ongoing for several months. The students show no signs of backing down, and their determination to bring about change in Serbia is clear.

    As the blockade continues, all eyes are on President Vučić and his response to the students’ demands. Will he listen to their concerns and take action to address them, or will he continue to ignore their calls for reform? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the students are not backing down anytime soon.

    Tags:

    1. Serbia student protest
    2. Belgrade road block
    3. Vučić pressure tactics
    4. Student activism in Serbia
    5. Political demonstrations in Belgrade
    6. Serbian government protests
    7. Belgrade traffic disruption
    8. Student resistance in Serbia
    9. Demonstrations against Vučić
    10. Serbia political unrest

    #Serbian #students #block #Belgrade #road #junction #increase #pressure #Vučić #Serbia

  • Will U.S. Bosnia Policy Tilt Toward Vucic and Dodik?


    Most discussions in Washington about the Trump administration’s approach to global affairs relate to Ukraine, China, the Middle East, and most recently Greenland; there is little talk of the Western Balkans. Nonetheless, shifts in U.S. foreign policy in the region could upset the fragile status quo prevailing there. The Western Balkans’ current state of affairs and delicate geopolitical equilibrium have prevented Bosnia and Herzegovina from sliding back into civil war while keeping the Serbia-Kosovo conflict frozen for the past 26 years.

    Serb nationalists, in particular, are hopeful about U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. They are optimistic that his administration will align Washington more closely with Belgrade and the Bosnian Serb statelet of Republika Srpska.

    Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik want the United States to counter other western governments and institutions that strongly support Kosovo’s independence and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s centralized structure as established by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, the U.S.-brokered peace deal that rigidly divided the war-torn country into two main entities—the Bosnian-Serb Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which both exist under a central government that has a rotating presidency among the three main communities: Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs.

    Under the banner of defending Serb interests and advancing the cause of Serb unification, Dodik has spent years undermining the Dayton Agreement by obstructing Bosnia’s national institutions through various actions deemed dangerous and destabilizing by the United States and other western governments.

    In practical terms, this would mean easing U.S. constraints on pro-Russian Serbs who desire Serb unification and oppose sanctions on Moscow. Such constraints and pressures include sanctions on Dodik and ultranationalists, including Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, who previously headed Serbia’s Security Intelligence Agency and was known for his ties to Moscow and his harassment of anti-Putin voices in Serbia’s Russian émigré community.

    Additionally, the previous U.S. administration recently imposed sanctions on NIS, Serbia’s oil and gas company, which is majority owned by Gazprom. It is not difficult to imagine Trump easing pressure on Serbia over its relationship with Russia while keeping quiet about Serbia’s human rights issues.


    Serbs who believe in “Greater Serbia” stake claims to land in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere outside modern-day Serbia’s borders. During the 1990s, then-Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic’s pursuit of a Greater Serbia was a major factor in the wars that tore the region apart.

    Although Vucic has said his government has no interest in redrawing international borders, many of Serbia’s neighbors suspect that Belgrade patiently sees realization of Greater Serbia as a longer-term objective. A 13-page declaration—adopted by Serbia and Republika Srpska in June 2024—outlines a vision for Serb dominance that would place portions of Kosovo back under Belgrade’s control and violate Bosnian sovereignty.

    Shortly after Trump’s electoral victory last November, Vucic had a “very cordial” phone call with him, invited him to Belgrade, and credited him with knowing “many things about Serbia,” and noted that Trump’s approval ratings in Serbia are higher than in any other European country.

    Richard Grenell, the special presidential envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations between 2019 and 2021, was a central figure in maintaining a friendly Washington-Belgrade relationship during Trump’s first term. Throughout Joe Biden’s presidency, Grenell visited Belgrade multiple times. In 2023, Grenell received order of the Serbian flag, and Vucic praised him for “witnessing the truth about the events in Kosovo and elsewhere in the region.”

    Regardless of Grenell’s role in Trump’s second administration, Kosovo is likely nervous about Trump 2.0, and for good reason. The United States has recognized Kosovo’s independence since 2008, and today the majority of United Nations member states—including the vast majority of European countries—do, too. But Serbia, Russia, China, and a long list of mostly non-Western states recognize Kosovo as part of Serbia.

    Because of Russia and China’s positions in the U.N. Security Council, it is essentially a given that the U.N. will not formally recognize Kosovo’s independence. Trump has previously threatened to withdraw U.S. military forces from the Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led peacekeeping team, alarming officials in Pristina.

    However, even if Trump makes good on this threat, that would not necessarily prove an existential crisis for Kosovo. KFOR should be capable of continuing its operations in the event of a U.S. pullout, mostly because Pristina has prepared for this possible scenario by strengthening its relationship with Turkey in recent years.

    In the aftermath of violence that broke out between KFOR and Serbia in May 2023, Ankara deployed a commando battalion to Kosovo. The Turks have also sold Bayraktar drones to Pristina. In late 2024, the Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation (a Turkish state-owned defense company) and Kosovo inked a deal to build an ammunition manufacturing factory in Kosovo.

    In late 2023, Dodik said Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election would make for a “better geopolitical situation for Republika Srpska” and that under such circumstances he would declare the Serb entity’s independence. After Trump won, Dodik declared it was a “victory” for Republika Srpska, too, and wore a MAGA hat outside his presidential palace. Banja Luka maintains good relations with Moscow, which leverages the tense situation in Bosnia to Russia’s advantage, viewing Republika Srpska as a “Balkan Transnistria”—a reference to the Russian-dominated sliver of land in Moldova.

    Likewise, a pro-Russian enclave within Bosnia keeps NATO and the European Union nervous about instability in the Western Balkans—a tactic that the Kremlin can always use to distract from Ukraine—and creates an issue that prevents Bosnia from joining NATO.

    At the same time, Western sanctions on Dodik have pushed Republika Srpska closer to China. In 2016, Republika Srpska and China entered into a cooperation agreement that formalized ties, and China has invested in construction projects and power plants throughout the Bosnian Serb enclave over the years.

    Washington and London have sanctioned Dodik for his corruption and actions that threaten Bosnia’s fragile equilibrium. The United States, under President Barack Obama, first sanctioned the Kremlin-friendly Bosnian Serb leader in January 2017 for defying orders from Bosnia’s Constitutional Court. Dodik hopes that Trump will ease U.S. pressure on him, giving him free rein to obstruct the Dayton Agreement.


    Power brokers in Banja Luka are optimistic that Washington could break with most EU and NATO members—which see preservation of the Dayton Agreement as key to stability and security in southeastern Europe—and instead align with Hungary vis-à-vis the Western Balkans. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has close relationships with Vucic, Dodik, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has made Hungary the EU’s most sympathetic nation when it comes to ending Western pressure on Dodik. Orban, Vucic, and Dodik have established a triangular brotherhood, and some bet that Trump will become the fourth figure in it.

    If the Bosnian Serb strongman succeeds in getting Washington to lift sanctions, he will “surely be emboldened to go on with his agenda,” said Vladimir Trapara, a senior research fellow at the Belgrade-based Institute of International Politics and Economics. Although Dodik may talk about separatism to rally his constituents in Republika Srpska, he might not ever make such a bold move given various practical considerations, including risks of a new war in the Balkans.

    Trapara drew a distinction between Dodik’s populism-driven agenda and his “real political goals.” The Bosnian Serb leader tends to play the separatist card to whip up support from Serb nationalists when doing so makes for good politics, only to focus more on administrative issues when emotions are less charged.

    Known for his transactional approach to foreign policy, Trump will likely seek major diplomatic and business deals in the Western Balkans. The Trump family’s business dealings in Serbia include Affinity Partners (his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s investment firm) securing a 99-year permit to develop a luxury hotel in Belgrade at a site that was bombed by NATO in 1999 and investing roughly $1 billion in luxury hotels and villas on Albania’s coast.

    Such business interests may well factor into the Trump administration’s approach to this region, possibly complicating the picture with interests in Albania running counter to an increasingly pro-Belgrade policy. After all, Trump is known for making foreign-policy decisions based on the highest bidder and through personal connections, rather than traditional institutions.

    In terms of Bosnia’s territorial integrity, authorities in Banja Luka seem to believe that the Trump administration might deprioritize the Dayton Agreement’s enforcement mechanisms. Trump’s general lack of interest in so-called transatlantic values, combined with his good relations with Orban and Vucic, might lead power brokers in Republika Srpska to have high hopes about Trump 2.0.

    “While Belgrade may not openly pursue territorial ambitions, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could offer opportunities to push nationalist goals subtly,” said Petar Milutinovic, a research associate from the Belgrade-based Institute of European Studies. “Dodik, in particular, might exploit perceived U.S. disengagement to intensify calls for Republika Srpska’s independence.”

    But things could turn out differently—and assumptions about Trump’s transactional foreign-policy approach being inherently positive for Serbia are overly simplistic. Albania and Kosovo spend money on U.S. lobbying efforts to advance their own interests, which include persuading Washington to advocate for Kosovo’s independence, bolster the Albania-U.S. alliance, and maintain pressure on Belgrade.

    There could also be a role for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, given Ankara’s close relations with Sarajevo, Tirana, and Pristina. “Good relations between Erdogan and Trump, if used wisely, [have] the potential to improve U.S. relations with Bosniaks and Albanians, which are [currently] pretty dysfunctional,” explained Jahja Muhasilovic, a geopolitical analyst and an associate professor at the International University of Sarajevo.


    If Trump succeeds—as promised—in freezing the Russia-Ukraine war, with portions of Ukrainian land remaining under Russian control, the reverberations would be felt across Europe. Such a diplomatic agreement on Ukraine could make the West appear weak, especially if it is accompanied by the lifting of some sanctions against Russia. Pro-Russian Serb nationalists could interpret such a scenario as “a victory for Moscow’s strategy, reinforcing their anti-Western rhetoric and calls for regional reordering, such as aspirations for secession in Republika Srpska or undermining Kosovo’s sovereignty,” Milutinovic said.

    Dejan Sajinovic, a Bosnian columnist and editor for Nezavisne Novine, explained how Belgrade is most comfortable when there is an equilibrium of influence in the region, with both NATO members and Russia making concessions to Serbia. “When either side gains more strength, the balance is disturbed, and it usually means some sort of instability in the Balkans,” he said.

    Trump’s unpredictability suggests that the optimism of Dodik and other Serbs could be misplaced. Simultaneously, ongoing Russian influence in southeastern Europe will limit Belgrade and Banja Luka’s ability to move closer to Washington. With Trump’s return to the White House, Serb nationalists should therefore think carefully about what they wish for.



    In recent years, there has been growing concern over the United States’ policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in regards to its relationship with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik.

    Vucic and Dodik have been accused of undermining Bosnia’s sovereignty and stoking ethnic tensions in the region. Despite these concerns, the U.S. has maintained a relatively neutral stance towards both leaders, opting for a policy of engagement rather than confrontation.

    However, with the recent appointment of Richard Grenell as the U.S. Special Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo, there are fears that the U.S. may be shifting towards a more pro-Vucic and Dodik stance. Grenell has been criticized for his close ties to Vucic and Dodik, leading many to question whether he will prioritize their interests over those of Bosnia as a whole.

    As the U.S. continues to navigate its relationship with Serbia and Republika Srpska, it will be crucial for policymakers to consider the implications of tilting towards Vucic and Dodik. Will this shift in policy ultimately serve to stabilize the region or further exacerbate existing tensions? Only time will tell.

    What are your thoughts on this potential shift in U.S. Bosnia policy? Share your opinions in the comments below.

    Tags:

    1. US Bosnia policy
    2. Vucic
    3. Dodik
    4. Foreign policy
    5. Balkans
    6. Serbia
    7. Republika Srpska
    8. International relations
    9. US government
    10. Political alliances

    #U.S #Bosnia #Policy #Tilt #Vucic #Dodik