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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
The NFL Most Valuable Player is a quarterback award. It is virtually impossible for a non-QB to be more valuable than the most valuable quarterback. The standard MVP conversation fails to encapsulate incredible performances by non-quarterbacks or tangle with questions regarding each position’s value. That’s why I like to make a ballot that goes beyond five players. Far beyond.
For the third consecutive season, I’ve created my (hypothetical) 100-player MVP ballot. You can view last year’s here.
Before we dive in, here’s how I define value and create this list.
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This list is purely descriptive based on the 2024 regular season. All that matters is who generated the most value this season.
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Value represents the difference between a player and an average starter at that player’s position. That means a QB1 will be a virtual lock to be ranked ahead of a TE1, because the difference between the best and average quarterback is much larger than the difference between the best and average tight end. It also caps the QB starters to half the league, which is different than if we measured value over replacement. And frankly, I find it more fun.
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To create my initial rankings, I ranked players by position and slotted them into an overall list. I leaned on a wide variety of quantitative metrics — win rates, receiver tracking metrics, coverage data, various EPA measures — along with my own analysis. Qualitative considerations such as All-Pro teams and PFF grades were considered, too.
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I shared my initial list with several colleagues and trusted talent evaluators in NFL front offices to get their expert input. I moved players based on their feedback, particularly if multiple people told me I misjudged a certain player.
Let’s dive into the ballot, starting with the No. 1 question: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or another QB?
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
- Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
- Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
- Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
- Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
- Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
- Aaron Donald, DL, Los Angeles Rams
- Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
- Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
- T.J. Watt, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
- Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
- Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
- Devante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
- Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
- Nick Bosa, DL, San Francisco 49ers
- Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
- D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
- Chase Young, DL, Washington Football Team
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
- Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
- Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
- Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
- Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
- Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
- J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
- George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
- A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
- Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers
- Jamal Adams, S, Seattle Seahawks
- Jaire Alexander, CB, Green Bay Packers
- Xavier Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins
- Myles Garrett, DL, Cleveland Browns
- DeForest Buckner, DL, Indianapolis Colts
- Justin Simmons, S, Denver Broncos
- Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears
- Darius Leonard, LB, Indianapolis Colts
- Devin White, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals
- Micah Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys
- Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers
- Javon Kinlaw, DL, San Francisco 49ers
- Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots
- Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
- Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
- Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
- Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
- Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
- Kwity Paye, DL, Indianapolis Colts
- Greg Rousseau, DL, Buffalo Bills
- Patrick Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos
- Jaycee Horn, CB, Carolina Panthers
- Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Los Angeles Chargers
- Trevon Moehrig, S, Las Vegas Raiders
- Richie Grant, S, Atlanta Falcons
- Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
- Drake London, WR, USC
- Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
- John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
- David Bell, WR, Purdue
- Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
- Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
- Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
- Kayvon Thibodeaux, DL, Oregon
- Aidan Hutchinson, DL, Michigan
- George Karlaftis, DL, Purdue
- Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
- Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
- Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
- Brandon Joseph, S, Northwestern
- Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
- Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
- Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
- Mohamed Ibrahim, RB, Minnesota
- Carson Strong, QB, Nevada
- Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina
- Phil Jurkovec, QB, Boston College
- Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
- Sam Hartman, QB, Wake Forest
- Sean Rhyan, OT, UCLA
- Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
- Kayode Awosika, OT, Buffalo
- Cade Mays, G, Tennessee
- Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
- Zion Nelson, OT, Miami (FL)
- Myron Cunningham, OT, Arkansas
Tags:
- NFL MVP candidates 2024
- Top 100 NFL players
- MVP contenders
- NFL season predictions
- Player rankings
- Football awards
- Elite athletes
- Pro football stars
- Player performance analysis
- NFL MVP race
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