How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Tuesday, 1/21/25

Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Eugene, Oregon

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +13

Oregon Ducks 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 15-3 (4-3)

Points For per Game: 78.2 ppg (69th)

Points Against per Game: 69.9 ppg (96th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 117.2 (29th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.8 (30th)

Strength of Schedule: 7th

Oregon Key Players:

G- Jackson Shelstad, So. 6’0, 1780: 12.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, 44.0% FG, 36.9% 3pt, 87.5% FT

From the moment he stepped on the court for Oregon as a freshman last year it seemed clear that Shelstad was destined to become Payton Pritchard 2.0. He has certainly been good for the Ducks but hasn’t quite risen to that level yet. Despite having the ball in his hands a lot, Shelstad still averages fewer than 3 assists per game so he isn’t an elite distributor yet. He was in a shooting slump to start the year but is now on fire in B1G play shooting 53% on 3’s and 92% on FTs in conference.

G- Keeshawn Barthelemy, Sr. 6’1, 180: 9.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 42.4% FG, 43.1% 3pt, 84.0% FT

It has now been longer for Barthelemy in an Oregon uniform than a Colorado one which seems hard to believe. In his 5th year of playing time, Barthelemy has gotten just a little bit better across the board. He has his best marks since his freshman year in all of: assist rate, turnover rate, steal rate, FT%, and 3pt%. He’s pretty much the perfect 3 and D secondary ball handler even if his height means he isn’t a plus rebounder.

G- Jadrian Tracey, Sr. 6’5, 210: 8.55 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 51.4% FG, 39.2% 3pt, 72.4% FT

Compared to Barthelemy, Tracey is a similar caliber shooter but is a little bigger and has been an elite finisher at the rim this year (62% on 2-pt shots). He turns the ball over a little more than you would like but otherwise there aren’t a lot of flaws in his game.

G- TJ Bamba, Sr. 6’5, 220: 9.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 34.4% FG, 26.4% 3pt, 71.2% FT

It seemed that Husky fans were done with Bamba after he transferred to Villanova but he spent just one season there and now is back with a different Husky rival. That’s not good news for UW who last saw Bamba when he scored 36 points on 20 shots in Hec Ed to beat Washington in the final game of the 2022-23 regular season. Bamba though is in a rough shooting slump hitting just 13/37 2-pt shots (35.1%) in B1G play and 2/17 from 3 (11.8%). It has been a different story on defense though where he leads the Big Ten and is at a career best by far.

F- Brandon Angel, Sr. 6’9, 225: 8.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.0apg, 56.7% FG, 37.1% 3pt, 82.6% FT

Washington fans also though they were done seeing Angel with the demise of the Pac but he transferred from Stanford to Oregon. Angel has shot at least 36% from deep in all 4 seasons he has been a major contributor and is also shooting nearly 70% on 2’s this year. His turnover rate is a lot higher than it should be for someone with his shot profile but he’s a clear offensive weapon as a shooter. One of his most similar player profiles in the KenPom database? Senior year Darnell Gant.

C- Nate Bittle, Sr. 7’0, 240: 13.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 52.0% FG, 30.5% 3pt, 81.7% FT

Both Nate Bittle and Franck Kepnang have battled injuries the last several years after Bittle won the backup job and facilitated Kepnang transferring to Washington. But Bittle is finally healthy (except for the receding hairline) and balling out as a senior. He is 2nd in the Big Ten in block rate and has become an elite rim protector. He’s a very good outside shooter which allows Oregon to play a true 5 out offense that puts a ton of stress on defenses. Leading the team in points, rebounds, and blocks per game for a top-25 squad? Pretty good.

The Outlook

The slog continues. Washington plays their 6th straight game against a team ranked inside the top-25 at KenPom tonight when they take on Oregon. Technically, the Ducks have the lowest KenPom rank of any of the 6 teams Washington has faced during this brutal stretch but it’s a rivalry game on the road so that doesn’t exactly help.

Oregon started off the year 9-0 with wins over Alabama and Texas A&M but have slowed down a little in Big Ten play. They’ve had 5 conference games in common with Washington so far and have matched UW’s result in 4 of them. Oregon similarly lost to Purdue, Illinois, and UCLA with a win over Maryland at home. The only difference was Oregon beating USC. Over their last 5 games, Oregon has wins by 4, 2, and 1 point plus losses at home by 7 and 32. They haven’t exactly been clicking on all cylinders in 2025 although UW is the worst team they’ve faced in more than 3 weeks.

This Oregon team is about as well-balanced as you could possibly put together. They’re 29th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency. They rank no better than 53rd in any major statistical category but no worse than 207th. A perusal of their KenPom page shows a ton of light green showing they’re between average and above average in every category but not elite at any one thing.

That applies to their division of labor as well. Jackson Shelstad is the nominal point guard but he’s averaging 2.9 assists per game. There are 4 Oregon players averaging between 2-3 assists per game but none over 3 which I’ve maybe never seen before. It’s a true equal opportunity offense with 4 guards capable of handling the ball who rotate between 3 spots. Bittle and Shelstad are in double figures scoring but there are another 6 players averaging between 6 and 10 points per game so anyone could break out on any given night.

If you only focus on Big Ten play though, Oregon doesn’t look anywhere close to their national ranking. The Ducks are 12th in conference play in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Like Washington, they’ve played a difficult part of the schedule but they’ve played more like a middle of the road B1G team than a conference contender. On offense they’re 14th in turnovers and 15th in rebounding with only their 3-point shooting keeping them afloat. On defense they’ve been elite at the rim (1st in 2pt%) but ghastly beyond the arc (17th in 3pt%).

Washington’s best chance in this game will be winning the possession advantage by forcing the Ducks into turnovers that lead to fast break points and playing even on the boards. Nate Bittle is a tough matchup as a 7-footer for a UW team still missing pieces but the rest of Oregon’s major contributors aren’t great rebounders. If there’s a game where UW breaks out to knock down a bunch of 3-point shots then this may be it. If UW can’t do it though then they can’t expect to have good luck around the rim.

I originally had some hope that Washington may have been able to use the 6-day break to get healthy. Franck Kepnang has returned to practice but apparently not with contact yet and is still likely a few weeks away despite being medically cleared. DJ Davis appears likely to miss his 3rd straight game with an ankle injury. And Dominique Diomande just started practicing this week and is likely unavailable as he learns the play calls. There’s a chance that Washington gets its pieces back and makes a run right as the schedule gets a little easier but it won’t start tonight.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 61, Oregon Ducks– 72