The Yankees attended Max Scherzer’s recent workout. What does it mean?

Max Scherzer recently threw in a pitching workout at Cressey Sports Performance hoping to showcase the gas still left in the tank. The Yankees along with at least seven other teams sent scouts and were reportedly impressed by what they saw from the 40-year-old free agent. What should we make of the Yankees’ purported interest in the future Hall of Famer?

2024 Statistics: 9 games, 43.1 IP, 3.95 ERA (101 ERA+), 4.18 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.154 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR

2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 23 games, 128 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.170 WHIP, 2.1 fWAR

Previous Contract: Signed three-year, $130 million contract with Mets on December 1, 2021. Traded to Rangers along with $35.5 million in cash for Luisangel Acuña on July 29, 2023 and opted into $43.3 million player option as part of the deal.

There is no doubting that Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers of his generation and indeed of all time. His 3,407 strikeouts rank 11th in MLB history. He is one of 11 pitchers to win at least three Cy Young Awards and he is one of four pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs, multiple World Series rings, multiple no-hitters, and multiple All-Star selections. However, at 40 years old and coming off multiple injuries, it is increasingly uncertain which version of Scherzer will show up with each additional year he plays.

Scherzer managed to stave off decline far longer than most pitchers, but it appears Father Time has started to catch up with the righty in his age-38 and 39 seasons over the last two years. Through his first 15 seasons in the bigs, Scherzer pitched to a 3.11 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 29.5-percent strikeout rate, and just over 5.2 fWAR per 32 games. Over the last two seasons, his ERA sits at 3.81, FIP at 4.29, and xFIP at 4.02 while his 2.2 fWAR in 2023 represents the lowest total in an un-shortened season since his rookie year with the Diamondbacks in 2008. His average fastball velocity has declined by about two mph since originally signing with the Mets and he has seen his home run per nine rate jump from 1.01 to 1.61 despite a fly ball rate that has stayed relatively stable his whole career.

The truth is that the injuries are starting to pile up for Scherzer. He was shut down for the final three weeks of the 2023 regular season with a teres major strain, and though he made it back for three appearances in the postseason, he was again shut down with a back ailment (though he did manage to secure his second ring). Following the conclusion of the season, Scherzer underwent back surgery to repair a herniated disc, and recovery from this procedure as well as thumb soreness and a nerve issue in his triceps delayed the start of his season to June 23rd. The nerve issue continued to flare up which paired with arm fatigue caused more missed time before a hamstring strain ended his season early.

Even with this injury-related decline, Scherzer still represents a significant upgrade over Marcus Stroman, the current odd man out in the rotation. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projection system estimates that each will pitch a similar inning workload but tabs Scherzer for 2.1 fWAR vs. Stroman’s 0.8. Stroman’s calling card includes the ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park, two skills which regressed heavily in Yankee Stadium. Without those floor-raising attributes, Stroman has little if anything to offer ahead of Scherzer, the latter’s projected 25-percent strikeout rate, 3.97 ERA, and 3.98 FIP considerably better than Stroman’s projections.

The major stumbling block is cost. Fellow one-time Met teammate Justin Verlander just signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Giants following a similarly injury-affected campaign. This suggests that Scherzer could match if not top that deal on the open market — both are the elder statesmen pitchers in the league yet it is clear teams still think they can tap into the reservoirs of talent that have made each a future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Given that the Yankees are actively trying to shed Stroman’s $18 million contract — deemed too steep for a sixth starter as they try to reallocate that money toward other parts of the roster — it is hard to see how Scherzer would fit into the Yankees’ rotation puzzle. They still do not have a left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster and currently intend on entering the season with DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera as the principal options to start at third base. Of course, one can never have too much pitching, especially when you look at the time lost to injury in 2024 for Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil, but there are far more pressing issues than upgrading the sixth starter.

The Yankees’ mere presence at the workout indicates a base level of interest, but all else being equal I’d imagine Scherzer is returning for his age-40 season with the intention of signing with someone who can guarantee he will start every fifth day. Taking all this into consideration, I reckon we can file this one under the Yankees doing their due diligence … for now.