Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks and Predictions — 1/3

Before we dive into a massive Saturday slate, there’s value on the college basketball odds board on Friday.

In particular, I’m targeting three games — including Wichita State vs. Temple — on the Friday schedule.

So, here’s my top 3 college basketball best bets, featuring picks and predictions for Friday, January 3.

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Top 3 College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

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This Friday night meeting is the AAC opener for both the visiting Shockers and the host Owls. Neither team had a banner non-conference campaign, so getting off to a strong start in league play is paramount to both squads.

Wichita State has two key matchup advantages here that — along with my own power ratings — push this into being a bet for me.

Defensively, the Shockers are a relatively compact group that wants opponents to beat them with jumpers over the top. They rank 46th in near-proximity attempt rate allowed, per Haslametrics, compared to 302nd in 3-point attempt rate.

Add in shot-blocking menace Quincy Ballard, and the rim is a tough place to score against Wichita State.

Additionally, Wichita’s sound defensive structure means the Shockers rarely foul. Per KenPom, they’re 28th in the country in defensive free throw rate.

Easy points are hard to come by.

Both of those factors are encouraging signs against Temple’s downhill slashing attack. Temple is hugely reliant on getting to the bucket and the charity stripe to score.

Jamal Mashburn Jr.’s pull-up shooting can be an equalizer against many opponents, but Wichita has multiple rangy stoppers to throw at him in Corey Washington and Harlond Beverly.

Temple recently got guard Lynn Greer III eligible after a nine-game suspension to open the year. His addition aided Temple’s depth, but the Owls are just 2-2 against the spread with him in the lineup. He’s not a perimeter shooter, so he fails to address Temple’s biggest need.

I make the Shockers a narrow favorite here. Taking them at +1 or on the moneyline at even money is appealing.

Pick: Wichita State +1.5 (Play to -1)

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I’m headed far off the beaten path for the night’s second wager. Two Division I neophytes meet as NEC foes for the first time, as this is Mercyhurst’s debut season at college basketball’s highest level. Meanwhile, Stonehill has only been D-I since 2022-23.

The most important factor here is each team’s pace. Specifically, both squads are extremely deliberate on the offensive end, intentionally milking the shot clock to shorten the game. Both rank outside the top 300 in average possession length on offense; Mercyhurst lands at a glacial 358th in that metric.

Those dueling crawling tempos should lead to an extremely low-possession game.

Mercyhurst is especially effective there; against similarly slow foes, the Lakers have played some serious slogs. Games against Canisius (62 possessions), Air Force (58) and Sacramento State (62) hopefully serve as indicators for how this contest will unfold.

As always with an under bet, the fear is hot perimeter shooting. Stonehill has loaded its roster with bombers; the Skyhawks have six players who have made 10+ triples while shooting over 35% from beyond the arc.

Mercyhurst is not quite to that level of lethality, but the Lakers can also get hot in stretches.

Fortunately, both teams make an effort to run foes off the arc. If they can each limit the opposition’s attempts from deep, that should limit the risk of a downpour of 3s.

Pick: Under 134 (Play to 131)

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The final selection of the night is somewhat of a simpler handicap. In short, I believe Michigan State is the better (and better-coached) team, and thus it should be a road favorite in this spot against the Jekyll-and-Hyde Buckeyes.

The Spartans might even be undervalued at this point despite being a top-20 team analytically.

They’ve simply been awful shooting the basketball so far this season, ranking 325th nationally in 3-point percentage against Division I opponents. ShotQuality expects the Spartans to shoot 5.9% higher from beyond the arc, meaning Michigan State’s offense could be a sleeping giant.

The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are still riding the wave of wonderful shooting splits. Also per ShotQuality, Ohio State is expected to experience harmful regression on both ends of the court. Offensively, the Buckeyes have made 4.7% over expectation, while opponents are 5.5% under their expected conversion rate.

Those shooting splits shouldn’t be the sole reason to make a bet, but paired with my overall perception of these two teams, they add to what already is a side with some value tonight.

Ohio State has impressively displayed a “next man up” mentality in the backcourt. Meechie Johnson Jr. took a leave of absence from the team, and Micah Parrish missed the Buckeyes’ win over Indiana State (game-time decision tonight, ankle injury).

That slow sapping of depth typically makes an impact over time, though.

Combining those factors – my handicap of Michigan St. -2, pending shooting regression, Ohio State personnel limitations – and I’ll back the Big Ten road team.

Pick: Michigan State +2.5 (Play to -1)