Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts UNLV on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

UNLV (11-10, 5-5 MW) at Nevada (11-10, 3-7)

When: Saturday, 7 p.m.

Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM

Online: None

Betting line: None posted yet

Three keys for Nevada to win

1. Damage down low: The Wolf Pack has been built to score inside first, which will open things up on the outside next. The season hasn’t necessarily played out that way, although Nevada has been far more effective inside the arc than outside of it in league play. The Wolf Pack is making 60.9 percent of its “close twos” and 39.3 percent of its “long twos,” both well above average. It’s shooting 32.1 percent from three, well below average. And the good news for Nevada in this matchup is UNLV does not defend the paint well. In fact, it’s a weakness as Rebels rank 203rd in the nation in two-point defense. UNLV does have a big center in Jeremiah Cherry (6-foot-11, 280 pounds), but the Rebels have been hurt in the post in their 10 losses, allowing foes to shoot 57.1 percent inside the arc in those games.

2. Even at point guard: Dedan Thomas Jr. is an elite point guard for UNLV, averaging 16.2 points and 4.7 assists on 42.5 percent shooting, including 35.1 percent from three. There isn’t much difference in his stats in wins and losses, as he’s actually scored better and more efficiently in defeats. The same cannot be said about Nevada’s primary point guard Kobe Sanders, who started the season in elite fashion but has experienced struggles since. The fifth-year senior averaged 16.7 ppg on 52.9 percent shooting in November; 12.6 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting in December; and 13.4 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting in January. Tyler Rolison sniped a good share of the point guard minutes in Wednesday’s loss at Boise State, although that didn’t jolt more out of Sanders, who was held to nine points (third lowest this season) on 3-of-9 shooting. If Nevada can match Thomas at point guard production, that’s a plus.

3. Game-winning plays late: This is a matchup of “What Could Have Been” teams, as Nevada and UNLV are both 11-10 with each 2-6 in contests decided by six points or less (that mark improves to 3-6 for Nevada if you include its 11-point overtime win at Fresno State). While Wolf Pack fans are plenty familiar with Nevada’s close-game struggles, UNLV has been just as bad, losing its last three games by a combined nine points, including contests to Utah State and New Mexico, the MW’s top-two teams. There’s also a one-point loss at Dayton, a five-point loss to Northwestern and a six-point loss at Memphis. So, this season could look a lot different if UNLV could close. Same could be said for Nevada, which played six straight games decided by six points or less/overtime (going 2-4) before playing four straight that have not been close. Nevada will likely be tested in late-game execution again in this one.

Prediction

Nevada 67, UNLV 65: Incredibly, Nevada is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games, a major underachievement given its talent level and the quality with which it played over the first month of the season. The Wolf Pack showed a lot more defensive verve in its midweek loss at Boise State but is coming off arguably the worst back-to-back offensive games of the Steve Alford era. UNLV, as it typically is, has been extremely inconsistent in 2024-25 with some great showings and some terrible ones. But this team is 2-9 in Quad 1 or 2 games, so I’ll take Nevada in a close one. Season record: 14-7

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.