Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at New Mexico on Friday night at the Pit. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Nevada (8-6, 0-3 MW) at New Mexico (11-3, 3-0)

When: Friday, 8 p.m. Pacific time

Where: The Pit (15,411 capacity)

TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM

Online: None

Betting line: No line posted yet

Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Keep Dent out of paint: New Mexico’s Donovan Dent leads the Mountain West in points (19.1) and assists (7.1) and is the best guard in the conference in getting into the lane. In addition to his 6.6 free throw attempts per game, 103 of Dent’s 184 shots have come in the paint and is shooting 60.2 percent on those attempts. Nevada’s on-ball defense, which was not great against Utah State, must be elite against Dent with Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster likely getting the assignment of slowing down Dent, who had a 40-point game against VCU two weeks ago and also tallied 30 against Arizona State. Dent would be the MW player of the year if the season ended today, so this is a big challenge for the Wolf Pack, which must keep Dent from getting a head of steam toward the basket, which is his strength.

2. No major runs allowed: Nevada has only played two road games this season, losses to LMU and Wyoming that drew a combined 5,722 fans, not exactly stressful environments. The Pit has one of the best environments in the West and is averaging 11,628 fans at home where it is 7-1 this season and beat Nevada by 34 points last season. This Wolf Pack team has not faced an environment like this and is probably in a fragile state having lost five of its last seven games after a 6-1 start. Nevada can’t allow New Mexico to go on a 10-0 or 12-2 run to get its crowd into the game, and that crowd is likely to be rowdy given it’s the 1,000th game at the Pit as former Lobos coach Steve Alford returns to Albuquerque. Nevada can’t afford a 5-minute scoring drought that allows New Mexico to blow this one open.

3. Efficient star play: Nevada’s two leading scorers – Nick Davidson and Kobe Sanders – must play like stars. As we pointed out, that duo averages 35.1 points per game in wins and 23.3 per game in losses, with the pairing shooting 60 percent in victories and 36.3 percent in defeats. So far in MW play, Davidson and Sanders have combined to make just 27-of-73 shots in league play, which is 37 percent. That won’t cut it against a New Mexico defense that is more solid than good (92nd in KenPom, which ranks fifth in the MW). The Lobos create 17.1 turnovers per game (top 20 in the nation), but if you don’t turn it over against them, you can have offensive success. Davidson and Sanders must play like stars.

Prediction

New Mexico 79, Nevada 69: New Mexico has gotten off to a solid start to the season with wins over UCLA (ranked 15th in the nation), VCU, USC and Colorado State (on the road). The Lobos have a bad loss, at home in overtime to New Mexico State. But that’s the only poor game New Mexico has played this season, with the Lobos defense not showing up in that one. Nevada’s not in top form heading into this game, so while a win is possible if the Wolf Pack shoots to its potential, there’s not much recent evidence Nevada will make this a close game. Having a single-possession turnover number is essential if the Wolf Pack is going to spring the road upset. Season record: 8-6

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.