Tag: Wake

Louisville Cardinals (15-5, 8-1) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-5, 7-2)

Game Time: 7 p.m.

Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.

Television: ACC Network

Announcers: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Cory Alexander (analysis) and Jim Boeheim (analysis)

Officials: Roger Ayers, Bill Covington Jr., Clarence Armstrong

Favorite: Louisville by 8.5

Series: Louisville leads, 9-5

Last Meeting: Wake Forest won 90-65 on Jan. 20, 2024 in Winston-Salem

Series History:

Louisville

• G Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G Reyne Smith (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G J’Vonne Hadley (6-6, 215, Sr.)
• G/F Terrence Edwards Jr. (6-6, 205, Sr.)
• C James Scott (6-11, 220, So.)

Wake Forest

• G Ty-Laur Johnson (6-0, 170, So.)
• G Cameron Hildreth (6-4, 195, Sr.)
• G Hunter Sallis (6-5, 185, Sr.)
• F Tre’Von Spillers (6-7, 215, Sr.)
• F/C Efton Reid (7-0, 250, Sr.)

Statistics:

Wake Forest’s Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About Wake Forest:

If you just looked at Wake Forest’s computer rankings, you’d probably think the Demon Deacons were hovering close to .500 or were a team with a handful of very bad defeats and zero wins to write home about. You’d be wrong.

Wake Forest enters Tuesday night’s game against Louisville just one game behind the Cardinals in the ACC standings. Their five losses have all come against teams currently projected to make the NCAA tournament, with three of those coming against teams ranked in the top 15. Their non-conference season saw them score a Quad-I neutral court victory over Michigan and a solid neutral court victory over Minnesota.

So why does this Wake team enter Tuesday night ranked No. 71 in the NET Rankings and No. 73 on Ken Pom? The answer lies with their buy games.

Every power conference team schedules a handful of “buy games” against teams they are expected to beat. These teams usually aren’t great, but the teams Wake Forest scheduled this season were true bottom of the barrel squads. The Demon Deacons played five teams — Coppin State (No. 362), North Carolina A&T (No. 328), USC Upstate (No. 345), Western Carolina (No. 349) and Detroit Mercy (No. 332) — that rank in the bottom 5% of all 364 teams that play Division-I men’s college basketball. That is a surefire way to tank your standing in pretty much every predictive metric that exists.

The issue has frustrated both head coach Steve Forbes and the Wake Forest fan base to no end for weeks, but the reality is that the complaining isn’t going to change anything. The Demon Deacons need to stack Quad-I wins in a hurry, and they’ve only got two or three more opportunities to make that happen before it’s time for the ACC tournament. After losing a competitive game against Duke over the weekend, expect them to treat Tuesday night’s contest inside the Yum Center like it’s an elimination game.

Wake will come out swinging in this one, and they pack a serious enough punch to drop the Cards if they aren’t prepared to hit back effectively.

Unlike the last couple of years, the Deacons are a team that have relied more on their defense than their offense. Wake enters Tuesday night ranked 21st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They lead the ACC in steals, averaging 7.78 per league contest, and have the best turnover margin (+3.44), forcing conference opponents into an average of 14 turnovers a game. In league games, ACC opponents are shooting just 39.5 percent from the field and 30.7 percent from the field against Wake.

Because of the shift in identity, Forbes has opted to slow things down tremendously this season. Wake will no longer look to get up and down and generate a ton of looks in transition the way they did last season. Instead, they’re playing at just the 218th fastest-pace in Division-I. They want a deliberate game, and they will do everything in their power to force Louisville into playing a mostly halfcourt game.

While his outside shooting numbers have dipped significantly this season, Hunter Sallis is once again one of the top scorers in the ACC, averaging 18.9 ppg. Arguably the league’s biggest breakout star last season, the 6’5 Sallis will be the latest star that Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards will be tasked with slowing down. He’ll take several outside shots despite shooting the three at a 29.8 percent clip, but he’s most dangerous playing downhill and either drawing fouls or getting all the way to the rim.

Another familiar face, 6’4 senior guard Cam Hildreth, is also back and causing problems for Wake. The three-year starter has also seen his three-point shooting percentage dip this season, but he’s a creative scorer who has netted 20 or more points in three of Wake’s last five games. He also still has the ability to get hot from deep, as he showcased with a 6-of-8 performance from beyond the arc earlier this year against Miami.

Appalachian State transfer Tre’Von Spillers and second-year Deac Efton Reid are the team’s interior threats and the final two members of Wake Forest’s core four. Spillers is a nightly double-double threat who also leads the ACC in blocked shots. Reid is four inches taller at 7’0, and is less of an offensive threat but also an elite rim protector. The Cards simply cannot get caught over-penetrating against this frontcourt.

To sum up, Wake is very good at blocking shots, forcing turnovers, defending the perimeter, converting at the free-throw line and scoring around the rim. They struggle mightily with three-point shooting (353rd in the country), keeping opposing teams off the free-throw line, and despite having great size on the interior, they aren’t a terrific rebounding team.

Given all of the circumstances going into this one, I’ll be surprised if it isn’t a battle.

Notable:

—Louisville will wear uniforms that honor the Dirt Bowl, a summer tournament that is integral in the history of basketball in the city. It’s the second time U of L has worn the jerseys, and the first time the Cardinals have worn the gray colorway.

—Louisville has won nine consecutive games for the first time since a 10-game winning streak in 2020 that lasted from Jan. 7-Feb. 8 of that year.

—Louisville has won eight consecutive ACC games for the first time since that same 10-game winning streak in 2020.

—Wake Forest had never won consecutive games over Louisville before its current three-game winning streak in the series.

—Louisville is ranked in both major top 25 polls (No. 21 in AP, No. 22 in coaches) for the first time since the final week of January, 2021.

—Wake Forest head coach Steve Forbes is 3-2 in games against Louisville, and currently riding a three-game winning streak.

—Wake Forest is 3-3 in true road games so far this season, but 3-1 in ACC road games.

—Wake has won three straight road games for the first time since the 2003-04 season. A win Tuesday would mark the first time Wake has won four straight ACC road games since the 1996-97 season.

—Louisville should have beaten Wake Forest in the 1996 Sweet 16, but star center Tim Duncan both fouled out and walked near the end of the contest, but neither were called.

—Louisville is 8-3 in home games so far this season, and 3-1 in ACC home games.

—Chucky Hepburn is 14th in the country in total steals with 49, and 13th in the country in steals per game at 2.45.

—Reyne Smith is leading the country in made three-pointers per game (3.90), is second in total made three-pointers (78), and fourth in total three-point attempts (191).

—James Scott is second in the country and first in the ACC in dunks with 46.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Since 2004, Louisville is 133-0 when leading by more than 10 points at halftime.

—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 163 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 74, Wake Forest 64