Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks

The Houston Cougars will put their 9-0 conference record on the line when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday. Houston has been the class of the Big 12 thus far, and their recent road wins over Kansas and West Virginia further prove that. As for Texas Tech, they are currently 7-2 league play with recent wins at home over Oklahoma State and TCU. An upset win for the Red Raiders would tighten up the Big 12 regular season title race, and they may have a good chance to accomplish that in this matchup with the Cougars.

Houston is coming off 2 huge road wins, including a miraculous overtime win at Allen Fieldhouse against Kansas, so you could consider this to be a let down spot for the Cougars. The injury report is also important to monitor in this contest, as Emmanuel Sharp has been dealing with an ankle injury and was limited to 3 points in just 18 minutes in their last game vs West Virginia. Sharp is key for this Cougars team that lacks perimeter scoring depth outside of LJ Cryer, so consider this a big loss if he is either limited again or is unable to play in this contest.

Houston’s defense is #1 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, but Texas Tech’s offense may have one of the better setups to succeed against it. There are 3 important qualities for teams to have in order to generate offensive success against the Cougars, and those are ball security, 3-point shooting, and offensive rebounding. The Red Raiders grade out well in all 3 categories, as they are 80th nationally in turnover rate, 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage, and 22nd on the offensive glass. The spacing the Red Raiders have is especially important in this matchup against the Cougars’ rim denial defense, and forcing the Cougars’ bigs to guard on the perimeter can potentially break down Kelvin Sampson’s defense to an extent.

Texas Tech is dealing with an injury of their own, as Darrion Williams is questionable for this contest after missing last game vs TCU. While he is an important player for the Red Raiders in the long term, his loss may not be felt as much in this contest. Coach Grant McCasland has elected to use a 2 big man lineup during Williams’ absence, and this should help the Red Raiders significantly on the defensive glass. Houston is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, but Texas Tech’s frontcourt combo of JT Toppin and Federiko Federiko has a great chance at limiting the Cougars in that area.

While it is scary to bet against Houston, that is exactly what we are going to do here with Texas Tech as a 9.5 point underdog. The favorable matchup the Red Raiders may have along with this potentially being a letdown spot for the Cougars is too much to ignore. If the Red Raiders get hot from 3-point range, they have potential to pull off the road upset, but my official pick will be taking the points.

Texas Tech vs Houston prediction: Texas Tech +9.5 (-110) at time of publishing, playable at that number

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