Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Mississippi State

Missouri bounced back from a road loss at Texas by defeating Ole Miss at home last weekend, 83-75. Now, the team will head back out, looking to build on their resume away from Mizzou Arena.

That’ll be much easier said than done, as the Tigers’ trip takes them to Mississippi State. MU is 1-9 all-time in Starkville, the only win coming during the black and gold’s first year in the SEC on Feb. 13, 2013. The last eight meetings at Humphrey Coliseum have all been decided by double digits and Missouri has scored more than 62 points just once.

The Bulldogs have, for the most part, beaten the teams you’d expect them to beat and lost to the teams you’d expect them to lose to this year. Their victories include Utah, SMU, Pittsburgh, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and South Carolina (twice). Their losses include Butler, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama, who edged the team out on Wednesday, 88-84. Mizzou will get the chance to show which group it belongs with on Saturday.

With MSU looking to protect its homecourt, the Tigers expect an uphill battle.

“Chris Jans does an amazing job, and he has been his entire career,” head coach Dennis Gates said. “Mississippi State is a tremendous team, well-balanced defensively. We know what they bring to the table, their grit, their toughness. That’s something that is an identity of their program. Always has and always will be.”

TIP TIME INFORMATION

Who: No. 20 Missouri (16-4, 5-2 SEC) at No. 14 Mississippi State (16-5, 4-4)

When: Saturday, Feb. 1, 12 p.m. CT

Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi

TV: SEC Network

Series: Mississippi State leads, 14-6

KenPom Prediction: Mississippi State 78, Missouri 72

SEC AVAILABILITY REPORT

Mizzou

Trent Burns – Out

Mississippi State

Kanye Clary – Out

PROJECTED STARTERS

Missouri Tigers

Mississippi State Bulldogs

BY THE NUMBERS

Mizzou	Category	Mississippi State
83.2	PPG	80.8
69.0	Opponent PPG	70.4
48.2	FG%	46.0
37.3	3PT%	32.1
71.9	FT%	69.6
2.0	Rebounding Margin	3.6
1.2	AST/TO Ratio	1.5
27	NET Rank	24
30	KenPom Rank	25
23	Offensive Efficiency Rank	18
56	Defensive Efficiency Rank	44
173	Tempo Rank	188

KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Contain Josh Hubbard. The sophomore guard erupted in the Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama, dropping a career-high 38 points on 14-28 shooting. Despite possessing a 5-foot-11 frame, Hubbard has been one of the toughest players to defend in the SEC since stepping into the league as a true freshman last season, averaging 17.2 points per game for his career. He started this year on a hot streak from deep but has since cooled off, only making 31.6% of his 3-pointers in conference play. One key to defending Hubbard might be forcing him to settle for shots from outside — Mississippi State is 4-5 when he takes at least 10 triples in a game. Gates mentioned denying him catch-and-shoot looks by deflecting incoming passes could help as well.

“He’s one of the best scorers in our conference,” Gates said. “I think you just gotta get a hand up, ultimately. And in those situations, you can’t foul. He’s drawing a lot of fouls from behind the arc as well. He does a little side twist, and sometimes defenders clip his legs. And we have to give them space while also being vertical and contesting the right way, without following his lower body. So we gotta do a great job of that.”

2) Get after the offensive glass. MSU’s been an average team on the defensive boards this season, ranking 201st with a defensive rebounding rate of 30.3%. That mark, understandably, has climbed to 33.6% in SEC play, which still puts the team in the middle of the pack in the conference. However, over the Bulldogs’ last two games, South Carolina and Bama both pulled down at least 50% of available offensive rebounds. Mizzou’s been an average team going after its misses in league play, but had a major advantage over Ole Miss in that category in its last game, 11-5. Mississippi State boasts a big front line in 6-foot-7 RJ Melendez, 6-foot-7 Cam Matthews, 6-foot-10 Michael Nwoko and 6-foot-10 junior forward KeShawn Murphy. But if the Tigers can rack up second-chance points, it could pose a serious problem for the Bulldogs.

“(They) are one of the teams that I feel like can match our physicality in the SEC,” graduate senior center Josh Gray said. “So it’s just going to be a game of punches and counter punches. So we just gotta stay in it.”

3) Fire away from distance. Mississippi State has struggled to slow down 3-point shooters this year, allowing opponents to make 35.2% of their treys, which ranks 257th in the country according to KenPom. Triples have accounted for 37.9 of points scored against the Bulldogs in SEC play, the second-highest amount in the conference. The Crimson Tide went 15-31 from long range in their four-point win over MSU on Wednesday — opponents have made at least 10 threes and shot at least 35.7% from deep in each of the team’s five losses this year. Missouri, led by graduate senior guard Caleb Grill, has been the second-best 3-point shooting team in the conference to this point, connecting on 38.6% of their looks from beyond the arc and treys accounting for 45.1% of their field goal attempts. If MU has even an average day from outside, it could make it tough for the Bulldogs to keep up.

PREDICTION

This game feels like a coin flip to me. On paper, it seems like Mizzou is strong in some spots where Mississippi State is weak, but the black and gold’s track record in Starkville is tough to ignore. I’ll take the Tigers edging out the Bulldogs in a narrow 80-78 victory.

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