The Detroit Lions will host the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. If the Lions want to come away with a victory and advance to the next round of the playoffs, they’ll need to execute the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

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Commanders offensive and defensive schemes

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Divisional round preview: Breaking down Commanders’ offensive and defensive schemes.

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Key 1: Welcome back Montgomery, continue to feature Gibbs

After missing the last four weeks, David Montgomery is healed up and ready to jump back into the Lions’ running back rotation. Heading into this Divisional game, Montgomery does not carry an injury designation and he has said he expects to be a full go against the Commanders.

While the Lions are welcoming Montgomery back with open arms—as they should—it’s hard to overlook the job Jahmyr Gibbs did during “Knuckles’” absence. In the three games to wrap up the season, Gibbs averaged 25.7 touches, 162.3 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns per game.

“Gibbs has certainly had a hot hand as of late and I expect David to come in and pick up where he left off,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “If the last two days are any indication, he’s of the right mindset right now, so we’ll see what it looks like today on the field and tomorrow as well, and we’ll finalize our plan after that.”

Running a duo backfield has always been the plan for the Lions, and while Gibbs was dominant in recent weeks, coaches believe that together the pair can take over games. And it’s hard to argue that point when you look at the numbers. They rank in the top 10 in virtually every rushing category, including checking at No. 2 in DVOA rushing efficiency.

On paper, defending the run is the Commanders’ biggest weakness on defense. Their wide edge alignments, as well as running stunts and twists in the interior, have led to them being unable to hold their gaps. On average, they allow 135.4 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL), 4.7 yards per attempt (28th), have allowed 64 runs of over 10+ yards (28th), and 2.08 rushing yards before contact (30th).

That 2.08 yards allowed before contact is especially notable, because Gibbs (3.3) and Montgomery (3.0) average at least 3.0 yards per carry after contact, meaning both Lions backs have the potential to average over five yards per carry against the Commanders.

Key 2: Be ready for the blitz

If stopping the run is the Commanders’ biggest defensive weakness, generating pressures is a close second.

Like the Lions, the Commanders lean on the blitz (32.9% of the time, sixth most) to help their front four create pressures. Unfortunately, it’s not overly effective, as Next Gen Stats only credits them with 189 pressures on the season (26th), though their pressure rate (33%) and sack totals (43) are much closer to the league average.

The Commanders’ defensive front will square off with a Lions offensive line that has only allowed 33 sacks on the season (10th fewest), and pressure on just 39% of blitzes (12th best).

Where the Lions have an advantage is how they adjust to the blitz—typically leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown. Against the blitz, St. Brown has accounted for 27 first downs, which is tied for the league lead (with Bucs’ Mike Evans) in 2024. As a result, the Lions pass offense is the third most effective against the blitz, and the most effective in the NFL when no pressure is applied.

Key 3: Pressure the single-high safety

In their past five games, the Lions have faced three defenses that feature a single-high safety over 50% of the time. Washington will also fall into this group, as they tend to lean on a single-high safety 55% of the time. This style of defense tends to be vulnerable in the short slot and deep corners, playing into the Lions’ strengths.

As we have seen against the Bears, Packers, and 49ers, the Lions will pepper the slot with targets for St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta, then test the safety’s range by running Jameson Williams on intermediate crossers and deep corner/seam routes.

Key 4: Win the YAC battle

As the Lions attack with the above approach, they ask their skill players to create yards after the catch (YAC). For the season, the Lions have accounted for 2,643 YAC (most in the NFL), with Williams leading the Lions receivers with 452 YAC and Gibbs leading all Lions players with 563 YAC (eighth most in the NFL).

On the opposite side of the ball, the Commanders have only allowed 1,639 YAC (best in the NFL), making this a true strength-on-strength battle.

Key 5: Contain and squeeze Jayden Daniels

As illustrated in our breakdown of the Commanders’ schemes, their entire offense is designed to optimize Jayden Daniels’ strengths.

“He understands what his skillset is, and he’s utilizing everybody on that offense to make him better,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said of Daniels. “It’s almost like he’s trying to be a point guard, and he’s just delivering and leading.”

Daniels’ well-rounded skill set has him in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation (he should probably win it), and his ability to run/scramble could be a real problem for the Lions. The Commanders will design power runs for him and ask him to execute Run/Pass/Option (RPO) plays, while also trusting him to scramble when he needs to. As a result, Daniels has averaged an impressive 6.0 yards per rushing attempt this season.

The Lions defend mobile quarterbacks with a contain-and-squeeze method, which involves the defensive line working upfield to pressure the quarterback while maintaining their gaps along the way. This leads to less or longer pressure but often results in a contained pocket. Then, if the coverage can hold up behind them, the defensive line continues to push upfield and squeeze their contained pocket, hoping to put the quarterback in a vulnerable spot. Unfortunately, the Lions’ success with this approach can be hit-and-miss because of their coverage style.

With the Lions playing man coverage (42%) more than any other team in the NFL, they leave themselves vulnerable to quarterback scrambles. According to NextGen Stats, the Lions have allowed 251 yards to quarterbacks on scrambles on early downs, with a 48.3% conversion rate, the fourth-highest allowed in the NFL. However, on third downs, the Lions’ defense buckles down and have only allowed 60 QB scramble yards (ninth-lowest mark in the league) and a 22.2% conversion rate (second-lowest)—which shouldn’t be overly surprising from the NFL’s No. 1 third-down defense.

If the Lions want to benefit from their success on third downs, they’ll need to make sure they’re winning on early downs—more specifically first down—against the Commanders.

Key 7: Win on first down

The Commanders put a heavy emphasis on winning on first down and staying ahead of the sticks, while keeping their options open for Daniels, and they’ve been successful in this approach. If Detroit is able to disrupt Washington’s early down success, they’ll impact the flow of their offense and put more stress on Daniels.

“Honestly, I think defensively the big thing is that first down is huge,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “You can say first down is huge. You would love to put yourself in an advantageous position on defense going into the second down […] You cannot get frustrated. We’ve done a good job of that. We accept the fact that they’re going to make a couple of plays. They’ve made them against everybody that they’ve played against. That’s OK. The most important thing is that we line back up and we go again. We go again, we go again, because the next play is the one that will change the game.”

Key 7: Blitz to stop the run

While most associate blitzing with rushing the passer, the Lions have been known to blitz in order to further enhance their contain-and-squeeze approach, as well as limiting the rushing lanes available to their running backs.

“Obviously sending more people at (Daniels) so you can make sure you close up as many lanes as you can. Man, we try our best to do that,” Glenn explained why he doesn’t plan on changing his approach to blitzing. “Against [Cardinals QB] Kyler [Murray] I think we did a really good job, obviously Buffalo [Josh Allen] we didn’t do as good of a job. We expect to do a really good job this week against Jayden (Daniels).”

Key 8: Be ready for no-huddle drives

One of the most effective ways that Washington hinders defense’s ability to be creative with their blitzing is by executing their no-huddle offense. While most teams save no-huddle for specific game situations, the Commanders will deploy it at will, hoping to catch the defense off guard.

The goal of the no-huddle drives is to interrupt the defense’s ability to change out personnel, get themselves into favorable matchups with different formations, and limit the defense’s communication, including the range of play calls the defense can make on the field while lined up to defend on the fly.

“Yeah, it’s the second communication, obviously, and they’ve gotten a number of people with that,” Campbell said of the Commanders’ no-huddle sets. “They’re back to the ball and then they’re running personnel on straight to the ball and then here they go.

“And I will tell you, there’s a number of things that have come up where they’re not holding the football and that’s a substitution. So, we’ll be on that, we’ll talk about all of that pregame, we’re going to be able to sub, getting the packages that we need to, and when we have our groups that come in, we know we’re matching immediately. We’re not getting in a huddle, we’re hearing the calls, we come out, and then we’re matching them because then the official will get out and we’re ready to play.”

Further aiding the Lions’ ability to communicate is the return of Alex Anzalone. The Lions’ defensive captain isn’t wearing the green dot play relaying helmet—that shifted to Jack Campbell—but Anzalone knows the Lions’ defensive scheme arguably better than any player on the field. So when the Lions need to get clear communication out in an effective manner, Anzalone is the man to get that done.

“Listen, he’s our captain. Any time your captain’s gone, you lose a little something, and obviously when he comes back you gain something,” Glenn said of Anzalone. “He understands me to a T, he understands how I’m going to call the game, he studies the game plan just as well as anybody, and if something goes down with my mic, he knows exactly what AG’s going to call, and he does a good job with that, and we have so much conversation on, ‘How do I see it?’ That he understands how I’m going to call the game.”

Key 9: Scheme returns for your All-Pro

Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp called the Commanders’ special teams unit the best in the NFL because of their ability to impact the game in all four phases: punt coverage, punt return, kickoff coverage, and kickoff return.

“I take everything into consideration,” Fipp elaborated. “All four plus field goal, field goal block, takeaway, giveaway, field position stuff, it’s all in mind. They’re number one. We’re two.”

That’s high praise for a kicking unit that is on their fourth kicker this season and has a punter kicking on a slightly down year. That being said, they’ve adapted to the new kickoff rules very well. Eckler is a second-team All-Pro kick returner and they’ve done well kicking the ball short and defending the field.

Meanwhile, the Lions have two All-Pro special teamers, as punter Jack Fox is a first-team honoree, and Kalif Raymond was nominated as the second-team All-Pro punt returner. While Raymond hasn’t had too many opportunities to return kicks, he is an explosion waiting to happen every time the ball is in his hands.

“Yeah, super excited to get him back,” Fipp said of Raymond. “I mean, having him back there, there’s nothing like that. He’s an explosive player he’s super competitive, you can feel his energy and urgency on those returns last game.”

The Commanders are surely aware of Raymond’s skill set, and could attempt to kick away from him, but that doesn’t bother Fipp, as he is excited for the opportunity to prove what he can draw up.

“Yeah, it’s great. We’ll take them, for sure. We’re excited, let’s see what we can get,” Fipp continued.

Key 10: Don’t let them hang around

The Commanders won 12 games in 2024, with seven of those victories coming in the final seconds, including five of those wins coming in the last five weeks.

• Week 2 vs. Giants: Walk-off field goal
• Week 8 vs. Bears: Hail Mary as time expires
• Week 15 vs. Saints: Defense stops a 2-point conversion with no time left
• Week 16 vs. Eagles: Scored a touchdown with six seconds remaining
• Week 17 vs. Falcons: Scored a touchdown in overtime
• Week 18 vs. Cowboys: Scored a touchdown with three seconds remaining
• Wild Card vs. Bucs: Walk-off field goal that hit the upright and went through

Bottom line: The Commanders know how to close out tight games.

What that means for the Lions is that they need to get an early lead and then try to open it up and keep their foot on the gas. This Lions team has several players and coaches who still feel the pain of what happened in the second half of last year’s NFC Championship game and don’t plan on reliving that experience.

“Yeah, I’ll tell you this, I don’t think anybody in that room, myself included, has forgotten that feeling of flying back on that airplane from San Francisco,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “And so, we’ve been, all year long, extremely detailed, extremely locked in, and to see it go up another level here this week, it’s been really impressive. So, our guys know this is exactly what we’ve been working so hard over the course of the Spring, Summer, over the course of the season, and so now we’re ready to go.”