Tag: Win

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — For Pat Kelsey and Louisville, there’s no looking back. Reporters could be forgiven if they struggled to come up with questions for a coach whose team has faced little resistance in reeling off 10 straight wins by an average of 13 points per game.

Beginning against Georgia Tech on Saturday in Atlanta (3.45 p.m., The CW), Louisville begins a stretch of games against four opponents who are a combined 6-32 in ACC play and have won just one of their past 27 games.

After Georgia Tech, Boston College (six-game losing streak), Miami (10-game losing streak) and. N.C. State (five-game losing streak) don’t inspire much fear.

As politely as possible, Kelsey was asked what concerns he might have playing against opponents who are so, um, unaccomplished.

“We have a very tough opponent tomorrow at Georgia Tech, extremely dangerous,” Kelsey said. “And they play very well at home, and we know we have our work cut out for us. Our guys have been really locked in on the process of preparation for them. . . . I am concerned with one game. The next one. I don’t even know who we play after this. I never do. I may peek at the schedule, just to see what it looks like to help put my schedule together. But we could play the U.S. Olympic team in four days and I wouldn’t start preparing for them until after the buzzer sounds tomorrow night.”

The U.S. Olympic Team is not walking through that door.

Anyway, you get that picture. And it’s not an act. The only way to be successful is to keep focus on the task in front of you, whether it’s a game, a possession, a timeout, whatever.

Those of us on the sidelines, however, don’t have to do that so much. Sometimes, I think it’s instructive to back up a little bit and look at what has happened. And how it has happened, and why.

That’s why we’re going to turn to some statistics from CBBAnalytics.com to paint a picture of the Louisville basketball team over the past 10 games.

Shot Selection

Louisville’s shot chart over the past 10 games doesn’t differ much from its shot chart for the whole season. It’s a picture of modern basketball. You’ll see a ton of shots from three-point range, and a ton of shots at the rim. You’ll see some shots in the lane.

And you can count on your hands and feet (20 shots in 10 games) that were mid-range jumpers outside the lane.

Louisville has not been a particularly good shooting team this season (though it has been better during the 10-game winning streak).

But what it has done particularly well is take the shots it wants to take. If it can get good volume from threes or at the rim, and get to the foul line, the offense is working.

“We hunt great,” Kelsey said of his team’s shot selection. “It’s not just about this three or that two, but about great looks.”

This is what a disciplined offense looks like in 2025. A shot chart filled with shots in the lane, and shots outside the three-point line, and not much in between.

By contrast, below is what Louisville’s shot chart looked like last season. The shots came from everywhere. Now, there’s more than one way to run an offense. But, in general, when you see a shot chart that has no shape, it generally belies an offense that has no shape — though occasionally it will be showing you an excellent offense that is difficult to scout, and defend.

Sit in the Corner

The corner three-pointer is Nirvana in modern college (and pro) basketball. It has a shorter length. Players like to shoot it. And they make it at a higher percentage than any other shot beyond the arc.

So corner threes are “great looks” Louisville will hunt at every opportunity. During its winning streak, Louisville has taken 14% of its shots from the corner beyond the arc. That percentage is in the highest three percent in the nation during that time.

The Cards are shooting 43% on corner threes during the streak. Khani Rooths is 60% on those shots, Reyne Smith is 56%, Terrence Edwards if 46.7%and Chucky Hepburn 41.7%.

If you’re looking for Louisville’s best shooters at the rim, James Scott has made 78.% of his shots from inside 4 ½ feet over the past 10 games, and Hepburn has made 70.6%.

Sit in Timeout

Louisville has averaged 1.01 points per chance on possessions out of timeouts over the past 10 games, which ranks 21st in the nation. It seems hard to imagine 20 teams better out of timeouts than Louisville but that’s the stat. Over the past five games, Louisville’s 1.17 points per chance out of timeouts ranks third nationally.

(Note: That’s not a percentage of scores right out of timeouts. I don’t have the analytics service that provides that info.)

Regardless of rank, Louisville’s effectiveness out of timeouts has not gone unnoticed.

For the season as a whole, Louisville is averaging 1.04 nationally in points per chance out of timeouts, good for 31st nationally. And 59% of Louisville’s shots coming out of timeouts have been three-point attempts, good for second nationally.

How does this compare to recent years? Louisville ranked No. 153 in this category last season and No. 209 the season before.

Looking at Lineups

Louisville’s most-used lineup has also been its best statistically. Which is nice. But it’s not always something you can take for granted at any level of basketball.

The lineup of Hepburn, Smith, Hadley, Edwards and Scott has had a plus-minus of plus-99 over the past 10 games. It has logged more than twice as many minutes as any other lineup.

But the interesting thing about Louisville’s team is that, during this 10-game streak, it has four other lineups that are plus-83 or higher. The lineup of Hepburn, Smith, Edwards, Hadley and Traore has been plus-93 — and that lineup has the highest overall rating of any other group. It also has the highest effective field-goal percentage.

The best defensive lineup, by rating, is a group that includes Hepburn, Smith, Edwards, Traore and Scott – a group that also leads Louisville in steal percentage, and blocked shot percentage. Lineups where Louisville uses Noah Waterman and Hadley, or Scott and Rooths, or Scott and Hadley together, fair a bit worse on defense.

No matter how you break it down, of course, Louisville is playing well. And rest assured, Louisville’s staff, which is meticulous about analytics, knows far more than this. But Kelsey downplays the streak.

“We’re just trying to be great at the next thing we do, that’s it,” he said. “I mean, that success that we’ve had in the past is over. Whether it’s at a past program or 10 wins in a row, it doesn’t guarantee we’re going to win tomorrow. If we’re not ready to play against Georgia Tech, we’re going to get our butt kicked.”

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